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2013 Quarterback Rankings

April 22, 2013

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Quarterback

Prototype in the NFL: Aaron Rodgers

Best In Class

Best Long Ball: Tyler Bray                              Best Pocket Awareness: Matt Barkley

Best Reader of Defenses: Matt Barkley        Best Accuracy: Matt Barkley

Best Release: Matt Scott                                   Best Open Field Runner: Matt Scott

1. Matt Barkley USC #7 6’2 ½ 227 Sr.

Comparison: Andy Dalton

Stats: Pac-10

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3273

63.6

36

15

14

8.46

157.6

2011

3528

69.1

39

7

8

7.90

161.22

2010

2791

62.6

26

12

16

7.40

141.2

2009

2735

59.9

15

14

17

7.77

131.3

Combine: Didn’t work out due to shoulder injury.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6024

227

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes: #2 QB by ESPN in ’09 class, has been a star at Steve Clarkson’s QB Academy last year following Dayne Crist around, this year being the star. One scout compares him to Matt Stafford coming out of Highland Park. Is a strong Christian who won’t be a partier in college. Was the star of the All American game winning MVP with 2 TD passes and more importantly was the best QB at the practices. #1 in ESPN 150 for ’09. Had a great start to his career as he was named the starter from the get go, beating out Mitch Mustain and others for the job, and playing very well vs. San Jose St. (233 1/0 78%). Had an even better game vs. Ohio St. in week 2, not statistically (195 0/1 48%) but when it mattered most, as he led his team on a 14 play 86 yard drive to get the go ahead TD with 1 minute left in the game. He is incredibly poised for a freshman, and with his athleticism and arm, he continues to look the part of a future #1 Overall Pick 9/13/09. Loved the kid the moment I saw him as he is much like Stafford years ago at Georgia in that they just look like NFL QBs, even at the age of 18. Struggled a bit as a freshman but I was impressed with his poise and leadership ability coming into a top notch program and beating out others for the starting gig. Had a much improved Soph year in ’10 (2,791 62% 26/12) yet did fall off considerably in the final few games of the year throwing 8 of his 12 picks in the final 5 games he played (missed the ND game due to injury). Enters the 2011 season ranked #6 on my Big Board and the #2 QB only behind Andrew Luck. In the 2011 Minnesota game was quick to his 2nd read for a short 5 yd catch (9:45 1st), seems to throw a lot of passes a bit high-not extremely high but at about their head or a little higher instead of at the numbers, nice timing throw for 5 yards on quick slant to Woods (7:40 1st), showed strong arm on 43 yd 9 route TD only underthrowing it a tad as Woods did have to slow a bit for it (9:31 2nd), threw 2 point conversion at the WR’s feet ruining play (9:25 2nd), nice throw to the outside shoulder of WR as he saw the CB breaking on the ball (1:40 2nd), perfectly thrown quick pass to Woods for 2 yd TD catch in corner of the end zone (0:40 2nd), good pass in traffic perfectly to Woods (13:07 3rd), delay of game (2:09 3rd), overthrew open TE (1:43 3rd), beautifully threaded pass on seam route to TE that he couldn’t hold on to when he got hit (7:52 4th), and a great throw rolling to his left and throwing that awkward throw for a strike for 18 yd curl on 3rd and 14 late in a close game (3:56 4th). His numbers (304 75% 3/0) are elite but his performance wasn’t anything more than good as he had some very nice throws but most were short slants and WR screens that inflated his numbers dramatically. In the 2011 Cal game he threw a picture perfect 32 yd fade dropping it over the shoulder against solid coverage-NFL throw (13:13 1st), twice in the 1st Q he had a lot of pressure and threw ahead of the WR trying to give him a chance for a great chance but essentially avoiding the sack, perfect throw on 9 route that just wasn’t open actually hitting WR in the hands on 43 yd route that was INC (0:05 1st). In the 2011 Notre Dame game had great play on naked bootleg with nothing available he sucked DE in to him and forced him to jump on fake of pass then ran around him for 1st down (11:21 1st), good mobility moving around in pocket then avoided DT to get to open field where he juked LB Manti Te’o to get 5 yds out of nothing (8:52 1st), easy 3 yd TD to wide open TE, threw ball too high on open 15 yd out but WR adjusted nicely, great recognition of open WR on bootleg throwing easy 5 yd TD (1:01 1st), threw a little high to TE in flat on TE screen, started 8-8 with 2 TDs, perfect throw on 15 yd curl after play action (11:50 2nd), barely overthrew open WR on post route, good quick slant though a little high but right in stride for YAC (7:42 2nd), just missed on 15 yd fade, easy 10 yd quick slant in stride, again showed good mobility on naked bootleg with no one open he made a LB miss then dove for a 1st on 3rd and 1-not much speed but surprisingly elusive (12:50 4th), led field reversal of WR screen gone wrong blocking someone for his teammate showing heart, good 25 yd post but did throw a little low forcing diving catch, solid throw away avoiding sack as defender had him in his grasp (9:16 4th), great job stepping up in pocket, reading coverage, and finding wide open RB at front pylon yet he juggled it for INC (8:38 4th), beautiful 16 yd fade for TD-did force WR to dive for it but was an “easy” dive as it was just out in front of him (7:50 4th), great job burning clock down to 1-2 seconds before he snapped ball late in game. A very good game again by Barkley as the guy is just incredibly efficient completing 70% of his passes, not throwing ints, not fumbling, and not taking sacks. He isn’t the runner Luck is and isn’t as accurate as a Sam Bradford but he is still a franchise QB in my eyes and is deserving of the #1 Overall Pick if Luck doesn’t come out. Top 5 10/25/11. Listed as the #1 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. Took 8 sacks in 2011 which was fewest in USC history. In the 2012 Stanford game he had 15 yd cross to wide open WR, good throw on out but not open for PBU, quick release to slant on blitz for +40 yd YAC, perfect throw for 20 yds to open TE, delay of game, missed open WR on post, WR didn’t turn for ball for INC, just overthrew WR on 9 route-tight cov but open, easy 7 yd pass on 4th and 3 to TE on out, a bit too far on slant for INC, took huge blind side hit for sack and FF, ball batted at LOS, threw INT but not his fault as Woods stopped on his route?, terrible INT one pass later this time 100% being his fault as was cover 2 and he tried to split down sideline the CB and S yet CB jumped up and easily picked it, 10 yd curl to open WR, 12 yd slant off back foot, great throw on 4th and 2 as short out was covered so he had to throw a jump ball to FB in end zone off back foot and threw it perfectly-was PBU but was still perfectly thrown and FB had it but was ripped out by defender, bad throw on 3rd and 15-lucky it wasn’t picked as skipped to WR and CB was right there too, perfect 30 yd seam route but INC on hit by S, tripped but good awareness to flip to RB on run play, threw behind WR on open cross-forced punt, perfect 20 yd post but dropped by WR when hit-same story, different down, great throw to covered WR for +15 yds on 4th and 4, nice 18 yd loft to TE thrown before he broke. He took most snaps from under center. He was hit all day long vs. Stanford as their DL killed his OL. His lack of height worries me as he is a small guy out there. He has great accuracy and is very polished but his arm is mediocre, he isn’t extremely mobile, and he’s slightly under 6’2. I still love the kid but the more I watch him the more I think the draft process will pick him apart and he won’t be a Top 5 pick in the end 9/29/12. 0-4 in career vs. Stanford. Listed as the #3 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 Arizona game he had poor overthrow of short out, threw 10 yd out high but jump caught, perfect throw in stride to WR on 15 yd slant, awkwardly ran for 10 yds, dump off for 10 yds on 3rd down, terrible read throwing post for easy INT but S dropped it, next play he threw INT that wasn’t his fault-deflected off WR’s hands, had pressure in his face on naked bootleg and threw dart 14 yds-a bit high but good zip, good 9 route to open WR a tad underthrown-50 yds in air (6:22 1st), on target on numerous short throws, a bit too far on corner route with TE on 4th and 2 for TO-missed by 2 ft, good throw on post between CB/S forcing PI, good zip and placement on 12 yd slant-in stride, perfect throw to open wheel route but dropped-30 yds, perfect 9 route to open WR-45 yds in air in stride (11:15 2nd), 12 yd catch and run to TE on short out-naked bootleg, terrible throw on cross as he threw it ahead of WR and 3 yds too high-terrible!, 49 yd catch and run slant to Lee-a tad high on throw forcing jump, good post throw going high so only his WR could get it-37 yds in air, risky throw over defender’s head for 13 yds along sideline, perfect 31 yd TD in between CB/S in stride-NFL throw on time, accurate, and very very confident (0:55 2nd), behind on +20 yd post-0 YAC b/c of it, perfect slant in stride to Lee for 34 yd catch and run, HUGE MISTAKE slightly overthrowing 9 route that was wide open as CB fell down-would have been 88 yd TD!, 13 yd cross in stride, looked awkward scrambling out of pocket for 1 yd loss-not fast or sure of himself, slightly underthrew post corner yet did show underrated arm strength as the ball was 40 yds in the air as he’s on the run-gave WR a diving chance for it too (1:40 3rd), 15 yd out-a bit high forcing TE to jump, unsure where he was throwing this ball as 5 yds short of WR and almost INT by LB, threw fade on 4th and short yet bailed out by offsides on D-missed by 5 yds and bad decision to throw that low risk throw.expected to see a poor game by Barkley as they lost and he had 2 INTs yet one of his INTs wasn’t his fault as it was a deflected pass by his WR (on target) and the real reason they lost is b/c his RBs had two fumbles and his FB had 3 drops. Overall I really liked him as he doesn’t have great arm strength but has good enough and puts some zip on the ball at times. Also he has good accuracy, is experienced, is in complete control of that offense, and really accentuated the matchup of Marquise Lee vs. the secondary. When he has a good OL and playmakers around him he can be an elite distributor yet he lacks elite height, athleticism, or arm strength which makes him likely not a candidate as a Top 5 caliber player. Top 10 11/23/12. In the 2012 Oregon game he had a beautiful 44 yd TD vs. tight cov on 9 route to WR (10:35 1st)-he dropped it when it fell to the ground, panicked vs. rush and overthrew easy dump off, has most career completions of any Pac-12 player ever, elite 15 yd out throwing over jumping LB and in tight window vs. good cov-NFL throw (4:43 1st), perfect throw in stride for +30 yds on 9 route, threw INT in red zone-looked like PI on WR and not really his fault, great long throw to open WR for 75 yd TD-55 yds in air (14:42 2nd), elite play avoiding 2 rushers then throwing gorgeous touch pass on scramble drill as he was hit for 12 yd TD (6:05 2nd), terrible decision throwing as he was hit into triple cov for INT, risky throw again this time with it paying off as he split CB/S (half yard at most separation) to hit WR on post for 74 yd TD-very confident and can thread the needle (2:44 2nd), avoided 3 rushers but threw dump off into dirt in front of FB, perfectly thrown fade but PBU by CB, threw INT as WR fell down and went right past him to safety-overturned as PI, overthrew post for near diving INT one play later, good throw in traffic to TE with defender in face for 4 yd TD. He played a great game putting up +50 pts against the Ducks and this loss is 95% on the defense. In the 2011 UCLA game he threw behind WR on 1st play of game for INT on short out, threw too low on out for INC, miscom with WR-big time struggles early in game as went down 24-0, overthrew TE on 4th and 3-TO, 33 yd TD on wide open seam route, batted ball at LOS, underthrew curl while on a rollout to left (hard throw) for INC, ball hung to open WR in middle of field causing hit-threw a tad high too, broke two tackles on rushers to get outside for pass attempt-isn’t fast but does have some elusiveness to him, threw terrible INT on slant-right to LB, elite play again avoiding rusher then scrambling and throwing a touch pass over the D to Lee for 40 yds-took a sack and punt and turned it into a 40 yd gain (8:15 4th), very tough throw for 2 pt conversion vs. tight cov, took a huge blindside hit which separated his shoulder ending his season. He cost them this game as he started terribly slow, threw 2 very poor interceptions, and was just a little off on most throws today. The good news is he battled, showed great leadership, and impressed me with his ability to buy more time on plays by eluding rushers in the pocket. I still really like the kid but this wasn’t his best game and ends a down year for him 12/8/12.

Overall: Barkley entered the season as the expected #1 Overall Pick in this year’s draft yet has seen his stock free fall lately due to a poor 2012 season, mediocre measurables, and a late season injury that cost him the chance to perform at the Senior Bowl or Combine. While I will agree that 2012 was a down year for him I feel that he has taken a bit too much blame for USC’s struggles as the biggest issues with them last season were a terrible defense and Robert Woods injury plagued final season. Barkley knew he had to put up points for his team and often pressed the issue which caused his interception total to more than double (7 to 15) yet I still see a lot of talent in Barkley and disagree with those that say he isn’t a 1st round caliber talent. Since he entered USC as a true freshman in 2009 he’s looked like an NFL quarterback to me and that experience of his (49 career starts) is a huge reason why I think he’ll be successful. There is no QB in this draft more prepared to be the face of a franchise as he’s had the spotlight on him since he entered USC as the #1 recruit out of HS, has already dealt with NFL level media attention due to being in LA, and has handled adversity (USC scandals, sanctions, big losses, senior year injury) well making me think he will transition quicker than most onto the NFL stage. Matt has elite intangibles as he helped recruit players to USC after sanctions hurt their scholarship totals, stayed for his senior year despite having a Top 10 grade for last year’s draft, and has spent his summers on mission trips showing a philanthropic side to him that is rare for someone his age. He will be the perfect ambassador for a franchise and will work his tail off to improve as everyone raves about his film study, leadership skills, and work ethic. His negatives are easy to see as he has below average arm strength, at 6’2 ½ is tall enough but still looks small on film, and appears to be a 4.9-5.0 type 40 guy making it unlikely he’ll be a factor as a runner. Yet his positives are easy to see as well with Matt possessing above average accuracy, elite experience, elite character, a quick release, underrated talent in avoiding the rush despite poor overall athleticism, and a penchant for making the clutch play. Barkley will not be a player that wows you with his physical talent but if given a capable OL and decent weapons in the passing game he will produce for an NFL team and be an upper echelon QB. Despite a down 2012 he still had a 2.97 to 1 TD/INT ratio the past 3 years, only took 38 sacks the past 3 years (Glennon took 67 the past 2 seasons alone), and had 3 straight seasons of +60% completion percentage. His numbers pass the test as does the film I watched the past few seasons as he made plays for his team and was a huge reason why the USC program didn’t suffer more under strenuous sanctions the past few seasons. While Geno Smith has superior speed and arm strength Barkley is a much better prospect due to his ability to accurately throw the ball on intermediate routes and to thread the needle in tight coverage. Barkley lacks the physical talent to be deserving of a Top 5 grade but he’s being underrated by scouts who can’t look past his down senior season. As an Andy Dalton type player I think he will surprise people with how effective he is as a rookie and will make a team look very smart for taking him. Top 10 as my #1 QB 3/17/13.

2. Tyler Bray Tennessee #8 6’6 1/8 232 Jr.

Comparison: Ryan Mallett due to height, arm strength, and attitude similarities

Stats: SEC

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

3612

59.4

34

12

8

8.0

146.3

2011

1983

59.5

17

6

11

8.0

144.8

2010

1849

55.8

18

10

16

8.25

142.7

Combine: Ran a 5.00 but was to be expected due to his height and lack of mobility on tape. Great throw on 9 route drill. Good on on sideline drill-high on one. Good on post corner route, too far on 3rd one.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6061

232

 

9.25

5.00

 

804

4.51

7.2

 

Notes: Ranked #135 in ESPN 2010 HS Class. Extremely tall, making his 210 lbs look even more measly on him. For such a tall kid he is surprisingly mobile and is quick at setting up for a throw. Beat out Matt Simms (Phil’s son) and played very well down the stretch in ’10 as he got in a nice groove with Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore. Threw a few great deep balls in the ’10 Music Bowl vs. North Carolina as well as ran the offense very well against a quality D. Enters the 2011 season ranked #45 on my Big Board. Broke Peyton Manning’s record of 7 straight games with +2 TD passes in his 3rd game of his sophomore year! In the 2011 Florida game had a very nice side arm throw avoiding pressure in the pocket yet batted down by DB as there was no separation (8:01 1st), nice 15 yd throw on open curl with good velocity and accuracy (1:03 1st), fumbled snap (0:30 1st), unable to hook up with open late WR when flushed from the pocket by the constant pressure he was under in 2nd Q (3:10 2nd), great understanding and direction of his offense as he scrambled out of the pocket again under duress yet directed a WR towards the middle of the field to get him open for 20 yds (3:00 2nd), back shoulder throw to his TE making a tough NFL throw against a very good secondary look easy (2:06 2nd), nice quick throw on CB blitz during bad snap for 5 yd TD-easy throw made hard by snap (1:46 2nd), poor int not noticing CB Josh Evans dropping into area to undercut WR route (14:47 3rd), nice quick slant to Da’Rick Rogers in stride for YAC (10:30 3rd), incredible throw on the run with pressure behind him throwing a side armed bullet right into the tight window between two defenders yet dropped-a big time NFL throw (9:14 3rd), perfect 19 yd post to Rogers for TD in between two defenders again (4:31 3rd), poor throw that he was lucky his WR batted away from CB (3:00 3rd), INT on low snap that he threw to a WR that fell down-not his fault, negated anyways due to pass int on accidental trip (2:10 3rd), nearly picked off again this time by LB in the flat (1:20 3rd), another very nice pass in tight coverage that was dropped by a WR (6:15 4th), poor throw right to CB that was luckily dropped (4:55 4th), perfectly thrown 18 yd TD on seam route to TE in stride (4:55 4th), and ended game by overthrowing WR over the middle for an INT (1:45 4th). Playing with a young OL, against one of the better secondaries in the country, with his star WR out for basically the whole game he still kept his team in it with pinpoint passing. He is a gunslinger and probably takes too many chances but I continue to see future NFL star written all over him 9/30/11. In the 2011 Georgia game he had an easy 1 yd QB sneak, perfect throw in stride to TE for 20 yd gain on 3rd and 10 (5:30 1st), great throw to WR on 15yd slant in between safety and LB in zone (14:01 2nd), made tough catch for WR on easy throw around sidelines (1:01 2nd), threw ball behind WR on 13 yd out (0:11 2nd), surprisingly bad throw on open 9 route forcing WR to completely turn around as he threw it too close to the sidelines (4:33 3rd), delay of game, great throw flushed out of pocket rolling left and throwing across his body perfectly to WR who dropped it (3:17 3rd), very risky toss as he was falling down to avoid sack-was intentional grounding anyways (9:35 4th), shutdown for the most part down 20-6 with 6 minutes left in game but engineered a nice, efficient drive for a quick +50 yds, hurt throwing ball getting hit on thumb and being replaced by QB Matt Sims (4:55 4th). Only had 2 FBS scholarship offers out of HS. Listed as the #27 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. In the 2012 North Carolina St. game he had 8 yd curl to open WR, threw ball to no one-ball slipped?, perfectly in stride to open WR on 9 route for 41 yd TD-gorgeous throw (11:35 1st), another throw into the ground 5 ft ahead of WR, solid 12 yd curl to open WR, poor throw on 10 yd curl a few plays later-tight cov so maybe throw away, way too high on middle route by TE for near INT by deep safety-been off all night, perfect 72 yd 9 route to wide open WR for TD-in stride though and +40 yds in the air (1:16 1st), good throw for +15 yd post to open WR, overthrew WR when pressured, good 15 yd slant to open WR, in rhythm in 2nd Q with good accuracy and arm strength, QB sneak at 1 yd line and ball knocked out of hand as he tried to reach across goal line, great 15 yd dart on cross throwing off back foot with pressure in his face-NFL throw, very good 10 yd slant on 3rd and 10 throwing it low for WR, threw behind slant on goal line for pbu, too far on out on next play, slightly underthrew post for pbu-not bad of a throw though. His inconsistencies still scare me but when he’s on he’s a Top 10 pick caliber prospect as he has elite height, borderline elite arm strength, and really attacks defenses. A gamble though and the more I watch him the more I’m leaning toward 2nd round not 1st 9/1/12. In the 2012 Georgia game he had deep out completed barely due to his elite arm strength as S Bacarri Rambo was baiting him, had INT on batted ball by LB, threw perfect 9 route to Patterson for would be 54 yd TD but dropped, nice cut block on DE on end around, missed Hunter on crossing route 2x-just overthrew both times, missed open WR in corner of end zone-FG, had INT as was blitzed and threw a poor back shoulder play, great job buying time with backing up for route to develop then throwing off back foot-elite arm strength, hit in pocket for FF and TO, got ball back with 15 sec and threw INT on tipped ball-not his fault. Bray once again has his inconsistent spells but his elite arm strength as well as his quick release (0 sacks despite constant pressure) and understanding of offensive philosophy continues to intrigue me. He’s a project but a possible Pro Bowl QB if it works out 9/29/12. Was 185 lbs when he came to campus and is 220s in 2012. In the 2012 Florida game he had bad throw on covered 9 route for should be INT but dropped, terrible throw not seeing LB on shallow cross for INT, underthrew 9 route a bit but still solid throw for +40 yds, great throw to TE vs tight cov for 13 yds-NFL throw, good 6 yd touch pass on play action, 15 yd back shoulder throw vs. tight cov, hit as he threw for INT-not his fault as it fluttered due to hit. In the 2012 Alabama game he had perfect 14 yd back shoulder throw to cov WR, overthrew crossing route and short out both of which were tightly covered, threw right to LB on miscom, perfect throw on cross in stride to WR for 44 yds, picked off by FS Robert Lester in the end zone on 25 yd seam route, behind to WR on in route for INC on 4th down-covered and had to thread the ball. All game he was a little off target and part of it was Alabama pressuring him and having great cov but part was that he didn’t have a great game. Listed as the #14 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 South Carolina game he was warned that if he didn’t play well he’d be pulled, had an open hitch but threw low ball-INC and catchable but his fault too, good 10 yd TD on pump fake getting wide open WR at corner pylon, very good 10 yd curl around 3 defenders, had high throw on 10 yd curl causing WR’s legs to get cut out from under him, overthrew slightly open 9 route by 5 yds, elite play looking off safety to the left then throwing a perfect 37 yd TD to WR vs. tight cov (5:22 2nd), showed his elite arm strength flinging it 50 yds in the air to WR as defender fell down for 61 yd catch and run TD, had easy 51 yd TD as defender fell down (after Bray threw it) but he overthrew Hunter by 2 yds, bad overthrow of wide open WR-pressure in his face, underthrew open TE on sideline route-completed by diving catch, great 22 yd TD on the run throwing it to corner pylon with tight cov. His coach is 0-14 in past 3 years against ranked opponents. Many of those games Bray didn’t play in but that still is a reflection on the two thirds of them he did. In this game he once again at great moments and some terrible throws as well.

Overall: Every year there is usually 1 or 2 QBs that I completely disagree with the scouting community about. This year Tyler Bray is example #1 as he’s currently graded by most scouts as a 3rd-4th rounder yet I have him as not just a late 1st rounder but as my #2 QB and ahead of Geno Smith. The reason for this is that Bray has the strongest arm in the draft and when he enters the NFL he’ll have one of the 10 strongest arms in there as well. His height (6’6 1/8) is elite, his arm strength is elite, and his ability to avoid the sack is elite (19 sacks the past 2 seasons is better than every other highly rated QB). The last part isn’t discussed enough as everyone focuses on INT totals for QBs yet sack totals are important as well since a sack puts an offense in a difficult position and often ends drives. Bray had a very small number of sacks AND did it in an offense that accentuated the deep ball which is even more impressive. Bray used a technique where he would steadily back up in the face of pressure which bought him additional time and was successful due to his elite arm strength which still allowed him to complete passes despite pressure in his face, a longer throw (having backed up), and often odd arm angles (a magician with the side armed throws). I love this about him and see rare talent in his ability to do this. He has two issues that teams will have to work through though as he’s inconsistent with his accuracy due to poor footwork and inconsistent arm angles and he has had off the field issues which point to a lack of maturity. While Matt Barkley has everything you could want in a future face of the franchise Bray has very little of what you want. He’s a combination of Jay Cutler and Ryan Mallett in personality and attitude with a lack of maturity and overall arrogance or smugness that could rub teammates the wrong way. He was charged with reckless use of a personal watercraft in a jet ski incident that was resolved out of court and follows an incident previously where he threw golf balls and beer bottles at parked cars in an apartment complex. Neither would be too important if he played any other position but as a QB you’re the leader of a team and a billion dollar franchise so those incidents clearly become more magnified. While I’ll be the first to admit that Bray needs to mature I still am leaving him as my #2 QB as his upside is far superior to any QB in this draft (the talent of Bray compared to former #1 Overall pick and current Pro Bowler Matt Stafford is very comparable) and I think he had better film than Geno Smith in the 2nd half of 2012. His ability to throw the deep ball, avoid pressure in the pocket, and thread the needle against tight coverage is as good as any QB in this draft. Bray is a high upside, high risk prospect that someone will probably take in the 2nd-4th round but who gets a late 1st round grade on my board as the #2 QB 3/17/13.

3. Geno Smith West Virginia #12 6’2 3/8 218 Sr.

Comparison: More athletic Matt Leinart

Stats: Big 12

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

4205

71.2

42

6

19

8.1

163.9

2011

4385

65.8

31

7

26

8.3

152.6

2010

2763

64.8

24

7

28

7.4

144.7

2009

309

65.3

1

1

5

6.3

120.9

Combine: Great 40 which is strange as I didn’t see this speed on film (4.56 40). Fastest 40 among the QBs.Underthrew on outside shoulder drill. Average in quick out drill. Two very good throws on 9 route drill.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6023

218

 

9.25

4.56

33.5

1004

 

 

 

Notes: Tall, skinny guy who looks more like a WR than a QB. Has a solid throwing motion and a very quick release with the ball jumping out of his hand. Two of his top 3 targets play ball in HS with him giving him great familiarity with them. In the 2011 LSU game had delay of game, fastball 10 yds on hitch that was a little high but relatively on target (9:01 1st), rolled right and threw ball well out of bounds attempting 9 route, threw another fastball but horribly thrown as he was trying a back shoulder toss that needed less RPMs on it and to be more accurate, very nice 12 yd curl with perfect accuracy and timing-NFL throw, great throw to WR in traffic but bounced off his hands for int that wasn’t Smith’s fault at all (4:35 1st), bobbled shotgun snap and forced to fall on it, quick release off snap on quick slant with CB blitzing untouched-showed great composure (13:40 2nd), poor throw out of bounds over their head with blitzer in his face, threw 9 route well out of bounds, nice job staying patient in the pocket then shooting a dart 8 yds with just a flick of his wrist showing elite strength, good vision going to second read and pump faking first for 12 yd TD (8:45 3rd),  delay of game, amazing +30 yd throw on 71 yd catch and run perfectly place over the shoulder of WR who had a step on the safety-NFL throw (2:21 3rd), 7 yd run on 3rd and 10 setting up manageable 4th down as down by 13 with 1 Q left, threw poor ball into the dirt on short hitch for turnover on 4th down, terrible fumble on snap going right to LSU DE (8:02 4th). Listed as the #12 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. Listed as the #5 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 Kansas St. game he made dumb play walking OOB for 4 yd loss-lack of speed evident as couldn’t get corner vs. LB Arthur Brown (looks to have 4.8 or 4.9 type speed), strong 8 yd hitch-dropped but did show good zip, throws a ton of bubble screens and dump offs so yardage is inflated, rarely holds on to the ball very long and doesn’t take cov sacks, post behind WR-likely intentional due to cov going for back shoulder, good zip on sideline route on wide side but bad read as CB deflected it to LB for INT, average zip and again a bad read on sideline route this time with S making jumping INT-2nd time he threw it long side of field for INT, late on 15 yd out for near INT, WRs rarely got open and when he forced throws his average arm strength showed up in a big way, good low and away slant vs. tight cov, overthrew covered post. In the 2012 Iowa St. game he slightly overthrew open WR on post-+35 yds in air, showed average speed for 17 yds-wide open, overthrew shallow cross, threw 0 route 5 yds over head of WR?, well thrown sideline route dropping it in between CB/S, threw duck completed for 20 yds-lucky as hit hard by wind, good 6 yd out throwing it low and away in red zone for TD-decreased chance of pick 6, 9 yd hitch in traffic, tunnel vision on almost every throw, perfect accuracy but showed his average arm strength as 15 yd cross hung in air causing PBU by CB who initially was beat, scrambled right and threw back left to TE after he sucked LBs up-good improv but TE hit and dropped it, long out route which was his 3rd read-it hung in air though, delay of game. The wind in this stadium clearly affected him and showed off his average arm strength. I still like him as he’s accurate, tall, smart, and experienced yet he just lacks the athleticism or arm strength to be a Top 5 type player. Top 15 11/24/12. In the 2012 Oklahoma St. game he had 2 yd gain-hard hit on QB keeper as just not fast, battled +30 yd winds this day, overthrew covered 9 route-maybe overthrew attempt at jump ball, overthrew wide open post for would be 75 yd TD, 8 yd out-a tad high, poor pass to RB negating YAC-3 and out, got into rhythm late in 1st and hit Bailey numerous times vs. CB Brodrick Brown, 7 yds scramble-good cut for most of it, sacked on scramble-tough to bring down but couldn’t get away due to lack of speed, backup QB came in (his helmet came off so had to miss 1 play) and threw 37 yd TD, at times falls in love with dump off and doesn’t threaten downfield, zip on slant, overthrew open 10 yd out across field for INC, tough throw to wide side for 10 yd comeback vs. tight cov-NFL throw, good 30 yd throw on run to back of end zone but PBU-covered but threw it perfect, took a few sacks this game-uncharacteristic, perfect post (+35 yds in air) in stride for +70 yd catch and run, perfect 8 yd TD pass vs. zone in traffic, ran into RB tackling him on handoff, miscom with Bailey trying back shoulder and it being INC-poor body language and didn’t go to WR but went to coaching staff, overthrew wide open 9 route for TD-+35 yds in air, underthrew open post route for PBU-if he had led him a little more it’s likely a completion, missed wide open 10 yd curl-3 yds over his head, 8 yd scramble, had all time and finally threw it on the run in the dirt 5 yds in front of WR coming back-open, avoided rusher and threw strike on run for 15 yd catch and run, missed open out. He went up against a mediocre D and didn’t play that well as he missed some open WRs deep and too often checked the ball down. I still like him but the more I watch of him the more I notice his mediocre arm strength, lack of speed, and unwillingness to thread the needle. I also notice the lack of leadership from him when things go wrong as he’s the first to pout/complain and I never noticed him try and rally the troops during the 5 game losing streak. Late 1st round 11/24/12. In the 2012 Oklahoma game he struggled early not looking interested in staying strong in pocket against the rush, had a great drive late in 2nd Q with two great deep passes with 2nd being post for TD (33 yds), poor throw on out with ball hanging for PBU and INT, showed better speed and elusiveness than I thought he had with a +30 yd weaving run (11:45 4th), perfect fade for a 10 yd TD and lateral a good throw for 9 route  for +35 yd TD. I noticed a lack of toughness and poor body language in this game yet he also had a half dozen elite throws which makes me think he’s not a Top 10 prospect but definitely still a 1st round talent. 2nd team Big 12 in 2012. In the 2012 Syracuse game he was in the snow, took too long on pass in end zone causing safety, very quick going through his progressions, threw out of bounds 2 different deep passes, he threw an out or curl to the wide side 3x and each time the lack of velocity worried me, well thrown 30 yd TD on 9 route, a terrible play by him as he had 7.5 sec in pocket and couldn’t find anyone yet while backing up to avoid the pressure (finally) he was tripped by DE in the end zone for a safety (1:19 3rd). His team appeared to be snake bitten in this game as at least 4x they had huge plays come back on penalties and a pick 6 was dropped by a defender. Yet once again Smith seemed uncomfortable threatening the defense deep and the opposing team slowly strangled their run game and short passing game. His 42/6 TD/INT ratio is impressive but the reality is he was overly cautious in the 2nd half of the season and it really hurt his team. His stock has been on a steady decline with me for months and it continues with his bowl game as he appeared to be more the cause than the solution to their problems. Early 2nd round as he loses his 1st round status after another poor performance 1/1/13. 33 career fumbles showing horrible ball security. Is very much a fake persona on camera and I didn’t like him as a person in Gruden’s QB Camp. Too often he’s the most upset/down person on the team when something goes wrong and I really dislike his lack of leadership skills. He’s the first person to blame others when things go wrong and will likely point fingers and throw teammates under the bus as a pro.

Overall: When looking at Geno Smith throw against air at the Combine or when looking at his numbers the past few seasons it’s very easy to fall in love with Smith. At 6’2 3/8 218, with 4.56 speed, and with elite TD/INT numbers he has the look of a new age QB who can beat you with his arm or his legs. His best attribute is clearly is elite ability to avoid the interception as with 95 TDs to only 20 INTs the past 3 seasons he has the best TD/INT ratio I’ve ever scouted (Kellen Moore is the only comp). In Smith’s final season he had a 7 to 1 TD/INT ratio which far exceeded Luck’s 3.7 to 1 and was even superior to RGIII’s 6.1 to 1 ratio. I’m a big advocate of the TD/INT ratio as it shows a QB’s ability to read coverage and his discipline in taking what a defense gives him. Geno is elite in this regard yet is possibly too disciplined as he was far too comfortable in a lot of games with dumping passes down and in the NFL he will have to thread the needle more than he did in college. While his low INT total is impressive his TD total clearly was inflated by having 2 of the 10 best WRs in college on his team. Quite often he would get +20 yd gains simply from throwing a 3 yd pass in the flat to Tavon Austin so both his yardage and TD totals are deserving of scrutiny. Also his 4.56 40 is downright confusing as I never saw him flash this level of speed and I question whether he will be a running threat in the NFL. His frame is rail thin (possibly will be injury prone), his quickness isn’t good, and he lacks toughness all making me think he’ll be a rare runner at the next level. Furthermore I question his body language and leadership skills as the team lost 5 straight games then won two games against very weak competition and ended with a very bad loss in their bowl game. At no time did I see the leadership from Geno that I would want from my franchise QB. He isn’t a raw raw guy but every dropped pass, every tipped ball, and every drive that ended with a punt caused Geno to yell or cry to his coach and show a lack of maturity that worries me. My final memory of Smith is from their bowl loss when it was snowing and the team was down three scores but it was still the 3rd quarter. Smith had a look on his face like he didn’t want to be there and in the final 1 ½ quarters one of the most explosive offenses in the nation didn’t score a point. Geno is very smart, is a film junky, and will not be a risk for a team off the field. Yet I don’t want him as my franchise QB as he isn’t tough, has mediocre arm strength, isn’t a vocal leader, is too cautious in attacking a D, and seems to blame others when things go bad. He reminds me a little of Matt Leinart in that both put up elite stats yet lack great athleticism or intangibles. Smith has a stronger arm and is faster but I think a team expecting Geno to carry a franchise will be sorely disappointed. He will only be successful if put on a talented team and allowed to be a distributor and while Barkley has a similar profile for success I think Geno lacks the intangibles and accuracy of Barkley which is why their grades differ so dramatically. Early 2nd round as my #3 QB and a prospect who I think is VASTLY overrated, who I want no part of 3/18/13.

4. Mike Glennon North Carolina St. #8 6’7 1/8 225 Sr.

Comparison: More raw Joe Flacco

Senior Bowl: 11×11-overthrew open seam route for INT, impressive needle thread on curl. Day 2: perfect 9 route for TD. 11×11-elite seam route vs. tight cov, underthrew 9 route with wobbler into double cov for INC and near INT, perfect 9 route in stride +40 yds in the air. The consensus is that he struggled early in the week yet improved throughout and eventually had an okay week of practice.

Stats: ACC

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

4031

58.5

31

17

36

7.15

130.7

2011

3054

62.5

31

12

31

6.7

136.4

2010

78

69.2

0

0

0

6.0

119.6

2009

248

61.5

1

2

2

6.4

113.2

Combine: Ran a 5.00 same as Bray which also makes sense as they are both the tall, pocket QBs. Very good on sideline drill.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6071

225

 

9.63

5.00

26.5

806

4.52

7.49

 

Notes: A tall, skinny QB who has an NFL look to him. Has a quick release and a strong arm zipping the ball around the field. In the 2011 Louisville game he had a fastball 10 yd curl but was a bit low, good accuracy on 10 yd out to TE with LB close, good throw on run to TE on sideline but barely out of bounds, thread needle getting 10 yd curl but nearly pick six, good 6 yd TD to open WR on 2nd read-his analysis of defenses is very quick, good arm strength throwing 40 yd pass on a rope but overthrew 9 route for INC, took 5 sec sack, very bad throw on 9 route underthrowing it into double cov for easy INT (9:50 2nd), accurate throw on 8 yd out vs. tight coverage to TE, good velocity and accuracy on wide open 35 yd 9 route for TD (4:05 2nd), good 20 yd post in stride to WR allowing him to cut and avoid safety then streak to end zone for 68 yd TD-most was WR though (1:43 2nd), threw short dump off passes quickly numerous times under pressure-coolness under pressure that I liked, had surprising speed on 8 yd scramble-not a burner but more mobile than I expected, great throw behind WR as safety was on other side about to hit him but did anyways and WR dropped 12 yd TD pass, good throw vs. tight coverage for pbu but still perfectly thrown,      I was very impressed with the height, arm strength, mobility, and accuracy he had as he reminded me of a poor man’s Tyler Bray or Brock Osweiler. His release is very quick for a guy his height and I think that all he really needs is more experience and he could zoom up draft boards. Most likely he isn’t draftable on anyone else’s draft board but I have a 4th round grade on him 12/27/11. Had a great offseason going to numerous camps and drawing rave reviews. In the 2012 Tennessee game he had a great dart between two defenders for +15 on 3rd and 9-came back illegal motion, elite NFL throw with pocket collapsing and about to be hit he slid to the left and threw 38 yds in the air to a wide open TE for a huge gain-just a flick of the wrist showing his very good arm strength (11:26 1st), barely missed 20 yd slant-off fingertips of WR, perfect seam route to TE with no separation for +15 yds, perfect seam pass again this time to a different TE, hit and fumbled near goal line with lineman falling on it for safety-QB’s fault as he needed to throw it away, missed dump off over middle due to heat-poor job vs. pressure, had receivers drop back to back balls-not getting much help, solid 11 yd throw vs. zone, great 38 yd throw vs. tight cov, fumbled ball on hit but recovered by OL-2nd tonight, ran for 8 yds on 3rd and 4-not pretty but got it done, 14 yd scramble, terrible throw on deep post with safety easily picking it off, very good 5 yd TD moving around in the pocket for extra time, threw another INT this time on a well thrown ball against great cov-bad decision but was 3rd down in 4th Q down by 11 pts so had to risk it, overthrew WR on 4th down to end game-receivers had trouble getting open and was pressured all night. Needs to gain more weight as he is still very thin. Needs to improve his toughness and calm under pressure as he got rattled tonight. He’s tall, has a good arm, is accurate, and understands how to attack a defense so I still like him a lot yet he struggled tonight and the things he struggled in (toughness) I’m unsure you can complete change 9/1/12. Graduated in 3 ½ years and working on masters. In the 2012 Miami game he had an elite back shoulder throw for +30 yds, dropped snap resulting in safety, very nice 9 route for 75 yds vs. tight cov-CB fell down after he dropped it in perfectly past him, fumbled on blindside sack-didn’t see it but wasn’t that big of a hit, another great back shoulder throw-this time for +20 yds as he throws his guys open, didn’t throw fade hard enough and stuck in air for easy pick but was just PBU by CB-very lucky, showed okay mobility breaking a pass rusher’s tackle in backfield to escape for throw away, elite play avoiding inside rush on 4th and 1 to scramble outside and throw 28 yd strike for TD-he made the play, good 9 route (+50 yds in air) to wide open WR. He had his mistakes but it was another game where I felt like he was carrying the offense singlehandedly 9/29/12. Listed as the #50 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. Listed as the #27 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 Florida St. game he led his team to a come from behind 1 pt victory converting 4th and long and 4th and goal on the game winning drive. He tends to struggle on the short and intermediate routes while excelling at the deep routes. In the 2012 Vanderbilt game he was dead on in his first drive despite tight cov on every single throw-ended with punt due to terrible shotgun snap well over his 6’6 head, underthrew open 9 route with pressure in his face for easy INT, overthrew RB screen causing him to fall down, has a downward trajectory on his throws that could be a reason why a lot of his short throws are tough to catch, perfect post for TD dropped by WR, dumb throw into double cov for INT, perfect slant for 12 yds to setup FG at end of half-against tight cov, threw INT on jump ball at corner of end zone on 3rd down-gave his guy a chance and he lost, outstanding back shoulder throw to covered TE-a few plays after throwing a beautiful high ball to tall TE against tight cov, fumbled ball on blindside sack-recovered. His team also ended drives with a snap over his head, RB fumble, TE fumble, and missed 44 yd FG so it wasn’t only his fault but he threw 2 very bad INTs and 1 other INT which continued a pattern. I love his deep ball, his height, his zip, and his overall tools but his decision making worries me. The best defense of him is that his targets are rarely open and he often has to “throw them open” with back shoulder and jump balls which are risky throws and will inevitably result in more INTs than other throws. At this point I’m dropping him from his 1st round status as his decision making worries me. Early 2nd round 1/2/13.

Overall: Glennon will be one of the more difficult evaluations in this draft for scouts. I myself have been all over the board with him from mid 1st round to 3rd round as he’s both inconsistent and a mixed bag of positives and negatives. When he’s on he’s a 6’7 quarterback with elite arm strength, a good throwing motion, and underrated movement skills for a player his size who can carve up an NFL defense and thread the needle with the best of them. When he’s not on he’s a 6’7 lumbering QB who takes a lot of sacks (+30 sacks each of the past two seasons-worst among the top QB’s in this draft), has poor accuracy on short and intermediate throws, makes poor decisions, and has a funky downward trajectory (likely due to his extreme height) that causes the ball to be difficult to catch. He’s both guys depending on the game you watch so while some will see the upside and raise his grade others will see the downside and want no part of him. I think he’s a highly talented project at this point who only has 2 seasons as a starter and has a lot of footwork and accuracy issues to work through. If I had a top level QB coach or offensive coordinator I would be comfortable taking him in the 2nd round and grooming him to be a starter in a year or two. I suspect someone will do that and I hope that does occur as he shouldn’t start for an NFL team early in his career. One of the major issues I have with him is his lack of confidence (being abnormally tall with pale skin and freckles will do that to a kid) and being thrown into the fire too soon could cause irreparably damage to his psyche. I’ve gone back and forth with Glennon but there is elite upside to him so if a team is willing to be patient I could see him working out. Early 2nd round as my #4 QB 3/17/13.

5. Ryan Nassib Syracuse #12 6’2 1/8 227 Sr.

Comparison: Matt Schaub

Senior Bowl: Has the best velocity of the 3 QBs (Dysert, Glennon) but not the biggest arm. 11×11-great velocity and accuracy on tight cov of out while on scramble-very NFL like, tight cov throw again this time between 2 DBs in zone. 11×11: Great throw in traffic on post.

Stats: Big East

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3749

62.4

26

10

16

7.96

143.3

2011

2685

62.4

22

9

29

6.47

129.9

2010

2334

56.4

19

8

31

6.52

124.2

2009

422

52.9

3

1

7

6.21

116.7

Combine: A very solid 40.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6021

227

 

10.13

4.83

28.5

809

4.53

7.34

 

Notes: Redshirted so 5th year Sr. In the 2012 Connecticut game he has a strong arm as seen on +20 yd out throwing it perfectly-was PBU but tried to throw him open, 6 yd gain on zone read-tough player who can take a hit well, fumbled on hit as he was throwing-no TO, poor play fake not even showing the ball on easy 2 yd TD pass to TE, good 20 yd touch pass over LBs head in stride for WR to get YAC (+45 yds), has a bit of an odd release with it catching in his hand a little like Phillip Rivers “push” of the ball-not nearly as pronounced, nice play avoiding pressure and rolling left and then finding the TE on a touch pass over the D for +10 yds, overthrew open WR on 15 yd out. Had some very nice throws as INCs due to UConn’s elite CB duo yet was efficient and took the plays available to him, never rushing anything. Has a strong arm but not a huge fan of his release. He’s a mid level QB talent with a lot of positives but without the great size, speed, arm strength, or productivity you look for in a 1st rounder. 4th rounder on first analysis 10/20/12. In the 2012 Louisville game he slightly underthrew 9 route (+45 yds in air) but still completed for +50 yds, doesn’t have the strongest arm and has an odd release but appears to be accurate and release isn’t slow just awkward, slightly overthrew open seam for TD-back shoulder but just too high by 2 ft, is a hard worker in the weight room and it’s obvious with his toned arms, slightly underthrew out for PBU and near INT in red zone, well thrown fade to open WR for 5 yd TD-has good touch, perfect +20 yd seam route between LB/S-NFL throw (7:50 2nd), 37 yd TD on slight overthrow on seam again but good adjustment by WR, elite +20 yd seam route vs. tight cov-even threw it low as S was nearby for big hit (12:30 3rd). He impressed me with his accuracy (hits his WRs in stride throughout the game) and his understanding of the offense (numerous audibles, very quick in reads) yet I dislike his release and think he has an average arm so he’s a 2nd/3rd round type. He’ll be competing with the Matt Scott’s in the 2013 Draft and it will be a toss up among scouts as Nassib is much more polished but Scott has a much higher upside 12/2/12. 2nd team Big East in 2012. In the 2012 West Virginia game he threw a beautiful back shoulder pass against very tight cov to cause PI-very good velocity too, perfect post but dropped by WR, underthrew 9 route (had to be +50 yds in air), battles to or a little past whistle on most plays-pancaked a player at end of a play on semi-cheap shot, didn’t see blitz off edge for huge blindside hit and sack, miscom with WR on hitch-INC (0 for past 7), threw INT when WR didn’t battle through contact on slant, INC on back shoulder throw to TE-his guys aren’t getting open at all, good throw on out while on the run against pressure-dropped by WR, delay of game, the entire terminology of the O changed 2 weeks before the season began, almost a pick 6 as made terrible decision to throw out, he was a wing T QB in HS. The stats won’t show it but he actually outperformed Geno Smith as he threatened the D and, despite his WRs almost never getting separation, he did enough to mount drives. He has good height, good zip, good accuracy, good intelligence, and enough mobility to create second chances. He won’t be a star but I could see him eventually developing into a 15-25 type QB in the Matt Schaub mold. Early 2nd round 1/1/13.

Overall: Nassib is a player that won’t wow you when you first watch him as he has mediocre size (6’2), arm strength, production, and athleticism (4.83) but he’s an experienced, smart QB who knows how to run an offense and make the right plays. He reminds me of a Matt Schaub type who can’t be the focal point of an offense but is good enough to make plays in the passing game if put in the right situation. Nassib in fact was very impressive in 2012 despite a mediocre supporting cast that had limited NFL talent. He had tight windows to deal with yet handled them well and an argument can be made that he’s the 2nd most polished Qb in this draft behind only Barkley. Two issues I have with Nassib though are his release (he tends to cup the ball and it often comes out awkwardly and reduces the velocity) and his mediocre production. While he’s very polished he never had a 4,000 yd or 30 TD seasons and Syracuse ran the ball quite regularly. Coach Doug Marrone knew he had a mediocre talent base and slowed the game down but it’s hard to get too excited for a player who didn’t even rip up the college ranks. Nassib looks like a polished, low upside QB who should settle in as a 20-25 ranked starter along the lines of a Matt Schaub type. In the right offense he could be very effective yet the lack of high upside puts him in the 2nd round and neck and neck with Matt Scott who is a much bigger risk but has far greater upside. 2nd round as my #5 QB 3/18/13.

6. Matt Scott Arizona #10 6’2 1/8 213 Sr.

Comparison: Less talented RGIII

Stats: Pac-12

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3620

60.3

27

14

14

7.26

133.5

2011

RS

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010

776

71

4

2

8

8.34

150.9

2009

441

56.2

1

3

2

6.04

103.2

2008

84

63.6

1

0

1

63.6

157.8

Combine: Good but worse than I expected in a 40 (4.66 40). Underthrew on outside shoulder drill. Good throws in quick out drill. Was far and away the best in the shuttle and 3 cone with a 3.99 shuttle that would have been 3rd best among the 60 DBs and 2nd best among WRs at the Combine. A truly elite time and shows the quickness that he has which makes me think he’s the next read option QB for some team.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6021

213

 

9

4.66

31

910

3.99

6.69

 

Notes: Redshirted as a junior in 2011. In the 2012 USC game he had very nice pass in tight zone cov to TE for 8 yd TD, plays in a multifaceted offense that has him moving around a lot, good speed on option for 4 yds, has a very quick release, has good zip on the ball, doesn’t have great mechanics though and throws a bit high too regularly, well thrown seam route but INC as no one open-his WRs get little separation so he has to throw them open often and is pretty successful, great zip on ball on rollout-RGIII like play with mobility and elite zip, missed high and/or behind WR’s a bit too often, good speed and vision cutting outside for 16 yds on 4th and 14!, INT on slant not his fault as WR stopped and CB deflected pass to S, two +10 yd scrambles-4.6 speed at minimum, ball caught in air and gave INT opportunity for S-missed it for PBU-his fault as well underthrown, poor throw on slant for almost INT-hit CB in the chest, very impressive touch pass on deep ball for +40 yd gain-dropped it right in on high arcer for TE to run under it (4:13 3rd), 10 yd TD run on zone read-hit at 3 yd line and bulled his way to end zone extending ball at the end, solid back shoulder throw on 9 yd TD-a bit too far inside so got a little lucky too, good throw with zip on post for +45 yds on 3rd and 29! He looks like a legit NFL prospect at QB as he has solid height, good athleticism (appears to have 4.6 level speed), a very quick release, solid accuracy, and good arm strength. He doesn’t have great arm strength or a ton of experience so I think he’s a poor man’s Ryan Tannehill for this year’s draft. I’d be comfortable taking him as early as the late 2nd round as he has everything you want in a QB but will need to be groomed for a year or two before he gets his chance 11/23/12. In the 2012 Arizona St. game he again impressed me with his elite zip and above average mobility, good 15 yd back shoulder throw-NFL throw, great juke of LB in space for 7 yds when play was totally busted, terrible decision throwing touch pass with defender in his face-3 yds short of WR and easy INT, had back to back INTs this time overthrowing 9 route vs. tight cov-no reason to throw, overthrew 13 yd curl for his 3rd INT of 1st half-overturned on PF, impressive touch pass after pump fake on hitch and go for 22 yd TD-perfectly in stride, underthrew open post-too much air on it (though do love that usually from him), got lucky on 20 yd splitting CB/S as it was inches from an INT by S but made it through for 40 yd TD, stripped of ball at end of run when held up by defenders, miscom/bad read as WR quit on play due to double cov and he threw it right to S who just dropped it, next play WR deflected pass (not his fault) for INT by S behind him. I still loved the zip on his passes and his mobility but he easily could have ended this game with 6 INTs (7 TO) and looked a bit raw. He will need a year or two on the bench before starting but I still love the package of skills he brings. In the 2012 Nevada game he again impressed me with his zip, smart play being hit short of 1st on 4th and 3 but extending ball across, beautiful back shoulder throw over defender’s head, gorgeous +30 yd seam vs. tight cov (5:53 2nd), tends to throw high to receivers-forced two very tough catches and another INC, very bad INT into coverage-hit CB right in chest, INT on 4th and 7 throwing jump ball on seam route-had no choice as down 2 scores and 4th down, overthrew 9 route by 5 yds-had a step, amazing throw in VERY tight window. Overall he had an average game due to the 2 INTs and a few high throws but I still love the package of skills and think he’s a 2nd rounder 12/15/12.

Overall: To love Matt Scott you have to believe that the read option is here to stay. I personally do and think Scott fits the profile of what you want in a read option QB more than anyone else in this draft. At 1/8 of an inch over 6’2 and at a measly 213 lbs he’s hardly your prototypical pocket passer so I wouldn’t be as high on him if I was drafting for a team unwilling to implement a read option offense. Yet for teams like Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, and Philadelphia (a wildcard team that makes perfect sense if he drops to the early 3rd round) he would be a great addition as he could be a developmental project who could run the same offense as the starter if they were ever injured. While 4.66 is very fast for a QB I think the measurement that really shows his elite athleticism is his 3.99 short shuttle. That time blew away every QB in this year’s draft and was elite for any position as it would have placed him 3rd among DBs and 2nd among WRs. The shuttle measures quickness and shows the elite movement skills Scott has which would make him devastating as a read option QB. Yet Scott isn’t just a runner as he has the quickest delivery in the draft and, while lacking elite arm strength, has elite velocity on his throws. It’s interesting how few analysts discuss the difference between arm strength (how far you can throw it) and velocity (how quick a ball gets to a receiver). Often they are similarly rated yet in Scott there is a large difference as he has mediocre arm strength yet elite velocity. Every time he throws a sideline route I’m impressed as he has Aaron Rodgers/RGIII level velocity. He also is adept at threading the needle and has a lot of confidence in his arm. What he will need to work on is his accuracy, it becomes sporadic at times, and his decision making. Due to the lack of experience he has I think his best bet would be to be a backup for a year or two but if put in the right system I think he could be an adequate starter from Day 1. The read option scheme draws enough defensive attention that it often simplifies the passing game so I think if he had to he could start as a rookie. Overall Scott is one of the most underrated players in this draft and reminds me of a shorter Colin Kaepernick due to his elite athleticism and the velocity of his throws. He’s a scheme specific player but one who could be dominant in the right system. 2nd round as my #6 QB 3/17/13.

7. Tyler Wilson Arkansas 6’2 215 Sr.

Senior Bowl: Day 1: Airballed 20 yd out in skeleton drills?, 11×11-good naked bootleg throw to TE in stride, threw a duck-accurate but still on curl, #2 QB on day 1. He was inconsistent in practice with a number of balls sailing on him. Looks more 3rd than 2nd round 2/13/13.

Stats: SEC

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3387

62.1

21

13

14

8.45

143.8

2011

3638

63.2

24

6

26

8.3

148.4

2010

453

66.7

4

3

3

8.9

155.4

2009

218

61.1

2

2

0

6.1

119.2

2008

69

50

1

2

3

3.1

73.2

Combine: Overthrew on 9 route drill. Incredibly small hands with them being by far the smallest of all 16 QBs.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6021

215

 

8.75

4.94

28.5

904

4.39

7.22

 

Notes: People questioned his toughness against Alabama as he ducked on throws or ran early from the pocket. In the 2011 Texas A&M game had a terrible first two series getting down 14-0 quick but responded on 3rd drive with very accurate 20 yd out on 3rd and 15 (6:45 1st), didn’t see CB blitz from his side getting leveled-that’s on QB (4:30 1st), great side arm throw avoiding pressure and stepping up for pinpoint throw for 10 yds (3:15 1st), good 68 yd TD catch and run seeing WR Jarius Wright streaking down middle of field for easy throw (2:30 1st), delay of game (10:17 2nd), overthrew open WR in back of end zone forcing FG (3:30 2nd), coach found a hole in Aggies defense and they exploited it with +200 yds passing to Wright with 80% coming off the same play! Important to remember this when looking at his gaudy stats. Miscommunication on back shoulder throw for inc (9:50 3rd), overthrew 10 yd out that was open but a tight window (8:55 3rd), 2pt conversion successful on QB keeper on read option (11:00 4th), terribly underthrew 9 route that was open for a game winning TD for inc (4:14 4th). In the 2011 Tennessee game he made some great throws and put up huge numbers in a blowout win but had a few really bad throws including one throw (7:40 2nd) where he threw it right into a CB’s chest but was dropped and another that easily could have been picked as well. He has a little too much gunslinger in him right now for me but the talent is definitely there 11/12/11. In the 2011 LSU game he started out strong leading his team to a TD in the first quarter and making it an emphasis to attack the #2 and #3 CBs of LSU and avoid Claiborne and Mathieu who played S in this game. Listed as the #48 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. In the 2012 Texas A&M game he had some good throws in 1st half but near end of half he threw a terrible pick, threw another terrible pick early in 3rd Q as ball fluttered-both picks turned close game into landslide blowout, had very poor body language during game and definitely wasn’t the leader they needed him to be. Listed as the #61 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 LSU game he marched team down for TD on first drive, included +15 yd scramble for 1st down-would have been but RB fumbled at 2 yd line, horrible decision to throw 9 route vs. double cov-underthrown for INT and big return, got scared with pressure in his face skipping ball to open WR, elite 15 yd slant vs. tight cov-perfectly thrown, perfect 29 yd TD on 9 route vs. tight cov, +30 yd wheel route to setup FG-in stride, fumbled handoff for 3 yd loss. In the 2012 Mississippi St. game he had a perfect 30 yd seam route over LB’s head for TD (4:26 1st), perfect 10 yd out in stride-tunnel vision though, good dump off to RB for TD, better speed than I thought he had for 8 yd run-outran DE, good 21 yd throw stepping up in pocket then throwing on the run right before going over LOS, threw INT as CB jumped out route along sideline, elite throw for 20 yds on back shoulder throw where only his guy could get it, threw INT as Cobi was jammed and stopped on route-thrown before he stopped.

Overall: Wilson is a player that has been on scouts’ radar for the past two years yet when you break him down it’s a little confusing why he was EVER considered a 1st round caliber talent by so many. At 6’2 1/8 and 215 he’s both short and skinny, with 4.94 speed he’s slow, he has nothing more than above average arm strength, and he’s never had a 4,000 yd or 30 TD season despite playing with 4 NFL caliber WRs in Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, Greg Childs, and Cobi Hamilton. None of that is impressive yet there has always been this idea of Wilson as a late 1st round candidate for some reason. I myself was surprised when I saw how mediocre his numbers were in 2011 (his good season) as I was sure he had a much better season than 24 TDs. He has enough “arm talent” to peg him with an outside chance of being an NFL starter someday but I have serious doubts he ever becomes one. He isn’t a great leader, has had his toughness questioned in the past (and rightfully so), noticeably quit in a few of Arkansas’ games last year, is a below average athlete, and makes a lot of mental mistakes. Yes he occasionally will wow you with a nice throw here and there but they are flashes and aren’t seen nearly enough to overcome his numerous issues. Early 4th round as my #7 QB 3/18/13.

8. EJ Manuel Florida St. #3 6’4 5/8 237 Sr.

Comparison: Terrelle Pryor

Senior Bowl: Day 1: Little shown of him but #3 QB on day 1. He was invisible this week and once again I rarely saw him rip a pass +20 yds. I love his frame and still am intrigued with him as a multi year project guy but that’s it.

Stats: ACC

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3392

68

23

10

26

8.77

156

2011

2666

65.3

18

8

33

8.57

151.2

2010

861

69.9

4

4

4

9.26

153.3

2009

817

65.1

2

6

5

7.71

124.7

Combine: Outstanding 40 (4.62) which makes his measurables eerily similar to Cam Newton. Newton was 6’5 248 with a 4.56 40, a ’35 vertical, and a 10’6 broad. Manuel was 6’4 5/8 237 with a 4.62 40, a ’34 vertical, and a 9’10 broad. Perfect throw on outside shoulder drill. Two good throws on 9 route drill.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6045

237

 

10.38

4.62

34

910

4.21

7.08

 

Notes: Was the MVP of the the 2010 Gator Bowl vs. South Carolina. In the 2011 FSU Spring Game had a very poor throw on a 5yd out during a rollout causing a punt (13:40 1st), didn’t see safety on tough 12 yd out almost getting picked (6:30 1st), threw into double coverage on very next play getting intercepted (6:00 1st), very nice 27 yd throw going to his 3rd read and throwing a perfect pass (3:25 2nd), threw a ball late on a short out allowing Reid a pick six (1:20 2nd), and overthrew an open post by 5 yards (7:00 3rd). Seems to have a good arm and nice mobility, though neither are elite, yet struggles with accuracy and reading coverages even though everyone mentions how intelligent he is. In the 2011 Florida game he made a dive over the pile on the goal line and fumbled ball-team barely kept it. In the 2011 Oklahoma game he had a 10 yd out with good timing, missed horribly on WR who had a few steps on 20 yd crossing route, great 28 yd run on QB keeper showing speed but also strength and elusiveness as he started inside then cut outside and broke a tackle to get to sidelines where he shot upfield (5:10 1st), great job avoiding rushers and throwing 22 yd TD pass but brought back for hold, 10 yd vs. zone, missed open WR for 20 yd gain-just off fingertips, 8 yd run on 3rd and 9 for punt, great 12 yd run jumping over a teammate on the ground-has a Cam Newton type feel in his runs as he is just as much elusiveness and power as he is speed, good check down looking downfield then going for 8 yd dump off, terrible INT near the end of the half overthrowing the WR by 5 yds with the INT returned 60 yds to setup their score going into half instead of his team’s (1:25 2nd), great play avoiding rusher to get 5 yd dump off, Tebow like 7 yd sweep with him as the runner-will be a great short yardage runner, 8 yd dump off, injured his non throwing shoulder, probably on previous run, and had to leave the game 2 plays later as he couldn’t continue. He had a lot of his INTs in 2011 on deep passes. In the 2012 Wake Forest game he almost threw pick 6 on 0 route, good 15 yd TD on zone read QB keeper, had fumble on very mediocre hit on sack by DE, great 30 yd TD pass to wide open WR avoiding two rushers to get out of pocket and buy time (only major contribution to 38-0 halftime lead though as most was running game. In the 2012 South Florida game he had a few good throws (47 yd 9 route) but overall I wasn’t impressed as he missed the strike zone a bit and was a key reason the game was close. In the 2012 Florida game he forced leaping grab on wide open cross, terrible INT on jump ball into traffic, terrible INT with LB reading eyes and jumping cross, threw high a number of times across middle, threw INT by sidelines but not his fault as WR stopped on route, hit hard when scrambling for FF-his 4th TO of game! In the 2012 Georgia Tech game he had 20 yd designed run-beat LB to sideline despite angle, reminds me of Terrell Pryor which isn’t necessarily a complement. He had good numbers but continued to lack the ability to make plays that weren’t there and will not succeed at the NFL level unless he has a dominant run game and is asked to be a bus driver. 2nd team ACC in 2012. In the 2012 Northern Illinois game he rarely had any pressure, a run game that got him yards, and open WRs yet he still struggled to move the ball. He underthrew 2 open WRs for INCs, good high throw in back of end zone for tough 5 yd TD-21st in nation in TD% in red zone, overthrew open WR in end zone then underthrew WR 2 plays later, rarely ever threw beyond 5 yds, back to back runs to cap TD drive. He still intrigues me due to his frame but he has a below average arm, inconsistent accuracy, and similar issues in other aspects of the game that Logan Thomas has. 4th round as a long term project 1/2/13.

Overall: While my grade on EJ Manuel has changed little in the past few months his overall grade appears to have changed dramatically in scouts’ eyes and I now can be considered to be undervaluing him. He has had a spectacular offseason with a great Senior Bowl game (won MVP) followed by a great Combine where he physically looked quite comparable to Cam Newton. Yet my grade has changed little on him since the mid point of the 2012 season as I still don’t see the overall arm talent (velocity, arm strength, accuracy, ability to thread the needle). I had similar questions with Terrelle Pryor when he came out of Ohio State and they make a good comparison as both are big, strong, athletic guys who have overrated arm strength and little experience attacking a complex defense. Manuel has superior accuracy to Pryor yet Pryor tested out better athletically (ran unofficial 40 times at his pro day between 4.31-4.41). I think Manuel is a long term developmental project with elite athleticism but lacks the arm talent and experience as a thrower to ever become the QB many now envision him as. While he’s moved up into the early 2nd round range on most boards he maintains my 4th round grade as the #8 QB in the draft 3/19/13.

9. Landry Jones OU #12 6’4 1/8 225 Sr.

Comparison: Poor man’s Kirk Cousins

Senior Bowl: Day 1: Perfect 9 route TD vs. tight cov, #1 QB on day 1. Asked Scott Linehan for playbook before Senior Bowl (gym rat). He did nothing in practice that wowed me. He was the best QB on Day 1 yet I knew he’d look good in the skeleton drills and I’ve seen him fold too much under pressure and too often be unable to thread the needle that I keep the same grade.

Stats: Big 12

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

4267

66.1

30

11

13

7.69

144.6

2011

4463

63.2

29

15

10

7.9

141.6

2010

4718

65.6

38

12

19

7.65

146.3

2009

3198

58.1

26

14

12

7.12

130.8

Combine: His 40 was hilarious as by the end he was so upright that he was almost high stepping it the 40. Good throw on 9 route drill, underthrew 2 WR. Mediocre on sideline drill. Good on post corner route drill.

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6041

225

 

9.13

5.03

31

907

4.3

7.12

 

Notes: In the ’10 Fiesta Bowl vs. UConn he had an NFL throw on a 15 yd out against perfect coverage showing accuracy, timing, and confidence (12:00 2nd), overthrew a 25 yd post that was wide open for a TD (11:47 2nd), well thrown 9 route to Kenney for 59 yd TD only having to slow down a little (11:00 3rd), perfect 9 route to Kenney for 36 yds (10:28 4th), and had a perfect 6 yd TD on sidelines against perfect coverage showing incredible accuracy on the run no less (7:52 4th). Enters the 2011 season ranked #27 on my Big Board. Had led his offense to a very poor red zone % TD/FG wise and has been replaced more and more by a running QB in recent games. In the 2011 Baylor game he had numerous early plays where guys were wide open yet somehow couldn’t lead team to more than 3 pts after 1 Q, nice play stepping up in pocket and scrambling left to find open WR and throw perfectly for 10 yd catch (12:10 2nd), lack of toughness on messed up handoff that left him with the ball and running room as he chose to slide for a loss? (4:40 2nd), great back shoulder 9 route/seam route throw to Stills who was perfectly covered for 30 yd gain-rare NFL caliber throw (11:52 3rd), ran for 12 yds actually juking a LB in space, took terrible sack on next play watching DT get cut get up and sack him without moving or throwing ball away?, threw very poor ball on curl for INT trying to drop it over defender to TE on post corner route (14:10 4th), overthrew WR by 5 yds, overthrew WR in end zone by +10 yds looking like he threw it away despite it being 4th down? (9:50 4th), good throw hitting WR on +20 yd out with pressure in his face and having to backpedal-NFL throw (6:26 4th). Has a face and head that reminds me of Tyson Chandler. In the 2011 Texas game he made an easy throw to open WR on curl that was taking +40 yds on first play of the game, very poor job handling rush that was non-existent for 3 secs then when it came he one hopped ball to WR in the flat, lots of 3-7 yd short passes, good 19 yd TD to wide open WR but threw ball perfectly (15:00 2nd), very nice back shoulder throw to Stills for 20 yd TD to start the blowout-called for pushing off (12:48 2nd), miscom with Stills for INC, poor accuracy and timing with Stills for INC on 15 yd out, great throw dropping 27 yd 9 route just over defenders shoulder before safety could come over-type of throw that makes me wonder if Jones can be a legit NFL QB (12:34 2nd), good 5 yd TD on 5 yd curl at front pylon well away from defender, underthrew wide open WR for would be TD causing INC, nice throw to covered TE showing great accuracy as he threw it low and away from defender (9:20 2nd), very slow on rollout-extremely noticeable how much he lumbers and will only get worse with age, great 25 yd post perfect to Reynolds in between defenders but hit hard and INC, one hopped ball to open WR on 15 yd curl?, poor throw on 4th and long (too long for FG) missing WR on post and 5 yds off target, good throw for 35 yds on seam route to Broyles, great 15 yd fade to Stills throwing ball perfectly (0:33 2nd), okay 13 yd out as was accurate but very open WR and a softball toss, great throw with two guys right by WR on 13 yd curl yet zinged it in there accurately for 1st-NFL type window (14:57 4th). In the 2011 Florida St. game he went untouched on first TD drive dinking and dunking down field with 12 yd curl to Broyles as longest throw, good 8 yd slant, first NFL throw of the game hitting Stills in stride for 14 yd out, missed 15 yd out to Stills on other side on miscom depth wise, hit as he threw (first time in game) and the duck went for a diving INT (0:48 1st), missed throw on dump off when pressure made him move in pocket, solid 40 yd 9 route throwing a bit late forcing WR to slow down and get hit hard by safety but still completing it, bobbled snap and fell on it, overthrew 9 route to Stills 50 yds in the air for an INT by safety (4:21 3rd), 15 yd slant to Stills with 8 YAC included, missed 20 yd seam when backed up in end zone forcing punt from 6 yd line (11:38 4th), good throw in tight coverage for 11 yds to Broyles-pumped to RB in flat then threw a bullet in tight window shows a glimpse of NFLness to his game, solid 20 yd seam route to Broyles with good velocity but was wide open, 38 yd TD on 9 route to Stills that actually was a terrible throw as Stills had 5 yds on him but he waited too long to throw and threw an arcing ball for a jump ball with it being lucky Stills won it (7:01 4th). When WR Ryan Broyles went out with an ACL tear in the A&M game it really showed his dependence on him as in the final 4 games he had 1/6 TD/INT ratio, the team went 2-2 in that stretch, and 2 of those 4 games he had a passer rating under 100 which for the college formula is absolutely horrible. He’s coming back for 2012 which is smart as right now I have an early 2nd round grade on him 12/31/11. Noticed a little bit of a belly on him in the OSU game. Wears a brace on his left leg. In the 2011 Oklahoma St. game (Big 12 Championship) he showed happy feet in the pocket and threw high to a wide open TE late in progressions (14:02 1st), very poor decision throwing into quadruple coverage for pbu that easily could have been INT (12:55 1st), started poorly missing 5 straight passes as he kept getting pressured and showed poor ability to handle it and step up to make a tough throw as WRs were open, solid 10 yd in to open WR, barely overthrew deep 9 route with WR only having half a step, good throw to wide side of field to open WR on 10 yd curl for 1st, threw 9 route too inside allowing CB to win jump ball for INT in the end zone (6:58 1st), good throw on 15 yd in with pressure in his face but a tad behind and WR dropped the catchable ball, good throw to wide side for 10 yd out with solid timing though did make WR jump a bit for it, perfect throw in stride to WR on post who just wasn’t open for pbu, too high to open WR on 15 yd in forcing punt, solid 10 yd curl but a tad high to WR, good 15 yd out to wide side of field open WR showing good timing and accuracy, very bad decision throwing into coverage on 9 route for pbu and almost INT, terrible ball security seeing unblocked LB come right up the middle and allowing the sack and FF that was returned to the 2 yd line for a TD that started the blowout (4:45 2nd), threw way too high across the middle giving WR no chance and causing punt, absolutely horrible play with ball slipping out of his hands and DE running it 20 yds for a TD (12:00 3rd), rolled right and threw 15 yd out to WR but was high and away forcing very tough diving catch, very poor mobility unable to avoid unblocked rushing LB despite him going too fast and him being very easy to avoid, good throw stepping up in pocket with rushers everywhere and throwing a bullet accurately to open WR on 15 yd in, poor decision on 9 route that was covered underthrowing it for INT (8:17 4th). Listed as the #57 player on my Top 100 Board going into the 2012 season. In the 2012 Kansas St. game he rarely made the most of his opportunities as he struggled throwing on the run, showed no leadership when they were down, and lost at home against a team that was a 15 pt underdog. He continues to look terrible and is dropping even further down my board as it’s more evident than ever that Ryan Broyles was what made him look good 9/23/12. Listed as the #84 player on my Top 100 Board in the middle of the 2012 season. In the 2012 Texas game he had wide open FB but overthrew touch pass-would have been +15 yds, good pass to open WR for 10 yd slant, had bad intentional grounding against mild pressure, his team scored 36 pts in 1st half and he maybe made 2 NFL caliber throws-his elite stats are meaningless, had pick 6 on bad throw on out with two defenders in area, very good 32 yd throw vs. tight cov laying it over defenders shoulder. In the 2012 Notre Dame game he had all day to throw in 1st Q with wide open WRs, no pressure/wide open WR on out and Jones underthrew it by 3 yds for almost pick 6?, saw Manti Te’o coming up middle and just took sack w/o dodge or throw away attempt, had great play on rolled snap grabbing it in end zone on the run and turning and throwing it to WR in flat all in one motion to avoid safety, holes evaporated later in game but he rarely was pressured and still couldn’t give his team points. In the 2012 Oklahoma St. game he had numerous wide open hitches then had open 15 yd post corner to pylon for INC settling for FG-0-1 on hard throws, overthrew open out-got WR’s legs cut, miscom with RB on out-3 and out, terrible throw as he got hit (scared and tried to throw/duck) right to LB for INT-embarrassing! (6:14 1st), well thrown +20 yd cross, open 8 yd out for TD but too high for INC, 15 yd TD on catch and run (2 yd out to wide open FB-perfect example of offense exaggerating his numbers), threw fade 5 yds OOB, very impressive 20 yd back shoulder throw-best throw of the night for him. The more I watch this kid the more I think I wouldn’t even spend a 3rd round pick on him as his flaws aren’t correctable. 4th round 11/26/12. In the 2012 Texas A&M game (Cotton Bowl) he once again struggled against a good D and had a few terrible moments of inaccuracy or lack of toughness with the worst being a “don’t hit me” moment on 4th and 3 throwing into the dirt (12:06 4th). 4th round as a career backup 1/9/13.

Overall: Other than the A&M prospects I feel like there is no prospect in this draft that I know better than Landry Jones. Having watched him for 4 straight years, numerous times a year, I doubt I’ll look back at my rating of him and cringe. That being said I am very much against the general consensus on him as I think that the analysts who have him as a Top 5 QB in this draft are way off the mark and that he will never be even an average starter in the NFL. Jones at 6’4 225, with a strong arm, and 4 years as a starter at a top level program has the general attributes of a top level prospect yet for the past few seasons I’ve seen him fail time and again in the biggest moments against the best competition. He’s the type of quarterback who looks great when throwing against air but struggles to sense the rush, struggles to avoid pressure, struggles to diagnose complex defenses, is timid about getting hit, and is very bad at threading the needle against tight coverage. This last attribute is in my opinion one of the most underrated aspects of scouting a quarterback as in the NFL the windows get smaller and smaller and Landry struggles mightily when that occurs. In the red zone, where windows are at their smallest in the college game, he was atrocious and became so bad that Bob Stoops in the 2nd half of his junior year began replacing him with Blake Bell in those situations. The fact that OU’s all time leading passer was replaced regularly in the red zone is a HUGE RED FLAG! In games where he faced a tough defense he consistently struggled (Kansas St., Notre Dame, TCU, Texas A&M in 2012) yet his overall stats were balanced out with his huge games against inferior defenses (959 yds 10 TD vs. Iowa St. and West Virginia in 2012). Landry Jones is an extremely easy grade for me as I see the issues he has with pressure and when defenses play tight man to man coverage and think that he will be a bust as a starter due to these issues. 6th round grade as a career backup and my #9 QB 3/17/13.

10. Sean Renfree Duke #19 6’3 219 Sr.

Stats: ACC

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

3113

67.3

19

10

18

7.06

136.3

2011

2891

65

13

11

18

6.66

125.7

2010

3131

61.4

14

17

23

6.75

120.7

2009

330

68

4

2

3

6.60

141.8

Combine:

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

1 yr %

6030

219

 

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes: X-fer from Tennessee. He has NFL size, a release I’m not a huge fan of but isn’t terrible-just a bit slow, and average zip. In the 2012 Cincinnati game he slightly overthrew open RB on wheel route, threw behind post for should be INT in red zone, good arm strength with ball almost 50 yds in the air on deep jump ball, decent mobility for 4 yd scramble, terrible INT deciding to throw wheel route before play began and throwing into double cov for easy pick, perfect throw against bracket cov-NFL throw (3:52 3rd). I like him as a mid to late round guy as he has an NFL frame, good accuracy, and decent mobility for his size. He lacks the decision making, zip, or athleticism to be anything special but a backup and possible starter project. 6th round 1/1/13.

Overall: Sean is a player that carried his team the past 3 years and while he lacks the overall talent to become an NFL starter I think he should be a quality backup for a long time in the NFL. At 6’3 and with good arm strength he has the look of an NFL QB. Despite playing with two wideouts on the NFL’s radar he never put up great numbers but that was largely due to the rest of his supporting cast which was below average. Mike Mayock says he has the best anticipation of any QB in this draft and while I disagree with him I will admit that I only saw him play in 2 games. Overall he’s a player that I lightly scouted but saw as a career backup type with an outside chance to start down the road. 6th round as my #10 QB 3/19/13.

11. Alex Carder Western Michigan #14 6’1 7/8 216 Sr.

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

1652

58.5

13

10

 

6.7

123.6

2011

3873

65.7

31

14

 

7.7

145.4

2010

3334

63.1

30

12

 

7.3

140.6

2009

27

71.4

0

0

 

3.9

103.8

Combine: Not invited

Pro Day:

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

6017

216

 

 

4.92

33

905

4.32

7.18

Notes: In the 2011 Purdue game he had a good 49 yd TD on flea flicker (9:15 1st), solid 20 yd fade giving WR a good chance at it but INC, threaded the needle really well in very tight coverage but INC-his accuracy is impressing me though his release isn’t that smooth, overthrew open post to safety for INT, solid speed on 15 yd QB draw, miscom with WR, poor decision throwing into double cov nearly for pick, beautiful corner route thrown in stride with velocity-NFL throw (14:55 3rd), solid burst on 8 yd run, good toughness leveling a CB going after a fumble, good 45 yd post to open WR in stride, ball went through WR hands right into stomach of CB for INT-not his fault, accurate bullet over middle on 15 yd in, duck but accurate duck for 8 yd out, bullet threaded to WR in traffic for would be TD but wasn’t looking and hit him in head, another would be TD pass turned INC b/c WR slipped, nice 5 yd TD on rollout in tight window,     I am very intrigued by him as he has NFL size, solid arm strength (not a howitzer but capable), an okay release, and very good accuracy. I think he will have a down year in 2012 b/c his 3 WRs all are graduating but I like him as a late round polished project type with a medium ceiling. 7th round 12/27/11.

Overall: Carder is a player that had a great 2010 and 2011 and then ended his career on a down note in 2012. I called it on 12/12/11, “he will have a down year in 2012 b/c his 3 WRs all are graduating,” so his poor stats in 2012 will likely cause him to go undrafted but doesn’t cause me to lose interest in him at all. I see him as a career backup with good accuracy, arm strength, and size (came in 1/8 inch shorter than 6’2 so basically 6’2). I think he’s very underrated and consider him far superior to more heralded prospects like Zac Dysert. 7th round as my #11 QB 4/14/13.

12. Colby Cameron Louisiana Tech 6’2 1/8 212 Sr.

Comparison: Kellen Moore

Stats:

Year

Yards

%

TD

INT

Sack

YPA

Rating

2012

4147

68.8

31

5

 

7.9

153.2

2011

1649

54.7

13

3

 

7.7

136.7

2010

461

59.3

1

5

 

5.1

94.5

2009

142

53.8

0

0

 

5.5

99.7

Combine: Poor throw to sidelines on 9 route drill. He has the weakest arm of his group. Weak but accurate on post corner route.  

HGT

WGT

Arms

Hands

40

Vert

Broad

Shuttle

3 Cone

6021

212

 

 

4.71

30.5

904

4.28

6.98

Notes: Watched 2 of his games yet never scouted them.

Overall: Cameron is a noodle armed QB similar to Kellen Moore as they are both accurate and extremely proficient at running an offense. Cameron is taller and more athletic than Moore yet has inferior anticipation and accuracy so the comparison isn’t perfect but both appear headed to career backup roles as mentors for more talented QBs and great film study partners. Cameron had a spectacular 31/5 TD/INT ratio but was only the full time starter for 1 year and has a weak arm so he’s even less likely than Moore to develop into a starter at the next level. Career backup who barely gets a draftable grade. Late 7th round as my # QB 4/14/13.

 

Free Agent

Tyler TettletonOhio #4 Son of Mickey Tettleton. Very undersized QB who doesn’t look NFL caliber in his frame. Throws an average ball as he doesn’t have great accuracy and doesn’t have an extremely strong arm. Undrafteable 9/1/12. In the 2012 Louisiana Monroe game he began with a perfect +25 yd out on the run and then a +40 yd post-both well thrown both with solid zip, perfect throw on 9 route in stride for 68 yd TD-came out throwing perfect deep balls all over the place, fumbled on early snap by C, perfect +35 yd post again in stride to WR-hit right after it but stayed strong in pocket, has good vision and quickness for a runner being a legit runner and not just a run straight and then slide type, underthrew 2 more deep routes but completed them both as well for +30 yd gains-average arm strength, miscom with WR on out for INT.

Jordan Rodgers Vanderbilt #11 6’2 205 Sr. Brother of Aaron Rodgers. Offensive production nearly doubled for team in final 6 games that he started vs. first six on bench. In the 2011 Cincinnati game he had an underthrown on flea flicker but showed solid arm strength with ball in air 40 yds for pbu, almost pick six but pbu with CB jumping hitch in flat, solid 7 yd scramble after he avoided unblocked LB blitzing up middle, overthrew wide open WR for possible 43 yd TD, got scared by rush and threw off back foot inaccurately for wide open slant forcing punt, good 10 yd scramble when play broke down, terrible throw well over WR’s head 10 yds downfield throwing as he rolled out-should have been INT, perfect 10 yd cross in traffic but dropped by WR-NFL throw in tight window (11:35 2nd), bad throw on TE screen as it was way too low, poor throw on 9 route tossing it 2 yds OOB, good speed on zone read for 7 yds-no jukes but has good pure speed, bad INT on slant telegraphing pass, benched early in 3rd Q and backup came in. He has a good arm, solid height, and good pure speed so there are some physical tools to work with but he would be a free agent at best if he didn’t have a famous brother. That being said he does have arguably the best QB in the NFL as his brother, mentor, and teacher so I would take a shot on him in the late rounds hoping he developed down the road. 7th round 1/3/12. In the 2012 South Carolina game he had good 5 yd run on 3rd and 1, a tad high on WR screen, solid throw on 4th and 3 but dropped by WR for TO, solid hitch throw dropped by wideout, very good pass in seam to WR between S/LB who caught if rot 15 yds then took off for final 62 yds for TD (10:50 2nd), terrible throw going +25 yds across his body in middle of field but completed (8:52 2nd), missed open WR for TD on out as just a bit high and outside forcing FG, fumbled ball on zone read (ZR), WR dropped quick slant-3rd drop of game, slightly underthrew pump and go for pbu on 30 yd 9 route, perfect throw on 20 yd post vs. decent cov, fumbled snap for huge loss, 18 yd throw vs. zone, 14 yd scramble, great throw chunking it +40 yds as he was hit on 4th and 7 yet WR dropped it to end game. Still looks robotic. Consistently looks at the rush instead of keeping eyes downfield yet can’t 100% blame him as the OL is bad. Has good mobility but relies on it too much. Is best just dropping back and throwing it yet they rarely call it? 8/30/12. They were 5th worst in FBS on TD % in the red zone. In the 2012 North Carolina St. game they did a lot of wildcat as it was very effective, 15 yd scramble for TD on 3rd down. He showed enough in arm strength and blood lines to be possibly drafteable but I’m not a big fan of his as he’s David Carr robotic, is terrible in the red zone, and at 6’1 he’s undersized. Free Agent 1/2/13.

Zac Dysert Senior Bowl: Day 2: Great timing on curl vs. tight cov, terrible overthrow on hitch, threw duck on out, terrible lack of zip again this time on deeper out for near INT, not a fan of his throwing motion. He didn’t impress me but has nice size and athleticism so he could be a late round project. I don’t like his arm either accuracy or arm strength so he stays as a camp invite 2/13/13. Combine: Suffered a hamstring tear while training for Combine and won’t be able to work out.  Free Agent 4/14/13.

Tevin Washington Georgia Tech 6’0 #13 Sr. A triple option QB who has a better arm than previous ones. In the 2011 North Carolina game he had a nice 18 yd out to wide open WR to start the game (11:10 1st), poor throw on open 10 yd out forcing amazing one handed jump catch, perfect throw to wide open WR on 59 yd TD as everyone bit on play action (8:02 2nd), terrible decision to throw pass in double for easy int (6:10 2nd), great cut on option run to take it inside for 10 yds on 3rd and 4 with DE looking to have TFL (1:40 2nd), very nice 15 yd throw vs. zone on 3rd down for 1st, terrible 0 route closer to CB than WR. Undraftable on most boards but I could see him being a #3 QB who takes on the Brad Smith type duties of wildcat QB, h-back, trick play WR, etc. Free agent 1/29/13.

Zach Maynard Cal #15 Sr. Looks like a short, undersized lefty without an NFL future. Doesn’t have a strong arm at all. In the 2011 Stanford game he had a hard toss to RB who wasn’t expecting for fumble, perfect 12 yd out showing great accuracy, got his WR killed throwing high on 3 yd out forcing him to jump and get walloped by DB, perfect 17 yd TD on fade against very tight coverage (5:58 1st), solid 10 yd fade route to jumping WR who was covered, great rollout avoiding pressure and throwing perfect toss on the run for 9 yds (14:07 2nd), good mobility again rolling out then scrambling for 4 yds avoiding defenders, took sack on rollout on 4th down with poor decision, great twisting and turning scramble ending with a dive for 12 yds on 3rd and 11 showing speed, jukes, and heart, great improve rolling out on 3rd and G from 3 to get close to running for TD then stepping back to throw short pass to open TE when LB committed to him running (10:55 4th). I don’t know if he has the talent or more importantly the size to become a legit NFL prospect but I am very impressed with his athleticism, heart, and accuracy. Free Agent 11/21/11. 1st in Pac 12 on 3rd down for passer rating and TDs thrown. Considering he’s in the same conference as Luck and Barkley that’s pretty impressive.

 

Undraftable

Nick Florence Baylor Burned a redshirt year in 2011 due to the Texas Tech game (only played 1 half-he volunteered so shows his team first attitude). Replaced RGIII in 2012 for Baylor. In the 2012 Louisiana Monroe game he had a terrible INT throwing right to LB who covered curl, hit wide open post for 43 yd TD but missed wide open 9 route for easy TD one throw earlier-guys are wide open. Big 12 scholar athlete of the year. In the 2012 UCLA game he was killed by unblocked rusher but still threw a strike in stride to WR for +50 yds, great toughness getting 9 yds and spinning off a hard hit, perfectly thrown fade, +15 yd scramble from pressure, perfect 9 route for 55 yd TD-in stride. He’s similar to the Tech QBs with his numbers, arm strength, and height yet has more athleticism than they do and a bit more arm strength too which makes me not completely discount him. Career backup but with a borderline draftable grade 7th round 1/2/13. He surprisingly decided to retire after his senior year and is undraftable due to quitting the sport.

James Vandenberg Iowa #16 6’3 Sr. Has a Jeff Tedford type release high up near his head the entire time and flicking it off by his helmet. Throws a nice spiral and has an average release. In the 2011 Michigan St. game he threw open 10 yd out poorly forcing sliding catch that didn’t happen, poorly thrown fade that was too far inside and basically fell right to CB for INT (8:40 1st), solid rollout throw for 10 yds on curl-though ball fluttered, threw behind open WR on seam route but he was able to make circus catch, great job seeing open TE on other side of field throwing it as he was pressured for 10 yd TD (14:52 2nd), horrible throw behind WR on out in flat that should have been pick 6 but dropped, threw a bullet on short dump off to RB that deflected off his hands-why do that?, overthrew fade barely on 3 yd line, showed average arm strength but good accuracy on 48 yd post route (3:25 3rd), showed good intelligence going deep when DE jumped offsides, underthrew open slant for INC. Looks like a kid with an above average arm who will put up solid but hardly great numbers and never be more than a backup at best in the NFL. He is very robotic with his mechanics, his accuracy isn’t very good, and he doesn’t seem to have the talent to make a team willing to wait and develop him. Free agent 11/18/11. In the 2012 Michigan game he showed a strong arm but again looked robotic and has very poor numbers this year as their running game is poor and he can’t carry them, good seam route for 16 yd TD, solid mobility avoiding rushers at times-doesn’t have great speed but good quickness. Once again he didn’t impress (10 pts in first 3 ½) and his stats make him clearly undrafteable 11/17/12.

Barrett Trotter Auburn #14 6’2 206 Sr. Backup to Cam Newton in 2010. Was very clutch in his first start leading his team to a comeback victory vs. Utah St. in the 2011 season opener scoring 14 points in the final 2:07. In the 2011 Alabama game he didn’t start with Clint Moseley replacing him at halftime in the Florida game. He lost his starting job and never regained it, undraftable 1/29/13.

Caleb Terbush Purdue #19 6’5 225 Sr. Backup who became starter due to an injury. In the 2011 Western Michigan game he had a good 9 route that was INC due to tight coverage, has an odd release and looks very mechanical, terrible fumble on sack holding it out with one hand even though he saw DE coming, benched after that play, came back a few series later and showed very poor mobility on scramble losing 1 yd and getting creamed-pocket passer for sure, good strong throw on 15 yd curl, solid throw 40 yds downfield on 9 route but did underthrow INC a bit. He’s tall and has a solid arm but I saw nothing to warrant an NFL grade right now. Undrafteable 12/27/11. 

Ryan Aplin Arkansas St. #16 Sun Belt POY in 2011. In the 2012 Oregon game he started 10-11 yet I never really noticed any throws as it’s all 0 routes, bubble screens, hitches, and slants. Very poor throw on +20 yd attempt going well over his WR’s head for INT, off target on 8 yd curl, good play on 2nd and 2 acting like he was going to scramble then throwing 10 yd pass to open WR for 72 yd catch and run TD, had great 37 yd TD throw on the run-WR wide open but hit him in stride and showed solid arm strength (8:55 4th). I’d like to see him in another game but tonight he looked undrafteable as on any throw +10 yds he was well off target 9/1/12. 1st team Sun Belt Conference in 2012. Sun Belt OPOY in 2012 (2011 as well). 2 star prospect out of HS. In the 2012 Kent St. game he has all the intangibles, is tough as hell, and is mobile yet I just doesn’t see the arm strength or accuracy to make him NFL caliber. Undraftable 1/7/13.

Jeff Tuel Washington St. 6’3 214 Sr. As a true freshman in ’09 he had a bit of playing time and performed okay (789 58% 6/5) and took the next step in ’10 (2,780 59% 18/12). With two more years of eligibility he has a chance to gain weight and experience and make himself a legit NFL prospect. Missed 9 games due to injury in 2011. In the 2012 BYU game he avoided rushers and got 3 yds-shocked he wasn’t sacked, wouldn’t give up on play and threw bad pick when rolling right, overthrew dump off to RB, great throw at end of half to WR in back of end zone for spectacular TD catch-called back for hold, missed open WR on +40 yd throw, ball batted at LOS, threw wobbly ball well over WR head-doesn’t throw great spiral, doesn’t have strong arm, isn’t that accurate, isn’t that productive-Undrafteable 8/30/12.

Chris Relf Mississippi St. A big, athletic dual threat QB who had a good ’10 passing (1,789 56% 13/6) and running (713 3.7 5 TD). More of a big, strong, and durable QB who has a little bit of running ability than a true “running QB,” as he doesn’t have great speed. Carried the ball 27x in losing effort to Auburn spending a lot of time in the tub to get ready for LSU on a short week. In the 2011 LSU game had a terrible throw into double coverage that should have been intercepted (5:08 1st), couldn’t handle high snap fumbling it but recovering it (5:06 1st), very poor play getting sacked after 7 secs as eventually you just have to throw it away (4:44 1st), good 11 yd run showing okay speed and solid strength to take a hard hit and make it not look too bad (3:33 1st), took a 6 sec coverage sack (8:16 3rd), took another 6 sec coverage sack (6:44 3rd), and benched due to ineffectiveness late in the 4th Q (10:00 4th).

Kolton Browning Louisiana Monroe game In the 2012 Arkansas game he led his team back from a big deficit and had the game tying score to force overtime with a long run-pretty mobile. Followed it with a near upset of Auburn and then Baylor a week later. They run a spread and tempo offense ala Oregon. Is a lefty. In the 2012 Baylor game he threw a perfect 23 yd fade for a TD (7:50 1st), threw perfect +20 yd throw on the run-very good at that, has good mobility for college but not fast enough for NFL to be true dual threat-has good size though to take a hit. He has good mobility, is great throwing on the run, and has been such a leader for this down and out program yet he doesn’t look NFL to me. Free Agent 9/28/12. In the 2012 Ohio game he did a lot of short passing, overthrew WR in seam route for INT-touch pass, awkward release, poor arm strength. Undrafteable 12/28/12.

Mike Paulus North Carolina 6’5 215 Sr. #4 rated QB in 2007 HS class. Paulus more or less never played with only 13 attempts in ’08. Was the #3 QB behind Soph T.J. Yates and Jr. Cameron Sexton. Needs to beat out one of these two to become a relevant prospect again (12/08).

Seth Doedge Texas Tech #7 6’1 197 Sr. Before I even saw him for the first time I saw his poor height (6’1), weight (under 200), medical history (blew out his knees in back to back years in HS), and the fact that he never started until his senior year and I basically called him undrafteable. In the 2012 Kansas St. game he didn’t impress me with his arm strength and rarely made NFL throws. Undrafteable 11/2/12.

Morgan Newton Kentucky Sr. #146 in ESPN 150 for ’09. Highly recruited out of HS where he won 3 state championships. In ’09 he was going to redshirt but it was pulled when Hartline got injured. He barely lost out to Mike Hartline in ’10 and didn’t take it too well. I noticed him in the ’10 Compass Bowl vs. Pittsburgh (his first career start after Hartline was kicked off team) as he is tall, thick, and athletic making him the perfect dual threat QB. Is very raw passing wise at this stage but should develop 1/9/11. In the 2011 Western Kentucky game he overthrew a wide open out throwing it very poorly out of bounds (13:15 1st), threw a terrible int in double coverage (10:10 1st), poor decision holding ball too long for intentional grounding (1:12 1st), showed his promise throwing a pass +60 yards in the air right on target (1:03 1st), delay of game (0:57 1st), tripped and fell in 5 step drop (0:45 1st), easy 10 yd throw too high forcing WR to jump and get hit hard for dropped ball and punt (9:58 2nd), very nice 30 yd pass perfectly thrown but dropped by WR Matt Roark (2:10 2nd), 34 yd throw to wide open WR that I still didn’t like as he made the received stop to get the ball (not in stride) and the ball was a duck (0:10 3rd), poorly thrown 9 route causing WR to slow down and CB to intercept it (15:00 4th), one of the worst throws I’ve seen as he overthrew his FB out of the backfield who was 5 yards away by a good 3 feet (10:35 4th), huge 58 yard run on 3rd and 14 to put the game away (6:25 4th), delay of game (5:03 4th) and perfect 31 yard TD to wide open WR (4:40 4th). Seems to throw the deep ball better than the shallow ball. Is only a short yardage QB in 2012 to start the season at least.

Riley Nelson BYU #13 6’1 200 Sr. A lefty who has been in competition for a job each of his first 3 years. In the 2012 Washington State game he had horrible throw on 0 route well over head, good back pylon touch throw for TD, completed but high on hitch route forcing WR to jump, 9 yd scramble-good strength pushing pile for additional yard, low on rollout for INC on dump off with pressure in face, underthrew deep ball showing below average arm strength-also lacks accuracy and poor height/weight. Threw 3 jump balls that all should have been picked yet only 1 was. Undraftable 8/30/12. 

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