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Draft Blog Picks 1-18 Round One

April 26, 2013

This page is done. Go to the new one for picks 19-32

Team: 49ers

Pick: 18th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  S, 3-4 DE, WR, NT, CB

Player: Eric Reid

Jon’s Profile:  Reid is a very good athlete who is a big hitter that is at times a liability in coverage. He’s pure muscle and as such he’s a tight athlete so he’s not the type of safety that will cover a slot receiver or be good in CF. He does have good instincts though and solid enough hands (2 INTs each of the past 3 seasons) so I think his best fit would be as a Cover 2 safety in scheme that plays “halves.” With 4.53 speed he’s very fast and often is a heat seeking missile when the play is in front of him so he’ll be an impact playmaker but is clearly a SS not a FS and a defensive coordinator will have to scheme around his limitations. As such he drops into the early 2nd round area as my #4 S 4/14/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

44

28

35

40

?

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  I like Reid but he was the #4 safety on my board and the #3 or #4 safety on most boards with the consensus #2 safety (Matt Elam) still available. It’s strange the 49ers moved all the way up to #18 for a guy that might have made it to them at #31. I know they had extra picks to use but to me it was a waste of “ammo.”

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Does LSU have a 1st rounder out of their secondary every year?

Team: Steelers

Pick: 17th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  3-4 OLB, LT, CB, NT, 3-4 DE

Player: Jarvis Jones

Jon’s Profile:  If Jarvis was 1 inch taller in both his height and arm length and had no medical issues he’d be not only the #1 PR but the #1 player overall on my board for this draft. Unfortunately Jarvis is only 6’2 with only ’33 arms and has had numerous injury issues in his 3 collegiate seasons including the spinal stenosis issue he dealt with in 2009 after getting a stinger as a freshman at USC. There have been no issues with it since then yet the fact that USC’s medical staff recommended he end his football career will obviously be a red flag for a team deciding on whether to use a top pick on him. I doubt Jarvis will have any issues with his spine early in his career yet there is a very good chance his career is cut short due to it, similar to how Marcus McNeill was an All-Pro LT early in his career yet retired early due to his back getting progressively worse. Back and spine issues never go away and I do worry that it will eventually pop back up in Jarvis’ life down the road. Yet even without his medical issues the biggest issue with Jarvis is his size as at 6’2 245 he can’t handle every down duties as a 4-3 DE meaning a team will either use him as a 3-4 OLB or on run downs as a 4-3 OLB and then on pass downs as a 4-3 DE. The second approach is how the Broncos have used Von Miller the past 2 seasons and it’s worked tremendously yet, while I compare Jones to Miller, Jones isn’t as quick or as strong as Miller appeared to be coming out of college and is a slightly less talented version of him. Nonetheless Jarvis is still a top level athlete and his productivity is comparable to only Damontre Moore as in the past two seasons Jarvis has dominated the SEC with 155 tackles, 28 sacks, 44 TFL, and 9 FF. The FF is a huge part of why I’ve moved Jones ahead of Moore in my final rankings as even with his lack of size and medical issues I see a Pro Bowl caliber player in Jones who will collect sacks, be able to drop in coverage, and dislodge the ball from the ballcarrier. I watched Jones the past two seasons and am quite comfortable with him as a Top 10 talent and as my #1 PR in this draft 3/3/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

6

19

28

16

13

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  In my opinion this is the best pick of the draft to this point. Jones was the #1 pass rusher on my board yet somehow was drafted as the #4 pass rusher. I can guarantee you that the Dolphins, Lions, and/or Browns will regret drafting their high upside guy over Jones. One of those early guys will be a bust but Jones to me looks like a perennial 10-14 sack a year type guy. An absolute steal at this point and I don’t care if few agree with me.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Best player in the SEC at times last year and he goes to the Steelers. Of course he does.

Shariff Floyd fell in our laps and Jerry doesn’t even care. It reminds me of 2004 when Stephen Jackson fell in our laps at #22 or #23 (sorry doing this from memory folks) and everyone was ecstatic but Jerry was too smart for that and traded out so the Bills could take JP Losman (great pick guys). Then instead of getting a borderline Hall of Fame RB in Stephen Jackson they got Julius Jones in the 2nd and Marcus Spears one year later in the 1st. Floyd has Pro Bowl potential and likely the two guys we will get won’t. I agreed that trading down was the best option in some situations but Floyd wasn’t available in most situations. We had the steal of the 1st round but he overthought it and now we need to hope we make up for it later with good value picks.

Jerry I hate you!!!!!

Team: Bills

Pick: 16th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  WR, CB, QB, RT, DT

Player: EJ Manuel

Jon’s Profile:  While my grade on EJ Manuel has changed little in the past few months his overall grade appears to have changed dramatically in scouts’ eyes and I now can be considered to be undervaluing him. He has had a spectacular offseason with a great Senior Bowl game (won MVP) followed by a great Combine where he physically looked quite comparable to Cam Newton. Yet my grade has changed little on him since the mid point of the 2012 season as I still don’t see the overall arm talent (velocity, arm strength, accuracy, ability to thread the needle). I had similar questions with Terrelle Pryor when he came out of Ohio State and they make a good comparison as both are big, strong, athletic guys who have overrated arm strength and little experience attacking a complex defense. Manuel has superior accuracy to Pryor yet Pryor tested out better athletically (ran unofficial 40 times at his pro day between 4.31-4.41). I think Manuel is a long term developmental project with elite athleticism but lacks the arm talent and experience as a thrower to ever become the QB many now envision him as. While he’s moved up into the early 2nd round range on most boards he maintains my 4th round grade as the #8 QB in the draft 3/19/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

126

41

27

NR

25

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  Some say he is Cam Newton and if you believe that then he’s worth a mid 1st but I say he’s Terrelle Pryor, big body but a mediocre arm, and so I say he’s a 4th rounder. Another that I didn’t go with public opinion but even the guys who loved him had a late 1st/early 2nd so to me it’s still a reach even if you liked the guy, which obvious I did not.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: So how pissed is Geno Smith right now? His fake smile is probably getting pretty heavy right now.

Wow that’s a shocker at #16 with Manuel but more importantly this means that the Cowboys have great options:

1) Trade down as Tyler Eifert is available and many have a Top 10 grade on him

2) Draft Shariff Floyd. Steelers have to take Jarvis Jones right? It fits too perfectly so to me it’s a done deal which means Dallas gets Floyd Dallas gets Floyd!!!! This is shocking guys! He’s the #5 player on my board and fits a need. Don’t screw this up Jerry!

Team: Saints

Pick: 15th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  LT, 3-4 OLB, CB, DT, S

Player: Kenny Vaccaro

Jon’s Profile:  While Mayock and others have Vaccaro as their #1 S I do not as to me he’s one of the more overrated prospects in this draft that lacks the speed, discipline, or flexibility to be an impact player in the passing game. Vaccaro ran a 4.63 40 which placed him 9th worst among the 60 DBs at the Combine. He followed that up with position drills that showed him to be tight and unbalanced which is exactly what I saw on film as he was great reacting to run plays in front of him but struggled in coverage and often missed tackles in space due to his below average speed. Vaccaro is an ultra aggressive player that will be a huge asset on special teams, will be a team leader, and will be an enforcer on the back end. Yet he lacks discipline on and off the field (numerous on field personal fouls, easily confused in pass coverage in centerfield, off field incidents) and is very much a wildcard. Don’t get me wrong he’ll be a solid starting safety in the NFL but you don’t spend a 1st round pick on an average safety with numerous red flags and that is what Vaccaro is. Kenny is a highly overrated player that lacks the speed, hips, discipline, intelligence, or ball skills to be more than an average strong safety. Late 3rd round as my #11 S who is one of the most overrated players in this draft 4/14/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

103

17

24

11

38

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  Yeah not interested in Vaccaro and have him with Manti Te’o as two of the most overrated players in this draft. The rankings are so different it’s not even worth arguing as we all should just save our breath and check back in 3 years to see who was right and who was horribly wrong.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Wifey wants all the picks to be called by cute kids. She is not getting an invite next year.

Yeah no Vaccaro no Vaccaro no Vaccaro!!! I’m just so happy I don’t have to pretend that I like him. EVERYONE loves Vaccaro but I thought he was an above average SS and very overrated. Bob Sturm interestingly enough agreed with me on this one about how he just didn’t see it. Anyway back to draft coverage but I’m just so happy he’s not a Cowboy.

Team: Panthers

Pick: 14th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  DT, S, CB, OT, WR

Player: Star Lotulelei

Jon’s Profile: Star has been a player I’ve downgraded compared to popular opinion all season as I see the elite frame (6’3 311 with great thickness and no belly) and good quickness for a man his size yet rarely noticed him on film and his motor was less than spectacular. I don’t see Star as an elite athlete but as just a good one and think he’ll likely be an average starter who flashes at times but never ascends to Pro Bowl status. He should be a capable starter for a long time though and his frame/athleticism do give him a remote chance at becoming elite so he warrants a late 1st grade as my #4 DT. I’m sure someone will take him in the Top 15 but in 5 years I suspect I will look back on this grade and see that I rated him more correctly than most did 3/2/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

32

11

22

4

3

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  I’m not a huge fan of Star and thought he was overrated throughout. He’s a big run stopper without a pass rush and those one dimensional guys don’t make enough impact to be deserving of a mid 1st. I still can’t believe my #1 DT and pretty much everyone’s #1 DT Shariff Floyd is still available after 2 DTs were already drafted. If he falls to #18 it will be a shocker!

Drunk Cowboys Fan: This is the 2nd player drafted in the Top 14 that wasn’t at the draft. Interesting as usually these top guys are all here.

Well that sucks. That’s okay though as there are still 2 DTs on the board and the Bills at #16 won’t be taking DT (likely won’t at least) after taking Marcell Dareus just two years ago in the Top 5. 4 picks left and 2 defensive tackles still available. I really have a feeling Shariff Floyd goes #14 but oh wow if he fell to #18.

Team: Jets

Pick: 13th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  PR, RB, S, TE, QB

Player: Sheldon Richardson

Jon’s Profile: Richardson is a player that would have a very similar grade, and has a very similar style, to Fletcher Cox if not for his attitude issues. At 6’2 ½ 294 with 34 ½ arms and elite explosion he’s almost a carbon copy of Cox who went in the Top 15 (had a Top 10 grade on my board) and had a good rookie season for the Eagles. Richardson has all the same strengths (explosiveness, pass rushing ability) and all the same weaknesses (average run defender) yet lacks Cox’s squeaky clean profile as he was suspended in 2012 and has had attitude and coachability issues previously. He fits best in a one gap scheme, the Tampa 2 as a “under” tackle would be ideal, as he can be exploited by bigger OL if forced to hold his ground (DJ Fluker proved this in 2012) yet in the right scheme he can cause havoc with his elite athleticism. He actually was a more productive player this season than Shariff Floyd (in the same conference no less) with more tackles, sacks, and forced fumbles yet while Sheldon is a slightly better pass rusher he’s a far inferior run stuffer so even without his off the field issues he’d have a lower grade than Shariff. I think Sheldon will be a player that is a headache to a coaching staff at times and because of this his top 10 grade (slightly lower than Cox last year) drops to a Top 15 grade. He’s such an elite talent I can’t drop him any further despite the reservations I have with his attitude and me first approach to the game. Top 15 as my #2 DT 3/2/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

13

7

15

14

5

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: I love the kid but had Shariff Floyd higher on my board. Both are outstanding DTs though and Richardson is the better pass rusher and disrupter while being a far inferior run stopper to Floyd. Regarded by all five scouts as a Top 15 player I was frankly surprised that he was still here and even more shocked that Floyd has made it to #14.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Wifey just said cool beard to this guy. The man was dapper. I love that word. Dapper.

Okay so pausing for a bit to talk Cowboys. Best players available at this point that fit the Cowboys are:

Shariff Floyd

Demontre Moore

Sheldon Richardson

Alec Ogletree

Xavier Rhodes (can play safety or CB)

Bjoern Werner

Menelik Watson

At this point Cowboys fans want to hope Star, Shariff, and Sheldon (the three DTs) all still going undrafted for another few picks as that would guarantee at least one of them will fall to us at #18 which a week ago was expected to not happen. At this point I am calling the Jets at #13 to get Floyd as I think the Panthers would love to have him.

Team: Raiders

Pick: 12th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  DT, QB, RT, DE, S

Player: DJ Hayden

Jon’s Profile: DJ is a playmaker. With +120 tackles, 6 INT, 6 FF, and 3 defensive TDs the past 2 seasons he has made plays all over the field. His game film is outstanding but with his small school status it surprised me when I saw how high he was on most draft boards. The former sleeper is unknown no more and could possibly go as high as the 2nd round come April. He’s a player with good quickness and hips who can play man coverage but also has the instincts to play zone. His only issue, other than the lower level of competition, is his run stopping ability as he’s 191 lbs but plays more like he’s in the 170’s. He gives good effort but has a lack of strength that worries me and early in his career it likely will keep him from starting. Give him a few seasons though and a team likely will have a tall, fast, instinctive starting CB. Early 3rd round as my #10 CB 4/8/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

71

14

51

26

37

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: Wow!!!!! That’s the first huge upset tonight as I had a 3rd round grade on him and 2 of the 4 other scouts I used rankings for had non-1st round grade. The Raiders were rumored to be in love with him so good for them they got their guy but wow Shariff Floyd was available and they still went Hayden. I bet they will regret that in a few years.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: The University of Houston powerhouse strikes again. I mean strikes for the first time ever.

Team: Chargers

Pick: 11th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  LT, CB, 3-4 OLB, S, CB

Player: DJ Fluker

Jon’s Profile: DJ is similar to Justin Blalock in that I don’t exactly know if he’s an OG or OT. Unlike Blalock, whom I moved inside to OG, I am keeping Fluker outside at OT due to one reason: arm length. With 36 ¾ arms he has arms like vines that could very well keep pass rushers at bay despite poor lateral quickness. Keleche Osemele proved that as a rookie last year as he struggled at times at the Senior Bowl and Combine with lateral quickness yet played relatively well at RT for the Ravens due to his +36 arms. There will still be a risk that a team drafts Fluker as an OT only to find he can’t hold up yet that scenario wouldn’t be too disastrous as earlier in the season I had him as an OG and had him rated as my #1 OG for the 2013 NFL Draft. Tackles are far more valuable than guards in the NFL so I think it’s worth giving him an opportunity at RT, LT is definitely out of the question, yet at worst a team would have themselves a top notch OG on their hands so either way Fluker will be a valuable commodity as a pro. He is a 2x National Champion who has uncanny raw power and will fit best in a power running offense like what the 49ers or Panthers run. In pass pro he could need a TE to chip to help him against elite pass rushers yet if a team is willing to commit to this than I see no reason why he couldn’t be tried at RT. The positives he brings to a team on running plays should far exceed any negatives he has in pass pro. As a physical specimen he is a rarity with the only 4 players I can think of that are similar at all being Andre Smith, Mike Iupati, Blalock, and Osemele. I would argue he is more talented than Blalock or Osemele, far more motivated than Smith, and Iupati was an All Pro this past season. These comparison are why Fluker is so high on my list as there just aren’t that many 340 lb behemoths with quality game film and nearly 37 inch arms. Top 20 and my #4 OT 2/23/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

23

15

16

24

51

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: Well the OT position officially shouldn’t be addressed at #18 by the Cowboys after this pick. The top 4 OTs are off the board and the next one, Menelik Watson, is more of a late 1st than a mid 1st so the Cowboys should go some other direction or trade down. I liked Fluker but wasn’t in love with him as eventually I think the kid will end up as an OG not OT but with nearly ’37 arms you have to start him out at RT and see if somehow he works out there.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: What the hell are they feeding these Alabama boys?

Team: Titans

Pick: 10th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  CB, RG, DE, TE, WR

Player: Chance Warmack

Jon’s Profile: Every year there are a few prospects that the majority of scouts and media fall head over heels for and I just don’t see it. Sometimes I’m wrong (Doug Martin in 2012) and sometimes I’m right (Blaine Gabbert in 2011) but I don’t change my opinion just because I’m in the minority. This year Chance Warmack is the most extreme of these cases as I consider him a good OG (2nd round grade as my #2 OG) but that still puts me in the minority as at this time (2/24/13) Mike Mayock has him as the #1 player on his board, Todd McShay at #1, Rob Rang at #3, and Scouts Inc at #2. I personally would never even consider taking an OG in the Top 5 of a draft yet don’t even have Warmack as the #1 OG in THIS draft so it’s a moot point. What too many people are failing to realize about Chance is that his tape has been very good but hardly exceptional and this is despite him being in the most optimal situation an OG could ask for. On his left is Cyrus Kouandjio who I rate as the #2 OT in the entire country and a likely top 10 pick next season while on his right is Barrett Jones who won the Remington Award this season as the best center in college football. Warmack has poor foot speed and lateral quickness yet it is largely unnoticed due to the elite talent to his left and right. The Combine showed this as his 40 time (5.49) and position drills were some of the worst among the OL group. He somewhat makes up for this with his elite strength and will be a dominant run blocker yet teams will attack his edges next season and if not given proper help he will be exploited in pass pro. Elite offensive guards don’t need to be helped and the fact that I expect him to struggle as a pass protector makes me unable to give him anything higher than a 2nd round grade. He has similar strength to a Mike Iupati who went 17th Overall in 2010 yet Iupati ran a 5.24 40, was 3 inches taller, 23 lbs heavier, and looked quick in position drills while Warmack ran a 5.49 40 and was slow and lumbering in every drill. In the right system he could be a dominant mauler and even become a Pro Bowler yet his lack of quickness is very obvious and it’s surprising that so many people are stating he’s the best guard they’ve graded since Steve Hutchinson in 2001. A good but far from elite OG who gets a 2nd round grade as my #2 OG 2/24/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

56

4

13

12

8

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: As you can see from the rankings I do not agree with the consensus opinion on this guy. He was Top 13 on every other person’s boards but was #56 on mine as he is a slow, fat, strong guard that will dominate in the run game but struggle in the passing game. I’d be surprised if he is anything more than an above average guard. By the way it’s been +15 years since a guard was taken in the Top 10 yet two were taken this year alone. Am I crazy or are these guys being overvalued.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: The term warmacking (huge bellied guy that wears an undersized shirt) is already in my lexicon. Wifey said “that’s a little baby” when she saw his game film. Yes the 340 lb guy is a “little” baby.

Team: Jets

Pick: 9th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  PR, RB, S, TE, QB

Player: Dee Milliner

Jon’s Profile:  Milliner is very close to a perfect prospect. He was a Blue Chip prospect coming out of HS (#16 in the nation per ESPN), he started and was productive as a true freshman, he was 1st team SEC and 1st team All American as a true junior, and he had a very good Combine running a 4.37 40. The only thing missing is elite hands (he dropped 2 balls in drills and numerous balls on film) and elite quickness but even with those issues he’s a top CB prospect in any draft. He likely will go in the Top 5 of this draft due to the lack of talent around him as the drop off from him to the #2 CB (Rhodes) is huge and I suspect some team in the Top 5 will fall in love with him. My favorite thing about his is his strength as he beats up wideouts during the game and really plays them tough. In run support he’s elite as well with great size (6’0 200) and aggressiveness you rarely see in a CB. He also has no off the field issues, played through injury in 2012 (had a torn labrum but only missed 1 game), and is a player that when he loses speed in his 30’s could very well move to safety due to his size. An elite talent that almost gets a Top 5 grade despite average hands and quickness and is far and away my #1 CB with a Top 10 grade 3/30/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

3

16

6

7

17

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: This is back to back great picks in my opinion and looking at the rankings of Milliner and Austin I’m surprised to find how much more I liked them than other analysts. To me Milliner was far and away the best CB in the draft and all of this talk about his shoulder injury or his poor ball skills was just a smear campaign trying to get him to drop. He isn’t Revis but he will be a #1 CB for a long time and with his size he could move to FS when he gets into his 30’s ala Charles Woodson. I love this kid and my top 4 guys are all off the board with Shariff Floyd being my best available.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Okay now I know this kid. I remember him dominating against Michigan in the season opener at Cowboys stadium. THIS is a kid worth a top pick.

Team: Rams

Pick: 8th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  S, WR, OG, S, RB

Player: Tavon Austin

Jon’s Profile:  When scouting a player you can’t just scout the player but you need to determine what position he will play and how valuable that position is. In football the three least valuable and easiest to replace positions in football are OG, WLB in a 4-3, and slot receiver. Tavon unfortunately plays slot receiver and due to his lack of size (5’8 174) it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to play outside as a wideout. That naturally had me reticent about giving him too high of a grade yet after watching him devastate the college landscape the past two seasons as a slot receiver, kick returned, punt returner, and even as a running back I finally came around to accepting him as one of the elite players in this draft. Going completely against form I’ve given him a Top 10 grade and he will go down as the highest rated slot receiver I’ve ever graded. The reason for this is his pure speed, his elite quickness, and his versatility. The #1 way a slot receiver can add value to an otherwise interchangeable position is by having deep speed. Most slot receivers are of the “quicker than fast” stereotype who run great routes, have great hands, and work the short routes in the middle of the field. Austin can do this but he can do much more as with 4.34 40 speed he has the ability to blow the top off coverage and be more of a DeSean Jackson type playmaker than a Danny Amendola type possession receiver. While his speed and body type remind me of Jackson (DeSean was 5’9 ¾ 169 with 4.35 speed vs. Austin at 5’8 ½ 174 with 4.34 speed) the player he reminds me of due to his rare versatility is Percy Harvin. His OU game was one that will go down in history as, having almost never lined up in the backfield previously, he lined up almost the entire game at tailback vs. a very solid D and torched them for 344 rushing yards to go along with 82 receiving yards. It was a spectacular performance and makes me think that he will be a true superstar in the NFL if taken by an innovative coach whol lines him up both as a slot receiver and in the backfield as a running back. He’s arguably the quickest player I’ve ever graded, arguably the fastest player I’ve ever graded, and arguably the most exciting player I’ve ever graded so he’s a transcendent talent that deserves a grade that transcends that of the average slot receiver. Top 10 as my #1 WR and a future superstar if used correctly 3/17/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

4

12

17

9

29

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: The best slot receiver I’ve ever graded and a guy that transcends the position due to his versatility and deep speed. He’s a combination of DeSean Jackson and Percy Harvin and I think it’s a great pick for a Rams team that has no playmakers to help Sam Bradford. A great pick and keep in mind this trade up was made possible by the trade down with the Redskins last year in the RGIII trade. Those that wondered why they didn’t draft RGIII and trade Bradford at least have to admit that all those extra picks set the Rams up nicely to get guys like Tavon down the road.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: I’m taller than him maybe I could have played in the NFL. Actually never mind, I get winded walking up the stairs at work.

Team: Cardinals

Pick: 7th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  LT, 3-4 OLB, S, WR

Player: Jonathan Cooper

Jon’s Profile:  Jonathan Cooper is the quickest, most athletic guard I’ve ever graded. He isn’t the highest rated guard I’ve ever graded as Mike Iupati and Shawn Andrews both best him due to their elite power yet Cooper still has the 3rd highest grade of any guard I’ve graded in the past decade. The player I would compare him most to would be Davin Joseph, 2x Pro Bowler and 1st round selection in 2006, as both players have the quickness to completely cover up a player. Cooper is even more talented than Joseph though and I suspect that he’ll be an immediate starter and a Pro Bowler early in his career. Interestingly enough I have yet to see anyone, other than me, rate Cooper as the #1 OG in this draft as everyone has fallen head over heels for Chance Warmack. Warmack is stronger than Cooper but Jonathan not only is much faster and athletic than Chance but also has superior game film in my opinion. The fact that Warmack had two elite players playing next to him hasn’t been discussed enough and I think the team that takes Warmack over Cooper will be kicking themselves one day. Warmack is a very good player but Cooper is a rare specimen and will be a future All Pro. Top 20 as my #1 OG 2/24/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

19

8

14

8

10

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick:  Well a guard was taken in the Top 10. I’ve never witnessed it and this year there might be two as Warmack to the Titans seems like a done deal. By the way while everyone had Warmack as their #1 OG I for the past year had Cooper #1. I like him much more as he’s incredibly athlete and I get why the Cardinals needed to improve their OL but to me you just never take an OG in the 1st round let alone Top 10.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: That’s a tough looking dude.

By the way for all you ticket fans. Ribby Paulson this morning had Ziggy Ansah and Barkevious Mingo in the Top 6 of his mock draft. He did it for the crazy names but his mock draft is actually closer to perfection than mine is. Go Gordo!

Team: Browns

Pick: 6th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  CB, 3-4 OLB, QB, S, LB

Player: Barkevious Mingo

Jon’s Profile:  Mingo has intrigued me for quite awhile now as he’s easily one of the most physically gifted pass rushers I’ve ever graded. Yet I’ve never fully embraced him as in my scouting notebook I’ve mentioned his lack of productivity for 3 straight years. If he had been able to give me one season of +50 tackles, double digit sacks and +15 TFL it would have cemented a Top 10 grade in my eyes yet he never could and at this point he’s a mid 1st round, extremely high upside project. A team will take a gamble on him somewhere in the 1st round and either look like geniuses (Giants with JPP in 2010) or like idiots (Jaguars with Matt Jones in 2005) and I highly expect it to be one or the other as Mingo won’t likely settle in as an average starter. He’ll either continue to gain weight on his frame and keep his elite athleticism becoming a dominant edge pass rusher or he’ll gain the weight and lose his athleticism or be unable to gain the weight in the first place and be a colossal bust. As it stands now he’s similar to Bruce Irvin of the Seahawks, who had 8 sacks as a rookie in 2012, as a player who can be a pass rush specialist yet it’s important to remember that Irvin ran a 4.41 40 which is dramatically better than Mingo’s 4.58. Mingo’s value comes from the fact that he’s 6’4 and appears to have a body able to add another 15-20 lbs going forward which is unlike Irvin whose 6’3 245 frame appeared to be maxed out in weight already. In the end Mingo is a pick based more on a team’s willingness to gamble and opinion that their weight room coach can add weight to Mingo’s elite frame than it is really about Barkevious’ current game. He’s the ultimate wild card who has 2nd-3rd round value as a pass rush specialist right now but could develop into a Pro Bowler in subsequent seasons and therefore is deserving of a 1st round grade. Top 20 as my #7 PR 3/3/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

18

10

10

22

14

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: It seems to be a bit of a reach considering most had him at the earliest going #9 to the Jets and some had him dropping to #17 to the Steelers. I like Mingo but he’s now the 3rd pass rusher taken in the Top 6 without a 10 sack season. These are huge red flags people! Meanwhile Jarvis Jones the 1st team All American with 28 sacks the past two seasons grows more angry by the moment. Look above at these rankings. Not one person had him higher than #10. Again it just feels like a reach.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Who the hell comes up with a name for their son like Barkevious?

Team: Lions

Pick: 5th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  CB, OT, RG, S, C

Player: Ziggy Ansah

Jon’s Profile:  Every year there are a few guys so talented with so many red flags that I call them the dumbass genius picks as in 5 years the GM that chooses them will either be called a genius or a dumbass. Ezekial Ansah is exhibit A when discussing that category as I’ve never seen a more tantalizing combination of attributes and red flags in my scouting history. Ansah had 10 career tackles going into the 2012 season and began the season as a backup yet in my eyes he ends the season deserving of a Top 10 grade. That is pure sacrilege in the scouting community as he’s earned nothing with only about a half dozen starts on his resume and just 3 years removed from being a full time track guy. Yet if a team is interested in Ansah the Top 10 is where they’ll need to snag him as an argument can be made that he has the highest upside of any player in this draft. Ansah reminds me of Jason Pierre Paul as he’s a 6’5 270 lb DE with elite arm length that will be a dominant SDE in a 4-3 that can move inside to DT on passing downs. With ’35 arms he will be one of the best pass swatters in the league and while he lacks the elite burst to complete the package he has elite quickness (1st among 56 DL in the shuttle drill) that will allow him to rack up the tackles. I don’t see him being a dominant sack artist (likely will average 8-12 a year) but he will be dominant against the run, impossible to run outside against, will bat down a ton of balls at the line of scrimmage, and be a complete DE like Pierre-Paul was in 2012 (ironically enough when the media criticized him for his lack of sacks and didn’t understand it was probably his best season yet overall). Ansah will have his growing pains and with his lack of experience or burst he definitely has some risk but in 3 years I expect him to be considered one of the better DEs in the league and his upside is worth rolling the dice on in the Top 10. Top 10 as my #4 PR 4/16/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

9

9

2

13

12

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: Universally regarded as a player with one of if not the highest upsides in this entire draft he’s the 2nd team to roll the dice on a pass rusher in the Top 5. I like him more than Jordan as he’s already a great run stuffer and has superior upside to Jordan. I still though think the NFL is underestimating the importance of production as Ansah and Jordan combined for fewer career sacks than Jarvis Jones and Damontre Moore and both of those guys are underclassmen while these guys are seniors.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Ansah follows in a long line of Ghana players. There is um…..

Team: Eagles

Pick: 4th (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  NT, S, RT, RG, CB

Player: Lane Johnson

Jon’s Profile:  Lane has steadily climbed the draft boards the past 8 months. He began by shutting down Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat in the blowout against UT. He followed that up with a dominant season capped off with a quality performance against A&M led by Damontre Moore. He then went to the Senior Bowl and was neck and neck with Eric Fisher as the most dominant OT there and finished it off with a Combine performance that will be legendary. His upside is higher than any OL in this draft as not only did he run a 4.72 (2nd best ever by an OL) but he measured 35 ¼ inch arms. That combination is unheard of and makes him potentially more athletic than the revered Joe Thomas who has been All Pro throughout his career and is the greatest OL I’ve ever graded. While Eric Fisher has more experience and a higher grade on all boards I’ve seen I have Lane Johnson ahead of Fisher because of this historically high upside. Fisher at worst will be a quality RT while Johnson has a chance to be a complete bust and never start. Yet at best Fisher will be a Top 10 OT in the NFL while at best Lane could be the best OT in the NFL and supplant Joe Thomas for that title. I’m willing to roll the dice on his greatness as he has elite speed, elite lateral quickness, and elite arm length while being above average in strength, tenacity, and character. This isn’t a talent with poor game film (1st team Big 12 in 2012) or a poor work ethic so I’m willing to take him ahead of Fisher as I think in the end Lane Johnson will be a Pro Bowl caliber LT who will just need a year or two of patience by an NFL team. Top 10 and my #2 OT 2/23/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

2

6

11

6

4

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: A good pick as he solidifies their RT spot, is perfectly suited (due to his rare athleticism) to Chip Kelly’s up tempo offense, and will be the successor to Jason Peters at LT when he shows his age in a few seasons from now. He was my #2 ranked player in this entire draft so I’m a believer in him and think he and Ziggy Ansah have the highest upside of any player in this draft.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Haha his Dad was wearing a Cowboy hat and looks like he came straight off a ranch.

Team: Dolphins

Pick: 3rd (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order):  LT, CB, 3-4 OLB, OG, S

Player: Dion Jordan

Jon’s Profile:  Jordan has been a huge sleeper in my eyes for awhile now and I felt like I was taking a step out on a limb when in early January I gave him a late 1st round grade. Now Mayock has completed the Combine and the player he gushed the most about was Dion making me feel as if I possibly underrated him. It will be fun to see how Jordan develops over the next few years as at 6’6 ¼ he has the frame to add another 20-30 lbs and be an absolute freak at 6’6 275 with 4.6 speed and great flexibility. That is all projection though and I have the same issue with Jordan’s lack of stats as I do with Mingo’s. Both have yet to have a season with +50 tackles, +10 sacks, or +15 TFL all of which are key benchmarks I use to determine if a prospect dominated their level of competition. Jordan has slightly better stats than Mingo, especially taking into account him missing 2 games in 2012, yet Mingo played in a much tougher conference so essentially it’s a wash. Mingo tested out at the Combine as a better athlete while Jordan appears to be more flexible and agile so overall they essentially are the same prospect. It’s something I said back in early January and it’s something I’ll repeat again as to me they are the same guy: high upside projects who need to gain weight, and both are deserving of a Top 15 grade but carry risks. Top 15 as my #5 PR 3/3/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

12

5

3

5

16

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: A shocker as I was sure if the Dolphins were moving up they’d do it for Lane Johnson. He was a consensus Top 16 pick so everyone liked him but the kid is raw, never had 50 tackles or 10 sacks in a season, and is a high upside roll of the dice. At this point Mayock is looking smart with his top tackle going #1 and his top pass rusher going #3. We shall see if they all work out.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: Cool bowtie. I also love the kid’s comment, “and I’m a great person.” Good to know kid. Good to know.

In my mock I had Lane Johnson at #3 for the Cardinals. I was right about the trade and the player but wrong about the team. The Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie was smart doing this as they still should get a quality player at #12 and need all the picks they can get.

Team: Jaguars

Pick: 2nd (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order): : QB, DE, CB, RT, OG

Player: Luke Joeckel

Jon’s Profile:  There is no prospect I know better than Luke Joeckel. As an A&M alumni I probably watched 34 of his 37 consecutive starts that he made at LT. Watching him has been a treat as he’s the epitome of consistency, intelligence, toughness, and athleticism. He was a freshman All American in 2010, 1st team Big 12 in 2011, and 1st team SEC and All American in 2012. Last year I had him as the #2 OT in the entire country behind only Matt Kalil who went in the Top 5 of last year’s draft and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He was the 25th ranked player in the country (at any position) going into the 2011 season (when no one was talking about him yet), the #4 ranked player going into the 2012 season, the #2 player in the middle of the 2012 season, and the #1 player at the end of the 2012 season. That consistency is what solidifies him as an elite player. Others will criticize his middle of the road measurables but they do so at their own peril as he’s been an elite player from day 1 for the Aggies and will continue to be one in the NFL. His arm length, body proportion, toughness (never once heard of any injury or pain with him), team oriented attitude, and game film are all elite. The game film especially is impressive as he shut down Sam Montgomery, Corey Lemonier, and the Alabama D in 2012 after shutting down Jake Bequette and Alex Okafor in 2011. He’s a battled tested OT who also has had the opportunity to hone his craft in practice against future Top 10 pick Damontre Moore. This should give him an edge and I think he will hit the ground running as a rookie for some NFL team. He lacks the elite athleticism to put him ahead of Joe Thomas or Matt Kalil yet he still is deserving of a Top 5 pick and is the 3rd best OT I’ve graded in the past 7 years. Due to the lack of talent at the top of the 2013 NFL Draft he ends as the #1 Overall Player on my Board and is well deserving of the top pick 2/23/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

1

3

1

1

1

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: Great pick for the Jaguars and it fell in their lap. This is a great building block for a team that likely will be drafting in the Top 5 again next year. This year is Luke Joeckel and next year is likely Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, or a QB to replace the bust that is Blaine Gabbert.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: If Joeckel is the #2 pick in this year’s draft and wasn’t even the best player on his own team then how high will Johnny Football go when he comes out?

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: 1st (1st round)

Team Needs (In Order): WR, RT, CB, NT, 3-4 DE

Player: Eric Fisher

Jon’s Profile:  Eric is a player that is easy to like. At 6’8 306 lbs with quick feet, a great 40 time (5.05), and coming off a dominant Senior Bowl week of practices I completely understand why people have fallen for him. I think he’s a very good player but when I watch his game film I don’t see an elite player. Too often he was pushed back on a bull rush near a QB, too often he lost interest in blocks when a play went away from him, and too rarely did he face a top level pass rusher. Most of the buzz about him was centered around his Senior Bowl performance yet the best pass rusher he faced there was Alex Okafor who is the #8 pass rusher on my board currently with a borderline 1st round grade. Fisher has much more experience than a Lane Johnson yet Lane went up against far more NFL caliber pass rushers during his short time at OU than Fisher did in 4 years at Central Michigan. Eric has very good feet, long arms (34 ½), and is strong but he isn’t heavy handed, his 6’8 frame gives bull rushers added opportunity to get underneath him (ask 6’8 Nate Solder), and his game film is inconsistent. I like Eric but I don’t love Eric and think he’ll settle in as a borderline Pro Bowl LT who will give a team 10 quality years. That is very valuable but keeps him at #3 behind two players in Joeckel and Johnson who can be elite LTs. Barely stays in the Top 10 as my #3 OT 2/23/13.

Rankings:

Anderson’s 500

Mayock’s 100

Brandt’s 100

Daniel Jeremiah 50

Corey Chavous 100

11

1

5

2

2

Jon’s Thoughts on the pick: Andy Reid had too much time to overthink this pick and I think he did. He took the star tackle from the MAC over the star tackle from the SEC.

Drunk Cowboys Fan: I’ve never seen that guy play. He’s the 1st pick in the draft and I’ve never seen him play or even heard of him before. That’s a bad sign.

Well the reports are already in that Eric Fisher is going 1st Overall and I have to admit that I think it’s a 2nd terrible move by Andy Reid, the 1st being the trade for Alex Smith. With Joeckel likely taken 1 pick later at #2 they will forever be linked together and we will see if taking the more athletic tackle with much worse experience and film works for them in the end. Keep in mind that Fisher was a 3rd team All-American vs. Joeckel being a 1st team All-Ameircan. Also keep in mind that the Senior Bowl practices were what catapulted Fisher into the 1st spot yet the only quality pass rusher he faced in that setting was Alex Okafor who likely will be taken in the 2nd round not the 1st. It was hardly a great collection of talent yet people are acting like him dominating there equals dominating in the NFL. I think this was a terrible pick.

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