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Value Chart and The Top 5 Drafts in the NFL

April 28, 2013

Below is my value chart which graded each pick of a team’s by taking the point where the player was selected at and subtracting it from the grade I gave the player on my board (Example a player is taken #1 overall but is ranked #11 on my board then the team gets a -10 value). It’s a bit misleading as many teams took guys way off the map in the later rounds and they were hurt dramatically by that (any player taken not on my board was considered to be the #504th best player on my board). Also a team screwing up their first round is far worse than a team screwing up their 7th round yet on the value chart they are considered equal. So take this with a grain of salt but it does give you an idea of who had a good overall draft and who had a bad overall draft.

Seahawks -1366 (11 picks) Their 4 picks in the 7th round were a combined -797 so I think with 11 picks and all of their holes filled they chose to go far off the map with their final few picks. A backup TE from Rice being chosen was the perfect example of them probably having too many picks this year.

Chiefs -1242 (8 picks) Unlike the Seahawks that had a solid draft except for a few strange late picks that threw off my value chart, the Chiefs had a bad draft and deserve this poor of a value grade. Only one of their 8 picks had a positive value and 5 of their 8 picks had a negative value of over 100. They started poorly by taking Fisher over Joeckel at #1 Overall and it never improved.

Vikings -1235 (9 picks), only 2 positive values were their first two picks (Shariff Floyd and Xavier Rhodes)

49ers -1162 (11 picks) I loved their first 6 picks (+79) but disliked their final 5 picks (-1241). Give me a great first few rounds over a great last few rounds though as the 49ers had a much better draft than the Cowboys due to the greater importance of rounds 1-3 vs. rounds 4-7. If I had time or interest I would weight the value board to account for this but it’s really not worth my time.

Ravens -1146 (10 picks) They are another team that had a good grade but ruined it by going off the map with their final few selections. 3 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds were of -859 with their other 7 picks being good value per my board.

Jaguars -994 (8 picks)

Raiders -962 (10 picks)

Packers -862 (11 picks) Another team that had a good grade but had a bad 4 final picks (-908).

Lions -829 (9 picks)

Bills -697 (9 picks)

Texans -680 (9 picks)

Broncos -660 (7 picks)

Giants -652 (7 picks)

Browns -601 (4 picks) It hurt that the Browns only had 1 pick in the first 5 rounds but only 1 of their 3 picks in rounds 6 and 7 (Garrett Gilkey +27) seemed to be good value.

Patriots -576 (7 picks)

Bucs -508 (6 picks)

Dolphins -508 (9 picks)

Panthers -491 (5 picks)

Saints -407 (5 picks)

Redskins -376 (7 picks)

Jets -375 (7 picks)

Falcons -275 (8 picks)

Bengals -240 (10 picks) Take out their last pick (-253) and they actually had a +13 grade on their first 9 picks. The Bengals get criticized for being cheap and conservative but I think a case can be made that they had the best first 4 picks (Tyler Eifert, Giovanni Bernard, Margus Hunt, Shawn Williams) of any team in this year’s draft.

Titans -222 (8 picks)

Rams -186 (7 picks)

Chargers -156 (5 picks)

Steelers -150 (9 picks)

Cowboys -82 (7 picks) This might surprise some people but it shouldn’t as Randle gave them a +73, Williams gave them a +28, and BW Webb gave them a +28 which combined almost mitigated the disaster that was Frederick (-67).

Eagles -28  If you take out the two picks in the 7th round (-274) the Eagles had a +246 draft grade which is easily the best. Not bad for rookie head coach Chip Kelly yet they tend to always draft well so it doesn’t surprise me that much.

Bears -21 (6 picks) Their grade is also a bit out of whack as they only had 6 picks and their final 2 picks (+273) gave them a good grade despite me having serious misgivings about their 1st round pick in Kyle Long (-146-worst pick value wise in the entire round).

Cardinals +132 (8 picks) It’s two straight years that the Cardinals had one of the best value drafts per my board. This year they did it with some steals in the middle rounds in Tyrann Mathieu (+69) and Alex Okafor (+73) and capped it off with a steal in the 6th round in Ryan Swope (+91).

Colts +226 Surprising as I never mentioned them as one of the best drafts yet they made a lot of underrated picks in John Boyett (+91), Khaled Holmes (+68), and Justice Cunningham (+72).

 

Top 5 drafts

49ers: Their final few rounds ruined them on my value chart but after 4 rounds the 49ers had Eric Reid, Tank Carradine, Corey Lemonier, Vance McDonald, Quinton Patton, and Marcus Lattimore. That is 6 picks with 0 reaches in there with Tank Carradine being my favorite pick of theirs. Considering how deep their roster is already these 6 players will mostly battle it out for backups jobs in year 1 with only Eric Reid penciled in as a starter. What a luxury to have.

Cardinals: They were the #2 team on the value chart and did it with good picks throughout. I don’t agree with taking an OG in the Top 10 value wise but I will applaud them for taking Jonathan Cooper (Top 20 grade on my board) over Chance Warmack (2nd round grade) despite Warmack being almost universally regarded as the better player. He wasn’t and Cooper will prove them right in the end. Whether it was round 1 or round 6 each of their picks made sense and was good to great value. This is a 2nd straight draft where they aced it and if they do it a few more times they’ll be a top team in the NFC.

Vikings: I thought their late round picks were very poor but the first few rounds are so much more important than the mid to late rounds and the Vikings aced their 1st round. They got the steal of the round in Shariff Floyd who was considered a Top 10 talent by everyone and then followed it up by snapping up the #2 CB on my board despite 3 cornerbacks already having been taken. Even their Cordarrelle Patterson pick makes sense, though I thought it was a bit of a reach, and they come out of this draft with two impact defenders and a high upside but raw offensive playmaker. They are a noticeably better team today than they were on Wednesday.

Steelers: The Steelers D had grown old the past few seasons and they lost Casey Hampton, James Harrison, and Aaron Smith recently. Those are 3 players that used to be the best in the NFL at their position so they were losses that will be tough to replace. In this draft they took a great first step in doing that by adding 3-4 OLB Jarvis Jones, S Sharmarko Thomas, and ILB Vince Williams. When looking at each of these players one word comes to mind: tough. They will fit right into that defense and give it more speed and playmaking ability which it desperately needs. They also chose Le’Veon Bell at RB who personally scared me as he’s such a boom or bust type player but fits the smash mouth temperament that the Steelers used to be known for and makes a lot of sense if they plan to go back to those roots.

Redskins: It’s an underrated draft due to them not having a 1st round selection but the Redskins had a very poor secondary last year and they chose the right players to address it. In today’s NFL it’s no longer about shutting out an opposing offense it’s about getting turnovers. The days where teams won 13-0 are over and you can watch a 31-24 game and say that one or both of the teams actually played good defense. The Redskins clearly understand this change in mentality as they went for 3 ballhawks. In round 2 they chose David Amerson who had 18 INTs the past two seasons including 13 in 2011 which led the nation. In round 4 they chose Phillip Thomas who had 8 INTs in 2012 to lead the nation. In round 6 they chose Bacarri Rambo, my personal favorite, who had 16 career INTs at Georgia. All three players had other issues that dropped them on draft day but were considered DBs with elite ball skills. Romo had better watch out the next few seasons when throwing against the Redskins as they added playmakers to their secondary and will make you pay for your mistakes.

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