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Mike Mayock I want your job (2013 Draft Board Recap)

May 10, 2014

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Last year I began a segment where I take 10 comparisons of players from my board vs. Mike Mayocks and keep a running tab to see who the better scout is. I did this because Mayock to me is the best analyst in the media but even he gives you a few head scratchers from time to time. For the full article of last year’s comparison click here. Below are last year’s 10 comparisons and a brief synopsis on who is currently ahead in each matchup.

1. Luke Joeckel vs. Eric Fisher: Neither had the kind of season you would expect for a Top 2 pick but Joeckel showed solid ability at RT and made the Jacksonville Jaguars comfortable enough with him that they traded away their LT Eugene Monroe midseason for draft picks. Unfortunately Joeckel then broke his ankle and missed the rest of the year (only played in 5 games). Fisher on the other hand had far more starts (13 starts in 14 games) yet was also much worse when on the field. He struggled mightily at RT and I question whether he will be able to handle LT like they are hoping for. Verdict: For now we will call this a draw as neither looked deserving of such a high pick. It’s a tie.

2. Jarvis Jones vs. Dion Jordan: Another tough one to grade as Jordan was a nonentity with only 19 tackles and 2 passes defensed in 16 games as a backup. His AV (Approximate Value-it’s a stat that tries to put a general value on all players so that you can compare apples to oranges) was a very bad 2. Jarvis Jones on the other hand had 31 tackles, 1 sack and 2 passes defenses while starting 8 games. Verdict: To be honest, neither player looked deserving of a 1st round pick but Jones clearly was the winner in this matchup if only because he was a part time starter while Jordan was stuck on the bench the entire year. Win for Jon.

3. Alec Ogletree vs. Manti Te’o: Ogletree was in the running for DROY as he had 95 tackles, 1 INT (which he returned for a TD) and led the NFL in forced fumbles with 6! His AV was 8 on the season. Te’o had 48 tackles and 4 passes defenses yet made no major plays which was my big beef with him as a prospect (0 sacks, 0 FF, 0 INT). Verdict: This one is a landslide as Ogletree was fast, explosive and made plays all over the field while Te’o was just a run stopper who was injury prone. Landslide win for Jon.

4. Jonathan Cooper vs. Chance Warmack: Another tough one to grade as Cooper didn’t play a snap due to a preseason broken leg. Warmack played and started all 16 games yet didn’t distinguish himself. He did net an AV of 8 though which is far more than Cooper’s 0 (obviously). Verdict: It’s a cheap win but Mayock wins.

5. Zach Ertz vs. Tyler Eifert: Everyone had Eifert as the #1 TE in last year’s draft as Bob McGinn even polled 16 scouts and 15 rated Eifert higher. I did not though and was proven right as Ertz had 36 catches for 469 yards and 4 TDs while Eifert had 39 catches for 445 yards and 2 TDs. They are almost identical numbers but Ertz did it with less opportunity AND I wrote, “Mayock’s view that Eifert (#13 ranked prospect) is far superior to Ertz (#46) so even if they are about equal I’d say it proves Mayock wrong.” Well they appeared equal so it’s a win for me. Verdict: Slight win for Jon.

6. Matt Barkley vs. Geno Smith: Barkley was a little used backup but when he was in there he was atrocious. Geno had an up and down season but at least showed promise. Verdict: Because 1 year later Barkley is fighting for a roster spot while Smith is the presumed starter in New York this is a landslide win for Mayock.

7. Shamarko Thomas vs. Kenny Vaccaro: Shamarko was the backup safety all year as he was in 14 games but only had 2 starts. His 22 tackles with no splash plays was nothing special. Vaccaro on the other hand completely proved me wrong as I had him as one of the most overrated players in last year’s draft yet he was special. He covered the slot, made big hits and was everywhere for the Saints with 62 tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT and 6 passes defensed. Verdict: Another landslide win for Mayock.

8. Dee Milliner vs. DJ Hayden: Milliner is a tough guy to evaluate as on one hand he had 12 starts, an AV of 5 and solid cumulative numbers with 45 tackles, 3 INT and 15 passes defensed (a very high number actually). On the other hand he was picked on non-stop (reason his passes defensed were so high) and benched multiple times. Hayden on the other hand didn’t struggle as much or as publicly but that’s because he rarely played as he was only in 8 games with 2 starts. His AV was a 1 and his 23 tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT and 2 passes defensed. Verdict: A win for Jon.

9. Damontre Moore vs. Bjoern Werner: Moore played in 15 games with 0 starts as a rarely used backup. He only had 12 tackles but did have 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defensed and 1 blocked punt. Overall though with his 1 AV he was nothing special. Werner surprisingly enough only had an AV of 2 as he had only 14 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 3 passes defensed in 13 games with 1 start. Neither were impactful players and Werner was given every opportunity to shine while Moore was stuck behind JPP, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. Verdict: I actually like my chances of winning this matchup long term with Tuck moving on to the Raiders but this year it’s a slight win for Mayock.

10. Tyrann Mathieu vs. Jordan Poyer: Mathieu had a great rookie season with 65 tackles, 1 FF, 2 INT and 9 passes defensed in only 13 games (11 starts) due to a late season ACL injury. Poyer on the other hand was cut during the season and split time with two teams. His grand total was 0 tackles and 8 punt returns. Verdict: I didn’t understand why Mayock never liked Mathieu last year and will enjoy this year’s landslide win for Jon as well as numerous ones in the future as this comparison should look good for years to come.

Conclusion: It’s always hard to grade a draft one year later as many future Pro Bowl players are just rarely used backups when they are rookies so a lack of production in Year 1 often means nothing about their long term prospects. This comparison was even harder as Joeckel, Cooper, Mathieu and Te’o all had major injuries which affected their overall impact. In the end I had two landslide wins (Mathieu vs. Poyer and Ogletree vs. Te’o), two clear wins (Milliner vs. Hayden and Jones vs. Jordan) and one slight win (Ertz vs. Eifert) which bests Mayock’s two landslide wins (Thomas vs. Vaccaro and Barkley vs. Smith), one clear win (Cooper vs. Warmack) and one slight win (Moore vs. Werner). It’s not the kind of domination I expected but I’ll take a close win over the best draft analyst in today’s media as I suspect “Team Jon” will be even better in 2014 with Cooper and Joeckel being fully healthy.

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