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Mike Mayock I want your job! 2013 RECAP (Year 2)

April 30, 2015

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  1. Luke Joeckel vs. Eric Fisher: Two seasons into this comparison and it is becoming quite apparent that neither should have been a Top 5 pick. Joeckel suffered through an injury plagued rookie season (missed 11 games) but was solid when he was on the field. Fisher on the other hand was available much more often but was worse as a player (-21.5 grade per profootballfocus-4th worst in the NFL). In their second seasons Joeckel and Fisher both were healthy and started all 16 games yet neither shined. Joeckel was at LT the entire year but allowed 8 sacks and had the worst grade, per profootballfocus, among the 5 starting OL on the team. Fisher, moved to LT himself and had a similarly poor season with 7 sacks, 24 hurries and a -17.5 grade). Result: For the second year in a row we will call it a draw as both struggled and are in pivotal seasons as one more season will likely lead both franchises to look for replacement options in the 2016 NFL Draft. Result: tie.
  2. Jarvis Jones vs. Dion Jordan: This is another one where both Mayock and I look bad and I’m stuck trying to sort out a pseudo winner among the wreckage. Jarvis had 18 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 FF in 2014. He missed 9 games due to injury but even on an extrapolated rate it isn’t great production. Yet with Dion Jordan being forced to move to LB due to his lack of pass rush and now being suspended for the entire 2015 season due to a failed drug test, there is no doubt who has been the better pro to this point. Jones basically wins by default. Result: Huge Win for Jon.
  3. Alec Ogletree vs. Manti Te’o: A year after Ogletree had 95 tackles, 1 INT and led the NFL in forced fumbles with 6 he followed it up with 111 tackles, 2 INTs and 4 FF. Ogletree is one of the 10 best linebackers in all of football and his penchant for causing fumbles makes him a rare commodity as a turnover causing linebacker. Te’o followed up his mediocre rookie campaign (61 tackles and 4 passes defenses) with another mediocre campaign (60 tackles, 1 sack and 3 passes defensed). My big beef with him as a prospect was always that he has limited athleticism which cause him to never make big plays and 2 seasons into the comparison I feel that my analysis has been spot on (1 sacks, 0 FF, 1 INT). Verdict: This one is a landslide as Ogletree is a Pro Bowl linebacker while Te’o is just a run stopper who has no major impact on a game. Result: Huge win for Jon.
  4. Jonathan Cooper vs. Chance Warmack: Last year Mayock won this due to Cooper’s season ending injury and I called it a “cheap win.” This year Mayock wins because Cooper was 100% healthy yet rarely saw the field and only started 2 times. The Cardinals appear to have a bust on their hands as do I. Warmack hasn’t been a great player by any stretch, Cooper/Warmack is looking more like Joeckel/Fisher by the day, but he’s started 32 straight games for the Titans since they took him so it’s a no-brainer. Result: Huge win for Mayock.
  5. Zach Ertz vs. Tyler Eifert: Everyone had Eifert as the #1 TE in the 2013 draft as Bob McGinn even polled 16 scouts and 15 rated Eifert higher. I did not though and was proven right as Ertz had 36 catches for 469 yards and 4 TDs while Eifert had 39 catches for 445 yards and 2 TDs in 2013. In 2014 Eifert got hurt while Ertz emerged so with 58 catches, 702 yards and 3 TDs. Ertz is already one of the 15 best tight ends in football and could emerge as a Pro Bowler in the near future. Two years ago I wrote, “Mayock’s view that Eifert (#13 ranked prospect) is far superior to Ertz (#46) so even if they are about equal I’d say it proves Mayock wrong.” Well at this point it is Ertz that appears to be the far superior player so I take great pride in going against the grain and being the correct one. Result: Huge win for Jon.
  6. Matt Barkley vs. Geno Smith: Barkley was a little used backup who appears to have been replaced by Tim Tebow this offseason. I’d be surprised if he is on the Eagles roster on opening day. Geno had an up and down two seasons but at least showed improvement. His QB Rating of 77.5 in 2014 is actually very poor and he might be replaced later today by the Jets in the 2015 NFL Draft but it is an improvement on his 2013 rating of 66.5. This is similar to Jarvis Jones/Dion Jordan as Smith wins by default. Result: Huge win for Mayock.
  7. Shamarko Thomas vs. Kenny Vaccaro: Shamarko was the backup safety all year (again) as he was in 11 games but had 0 starts. That means he’s had 2 starts in 2 seasons so he’s looking like a bust. Troy Polamalu retired this offseason so this is his put up or shut up season. Vaccaro again won this competition but whereas last year he was a Pro Bowl caliber player and appeared on his way to stardom, this year he was benched and struggled mightily in coverage. His cumulative stats of 74 tackles, 1 sack and 2 INTs doesn’t tell the story about how bad his 2014 season was at times. Nonetheless he’s a starting safety and Thomas is not. Result: Huge win for Mayock.
  8. Dee Milliner vs. DJ Hayden: Milliner can’t stay healthy right now so it is hard to determine what the Jets have. He missed 13 out of 16 games but in the 3 games he was healthy he started 2. Nonetheless it isn’t a good sign for the former Top 10 pick that his team just signed 3, yes 3!, cornerbacks this offseason. They aren’t happy with his injury prone nature but I still see talent in him. Hayden has also struggled with injuries as he missed 6 games in 2014 and 8 games in 2013. When he’s on the field he appears less talented to me, I’m obviously biased, but gets the win this year due to the fact that he was on the field and Milliner wasn’t. Result: A slight win for Mayock.
  9. Damontre Moore vs. Bjoern Werner: Another sad comparison that makes both Mayock and I look bad. We both had Top 20 grades on one of these guys and neither appear to be deserving of it. Damontre played in all 16 games as a backup DE and had solid production with 32 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Unfortunately the fact that he still has yet to start in even one NFL game makes the idea of me having a 1st round grade on him, let alone Top 20, rather ridiculous. Werner started 15 games but only had 50 tackles and 4 sacks in that timeframe. He was so inefficient as a rusher that the team sat him as a healthy scratch in their season finale and for their playoff run. I know some will disagree with this as Werner was a starter and Moore was not but I’m going with the fact that Moore had 1.5 sacks more than Werner despite half as many snaps. Also I’m being influenced by the fact that the Giants are looking to give Moore additional playing time while the Colts are looking to turn Werner into a 2 down, run stuffing 3-4 OLB. Result: Slight win for Jon.
  10. Tyrann Mathieu vs. Jordan Poyer: Mathieu had a great rookie season with 65 tackles, 1 FF, 2 INT and 9 passes defensed in only 13 games (11 starts) due to a late season ACL injury. He followed it up with a less impressive season as he admitted to not being 100% until ¾ of the season had been completed. Nontheless he still started 6 games, played in 13 games and is a key member of one of the top defenses in football. Poyer on the other hand was cut during his rookie season and split time with two teams. His grand total was 0 tackles and 8 punt returns. He did better in 2014 with the Browns as a reserve DB getting 21 tackles in 16 games, 0 starts. Mathieu is a playmaking starter and Poyer is a special teams/dime DB. Result: Huge win for Jon.

Final Tally: Mayock had 3.5 wins which were bested by my 5.0 wins. With Tyrann Mathieu, Zach Ertz and Alec Ogletree becoming elite playmakers at their positions I feel confident I will continue to win this RECAP when I review it in future years. What would turn this comfortable win into a bloodbath would be if Shamarko Thomas, Jarvis Jones, Damontre Moore and/or Dee Milliner burst out and become capable starters for their clubs. All will have a chance this season, though I think the Jets have all but moved on from Milliner. Also Bjoern Werner and Geno Smith appear to be on the verge of being benched so that would help my comparisons as well. In the end these comparisons make me look better than Mayock but not necessarily that good overall as we both missed on Joeckel/Fisher (the correct pick in hindsight was Lane Johnson) and we both missed on Jarvis Jones/Dion Jordan (the correct pick in hindsight was Ezekial Ansah). It goes to show you that draft analysis is tough for anyone, amateur or expert, and gives credence to the idea that it is better to have multiple picks later in the draft than a few picks earlier in the draft as it really is somewhat of a crapshoot.

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2 Comments
  1. Peter permalink

    Great job getting things out the door. I gots to know — what do you think of DeVante Parker?

  2. joe permalink

    Devante parker sucks

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