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Mike Mayock I want your job! 2014 RECAP (Year 1)

April 30, 2015

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  1. Jadeveon Clowney vs. Khalil Mack: Clowney never was right physically and missed almost the entire year due to a knee issue. Mack on the other hand was a rock from day 1 as he was the starting OLB all year and had 76 tackles and 4 sacks. I still think Clowney has the much higher upside as I don’t see elite sack numbers ever coming from Mack, validated by his 4 sacks in 16 games, but until Clowney actually gets on the field and is healthy this is an obvious win for Mack. Result: Big win for Mayock.
  2. Marcus Smith vs. Kony Ealy: Neither player impressed but Ealy had 4 sacks and a FF in a reserve pass rusher role while Smith was invisible all year playing only on special teams. I still like Smith’s tools far more than Ealy’s but Ealy was an okay #3 DE and Smith couldn’t even get on the field (0 tackles for the year) so it’s obvious who won this comparison. Result: Big win for Mayock.
  3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Jace Amaro: I had Austin as the #11 player on my board while he’s #51 on Mayock’s. Amaro had 38 catches for 345 yards and 2 TDs in a supporting, #2 TE role while Austin started and had 21 catches for 221 yards and 2 TDs. It seems like Amaro won but Austin missed the final 7 games of the year due to injury and was the starter for every game he was healthy while Amaro only started 4 games and was a healthy scratch in 2 games. Result: Tie as Amaro had better cumulative but Seferian-Jenkins had better per game stats with neither being all that impressive.
  4. Teddy Bridgewater vs. Zach Mettenberger: “Teddy was the #1 or #2 QB on my board for all of the regular season and the entire draft process. Mayock waffled constantly on him as at one point he was #1 (in late February) yet by draft day he was “tied” for #5 among QBs. I hate his ties as he ranked Mettenberger as the #40 player overall while Bridgewater was #42 so he clearly valued Mettenberger more but was ashamed to drop Bridgewater out of his Top 5. I think this will be one of the more one sided comparisons in future years as Mettenberger is a Chad Henne clone (good backup, below average starter) while Bridgewater could become an above average QB in that 10-16 range if you ranked all 32 starters.” That was my analysis last year of this comparison and I think I nailed it. Bridgewater had a solid season statistically that was even better with delved into in depth. I read some analysis that said Bridgewater’s final 8 games were Top 12 QB. This season the team is adding Mike Wallace and Adrian Peterson for him so I expect big things and again think this comparison will be extremely one sided in future years, especially if the Titans stay at #2 and take Marcus Mariota. Result: Big win for Jon.
  5. Allen Robinson vs. Davante Adams: Allen had 48 catches for 548 yards and 2 TDs which is solid for a rookie WR but is even more impressive when you realize he missed the final 6 games of the regular season due to an injury. He was a consistent #2 WR all year as he had 4 or more catches in all but his first regular season game (4 or more in the final 9 games) and 50 or more yards in 7 of the last 9 games. He also has already supplanted Marqise Lee from the starting lineup and just flat out looked like a better WR. Davante Adams on the other hand struggled to get on the field as he had 38 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs but did it over a 16 game stretch. Also considering Robinson had Bortles throwing him the ball and Adams had Rodgers throwing him the ball the comparison is even worse. One caveat though is Adams improved dramatically in the final few regular season games and the playoffs so maybe the light came on for him. Result: Small win for Jon.
  6. Marqise Lee vs. Odell Beckham: I don’t want to talk about it okay!? Alright this is going to look really bad every year. Beckham, even with a slow start due to injuries, was the best WR in the 2014 NFL Draft with 91 catches for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs and somehow ended up making the Pro Bowl despite missing ¼ of the season. I honestly think he’s the 2nd best WR in all of football already so I was flat out wrong. What makes this even worse is that Lee with 37 catches for 422 yards looking like an inferior WR to numerous players I ranked below him like Kelvin Benjamin, Beckham, Brandin Cooks, etc. Result: Usually I give1 point for a big win and 0.5 point for a small win. This is a historic win so it nets Mayock 1.5 points.
  7. Taylor Lewan vs. Greg Robinson: Everyone seemed to have Robinson as their #1 OL due to his immense potential but I always stood fast with Lewan at #1. I was rewarded with Lewan looking by far the best of the 3 “elite” OTs (Robinson and Jake Matthews) as Robinson actually played OG not OT for most of the year and Matthews struggled mightily at OT. Lewan came in after injuries but played in 11 games, starting 6, and is penciled in as the team’s long term LT. Result: Big win for Jon.
  8. Justin Gilbert vs. Darqueze Dennard: “Gilbert scares me as he has legit bust potential due to his inconsistent play,” is what I wrote about Gilbert. I stupidly left him as my #1 CB due to his elite upside but I saw the risks on him too. He did start 2 games and played in 14 but was widely panned by management and fellow teammates alike for his unprofessionalism and poor work ethic. The team hasn’t given up on him though and Gilbert struggled in various years at Oklahoma State to then bounce back with incredible seasons so all is not necessarily lost but it was a rough start for sure. Dennard wasn’t much better though with 0 starts and 14 games played. He actually struggled a lot as well but didn’t have management taking shots at him throughout the year so I still have to give it to Dennard over Gilbert. Result: Small win for Mayock more due to character and off the field issues than on field play which was poor from both players.
  9. Phillip Gaines vs. Stanley Jean-Baptiste: Gaines looked the part all year long as a future starting CB as he had 5 starts and played in 13 games for the Chiefs. Jean-Baptiste on the other hand only played in 4 games as a special teamer, recording 0 tackles on the season. This is one I’m especially proud of as I had Gaines #30 on my board while Mayock didn’t have him on his Top 100 while Jean-Baptiste was #175 on my board and #35 on Mayock’s. Gaines is expecting to compete for a starting job this year and will at worst be the #3 CB for the Chiefs so this should look good for years to come. This is a big win for Jon.
  10. Lache Seastrunk vs. Andre Williams: I lost this comparison obviously as Williams was a #2 RB for the Giants last year while Seastrunk didn’t make the club out of camp and bounced around practice squads all year. My contention though would be Williams still looked like a crappy RB, 3.3 ypc last year, and Seastrunk impressed me in the preseason with a 4.8 ypc average and noticeable explosion. It makes me wonder if Seastrunk had a bad attitude or poor work ethic as I saw no reason to give up on him after his preseason. Also with all of the RB injuries no one even bothered to pick him up? I think something behind the scenes ended Seastrunk’s career before it began. Either way this is a big win for Mayock.

Final Tally: It’s funny because every year people put out their boards and there are so many prospects that your eyes just glaze over. Picking 10 key comparisons really delves into who got it right, who got it wrong and sometimes gives patterns as to what someone needs to work on as a scout. For the 2014 RECAP Mayock had 5 wins and I had 3.5 wins so Mayock takes this year on the comparison but with Jadeveon Clowney, Allen Robinson, Taylor Lewan and Austin Seferian-Jenkins all injured for large portions of the year I feel very comfortable with this comparison. There is no hiding the fact that I missed on Odell Beckham’s greatness but other than that comparison I see nothing that will look too bad in future years. Yes Marcus Smith and Lache Seastrunk aren’t even playing right now but I have my doubts that Kony Ealy or Andre Williams will ever be starters so the comparisons won’t be too vicious. This will be a fun one to review going forward. What is also interesting is how after 2 seasons Mayock and I are very close. The 2013 RECAP I won 5 to 3.5 and the 2014 RECAP Mayock won 5 to 3.5 so combined it is equal. Mayock goes for more Combine measurables when scouting prospects and I lean a little heavier on production but as you can see from the results, there are positives and negatives with both approach.

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One Comment
  1. Peter permalink

    You are normally picking prospects drafted much later, so break-even is a win for you.

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