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Mike Mayock I want your job (2016 NFL Draft Board Comparison)

July 24, 2016

Mike Mayock

With last year’s comparison going so absurdly well for me (2015 recap) I thought about just calling it a career, also a crying newborn gave me a few sleepless nights worth of reasons too, but I decided to keep the tradition alive as it’s just too much fun. Below are 10 comparisons where my draft board (Top 150 players) differs distinctly from Mayock’s draft board (Top 100 players). These comparisons will be good to keep in mind with training camp starting for many teams tomorrow. Enjoy!

  1. Jared Goff vs. Carson Wentz: This comparison had to be done as these two QBs will be compared to each other their whole career. The Rams and I liked Goff (#3 on my board, #10 on Mayock’s) while the Eagles and Mayock liked Wentz (#9 on my board, #1 on Mayock’s). One reason I like comparing my board to Mayock’s is that he knows what he’s looking for and isn’t afraid to stick a flag in the sand for a guy, no matter the opinion of others. Going into the Senior Bowl, he was really talking up Wentz and argued he was a likely 1st rounder when no one else was. For him to end the draft with Wentz as his #1 Overall Prospect is a little surprising to me but I say bravo as more analysts should stick to their guns and make aggressive rankings instead of “averaging in” prospects after talking to 3-5 scouts. While I am giving Mayock respect, I do disagree with him as Wentz has all the upside in the world but has a lot of bust potential while Goff to me is a surefire Top 20 starter in the league. He has less upside due to his smaller frame and lack of running ability but he can thread the needle and should lead the Rams to the playoffs quite regularly while supported by Todd Gurley and that great Rams D-Line.
  2. Noah Spence vs. Kevin Dodd: This one is arguably my most favorite comparison as I had Spence as one of the most underrated players in this draft (10th on my board, 32nd on Mayock’s, ended up being taken 39th) while Dodd was one of the most overrated players to me (79th on my board, 30th on Mayock’s, ended up being taken 33rd). It’s rare when two players on extreme ends of the spectrum can be compared to each other like this, same position/Mayock disagrees with me/actual NFL draft agrees with Mayock, so I’m a happy camper on this one. I could see Spence being the defensive rookie of the year and Dodd is right up with Eli Apple and Jarran Reed as the highest drafted players I expect to bust. This one looks good long term for me.
  3. Mackensie Alexander vs. Eli Apple: I think Alexander (14th on my board, 48th on Mayock’s) is the real deal, though I worry about his long speed a little and his attitude a lot. Apple on the other hand (71st on my board, 22nd on Mayock’s) was the most overrated player in this draft. Maybe I underestimate size/speed in cornerbacks as his was elite but his film just never impressed me. He had poor instincts, showed no heart, made few plays in 2015, and his tape didn’t match his Combine numbers athletically. Then the Giants surprised everyone by taking Apple #10 Overall, even Mayock would have called that a reach, and now I am VERY interested in seeing how Apple works out. One positive is that with Rodgers-Cromartie and Janoris Jenkins already in tow he could be given the #3 WR most games. That’s one way to make a rookie look better than he is so if he struggles next year it’s a huge red flag as he couldn’t be in a better situation.
  4. Andrew Billings vs. Jarran Reed: I’m a big fan of Andrew Billings (#29 on my board, #44 on Mayock’s) and I think we both were surprised he lasted as long as he did on draft weekend (#122 in the 4th round). To me he is one of the best value picks in the draft and it’s no surprise that the Bengals took him as they have stealthily built one of the best 53 man rosters in the NFL due to their skills in drafting on Day 3. Reed on the other hand was one of the most overrated players in this draft in my opinion (140th on my board, 24th on Mayock’s). He went 49th Overall and was considered by many to also be a steal but obviously I disagree. My issue with Reed is that he has no pass rush skills and is nothing but a two down run stopper. In the NFL, as it is now, you can argue that a run stopping DT isn’t even a two down player but is now a one down player and I don’t consider him great value. Unfortunately the Seahawks might start him as a rookie, as defensive tackle was a need area for them, while Billings is likely the #4 DT on the Bengals in 2015 so this comparison appears a bit unfairly weighted toward Reed for next year. In the end though talent rises to the top so I expect Billings to eventually outproduce Reed.
  5. Connor Cook vs. Paxton Lynch: Cook to me was the #3 QB in this draft (19th on my board, 71st on Mayock’s) while Lynch was a distant #4 in my QB Rankings (38th on my board, 20th on Mayock’s). The NFL sided with Mayock on this one as Lynch went 26th Overall after not one but TWO teams tried to trade up for him, while Cook fell to the 100th Overall Pick. Lynch only has Mark Sanchez to beat out for the starting job while Cook has up and coming star Derek Carr. Nonetheless I have to make this comparison because I feel like Cook is an underrated prospect who has starting caliber talent. Most NFL teams don’t seem to agree with me and the road toward starting will be much tougher for Cook than Lynch but we will see how things shake out. Right now this one doesn’t look too favorable for me.
  6. Jonathan Williams vs. DeVontae Booker: To me this was a two running back draft as after Elliott and Henry there was a steep drop off in talent and everyone had a different opinion on who was the #3 guy. Many chose Booker as that guy so it isn’t surprising to find Mayock with a high ranking of him (#51). I ranked Booker 104th as I didn’t see him as a stud back like many did. My #3 back was Jonathan Williams (#77) as I thought he was unfairly punished for missing all of last season due to an injury. I’m unsure what Mayock thought of him but he didn’t make his Top 100 so he clearly liked him less than I did. This one could take a few years to settle out since both are expected to start the season as the #3 RB for their teams (Bills and Broncos respectively).
  7. Emmanuel Ogbah vs. Shaq Lawson: This one is a little confusing. Ogbah on my board is 15th and Lawson is 16th so to me they are the same value. On Mayock’s board, Ogbah is 29th and Lawson is 13th so he sees a noticeable difference between the two players. NFL teams agreed with Mayock with Lawson being drafted 19th and Ogbah 32nd. It isn’t a huge difference but my point is that Ogbah to me was one of the best players in this draft and somehow was still on the board in the 2nd round. He will be one of the steals of this draft at #32 and Mayock can’t say he agrees considering he ranked him 29th. This one is all about Ogbah becoming an 8-12 sack SDE in a 4-3 ala the kid he reminds me so much of, Ziggy Ansah.
  8. Kendall Fuller vs. Will Redmond: Kendall is a guy I had a 1st round grade on all of the 2014 season so when he got hurt in the 2015 season, and tried to play through an obvious injury which caused him to have some really bad tape, I forgave him as if it never had happened. That is why he was #18 on my board, higher than any analyst I could find. Mayock clearly disagreed with me on that grade as he had him #93 on his board. Redmond on the other hand was nothing special in my eyes (#117) and was ranked about a round lower than Mayock viewed him (#76). Honestly this one comes down more to Fuller than Redmond as Fuller needs to become an impact cornerback for me to not look stupid for giving him a 1st round grade. No one viewed him in that light so if he becomes the ball hawking slot corner I expect him to become, then it will be that much sweeter.
  9. Jack Allen vs. Evan Boehm: Usually I don’t make comparisons of guys this far down both our draft boards, simply because at some point in the draft the odds become good that NEITHER will pan out, but I really liked Allen’s tape the past two years at Michigan State and was shocked he wasn’t drafted. He was the #88 player on my board with a 3rd round grade yet didn’t make Mayock’s Top 100 and, again, wasn’t even drafted in the real thing. Boehm on the other hand was given a free agent grade by me but made Mayock’s Top 100 at #94. Also NFL teams agreed with Mayock as Boehm was drafted #128 in the 4th round and, again, Allen wasn’t drafted. Did I mention that Jack Allen wasn’t drafted? Keep in mind the kid was a four year starter, 2x 1st Team Big 10, 1st Team All-American in 2014, and 2nd Team All-American in 2015 (only beaten out by 1st rounder Ryan Kelly from Alabama). Kind of seems like he was worth taking a flier on at least in the late rounds but what do I know…we shall see. I bet Allen makes a roster and becomes a solid starting center at some point in his career.
  10. Jonathan Bullard vs. Sheldon Day: I’ve noticed that Mayock LOVES to overrate Notre Dame players so I usually make at least one Notre Dame comparison each year, as to me, it’s easy money. This year it’s Bullard from Florida (ranked #34 by me, #65 by Mayock) vs. Day from Notre Dame (ranked #111 by me, #61 by Mayock). Day looks like a future #3 or #4 rotation DT that will make a niche career for himself due to his hustle. That’s valuable, to an extent, but not 2nd round valuable which Mayock rates him at. Bullard on the other hand was one of the most underrated players in this draft as I see star potential with him if put in the right system. He’s a tweener 4-3 DE/DT and reminds me a bit of Malik Jackson coming out of Tennessee a few years back. Yes the 6 years for $90 million this offseason, Malik Jackson. Now THAT is the kind of player you give a 2nd round grade to. I like my odds on this one.

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One Comment
  1. peter permalink

    Thanks for not retiring prematurely. These all seem like great picks. I’ll regret saying this, but I think Wentz will be a bust.

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