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Mike Mayock I want your job (2013 Recap)

April 19, 2017

I’ve been doing this so long that I have my “Mike Mayock I want your job” draft comparisons leaving their 4 year rookie contracts. That’s an interesting phenomenon as how they fare in free agency can give a market comparison of how these players are valued. Yes there are some oddities like comparing a one year prove it deal vs. a long term deal (Joeckel vs. Fisher) or an undervalued 5th year option vs. a settling in as a bit player deal (Ogletree vs. Te’o) but overall it’s an interesting evaluation. As a libertarian I am quite the market defendant so I thought I’d give this evaluation tool a try. Oh and I beat Mayock so that’s nice too. Feel free to let me know in the comments what you think.

Jon’s Player 2nd contract (average) Mayock’s Player 2nd contract (average Winner
Luke Joeckel 1 yr $8.0 mil (8.0) Eric Fisher 4 yr $48 mil (12.0) Mayock added $4.0 mil more in value
Both have arguably been busts as Fisher got a fat contract but has struggled quite a lot (2nd worst OT in football his rookie year, outside the top 60 his 2nd season and only the 36th best OT his 3rd) while Joeckel hasn’t been healthy and the Jags gave up on him. Both have the potential to improve so they got bigger contracts than they probably should have.
Jarvis Jones 1 yr $2.25 mil (2.25) Dion Jordan 1 yr $0.64 mil (0.64) Jon added $1.61 mil more in value
Just like Joeckel/Fisher, both can be called busts as Jones has 6 career sacks with a career high of 2! Yet he beats out Dion Jordan who hasn’t suited up for the Dolphins since 2014. I’m shocked he got another contract, even one for the veteran minimum.
Alec Ogletree 1 yr $8.369 mil (8.369) Manti Te’o 2 yr $5.0 mil (2.5) Jon added $5.87 mil more in value
A little unfair as Ogletree is on his 5th year rookie contract otherwise he’d be breaking the bank with a +$40 mil deal. Still though he’s dramatically higher than Te’o on a yearly average as his all around game is far more valuable than Te’o’s 2 down linebacker role.
Jonathan Cooper 1 yr $2.0 mil (2.00) Chance Warmack 1 yr $1.51 (1.51) Jon added $0.49 mil more in value
I had to do a double take when I saw that Cooper won this one. Warmack was a 4 year starter, albeit a mediocre one, for the Titans while Cooper was a huge bust that couldn’t even get on the field for the Cardinals and Patriots. Yet Cooper did get one of my highest grades ever for an OG so I guess it’s not shocking that the Cowboys gave him a 1 year deal. A little confused who bid on him that made them go up to $2 mil though. Did they bid against themselves or were others still intrigued despite his VERY limited play?
Zach Ertz 5 yr $42.5 mil (8.5) Tyler Eifert 1 yr $4.782 (4.782) Jon added $3.718 more in value
Ertz has been a very good player and consistent while Eifert has been more inconsistent but had “higher highs.” In 2015 Eifert looked like one of the 3-5 best TE in football but never looked that way before or since (13 TDs in 2015, 7 the other 3 years COMBINED). This next season will be huge for Eifert and his pocketbook.
Matt Barkley 2 yr $4.0 mil (2.0) Geno Smith 1 yr $1.2 mil (1.2) Jon added $0.8 mil more in value
Both are arguably busts (sound familiar?). Geno started off strong and ended with a whimper (barely played the past two seasons) while Barkley started off terribly, was cut and then showed a little something with the Bears. I suspect he’s firmly in the “career backup club” but we will see. It wouldn’t blow my mind to see him push Brian Hoyer for the starting job.
Shamarko Thomas Free Agent (0.0) Kenny Vaccaro 1 yr $5.676 (5.676) Mayock added $5.676 mil more in value
This one hurts as Thomas was one of my favorite players in the draft and did absolutely nothing. Vaccaro started off strong as his rookie season still is his best year to date and has regressed noticeably. He was benched a time or two the past few years so it will be interesting to see how he is valued in 2018 free agency. He might have a great year and get a big contract or have another down one and get a minor deal.
Dee Milliner Out of NFL DJ Hayden 1 yr $3.75 (3.75) Mayock +1 win due to $4.0 mil more in value
Milliner’s career was destroyed by injuries as he rarely saw the field. Hayden had injuries too early on and never was anything special but is still in the league so he gets the easy win. Neither were worthy of Top 15 selections.
Damontre Moore 2 yr $1.65 mil (0.825) Bjoern Werner Out of NFL Jon added $0.825 more in value
Moore has shown some talent as a pass rusher and has earned a reputation as a knucklehead. The latter is why he is on his fourth team and the Cowboys were smart to get him on a two year deal as he has talent and they should be rewarded if he surprises with a productive season, which I think could easily happen. Werner has been out of football for well over a year now so he’s officially a gigantic bust.
Tyrann Mathieu 5 yr $62.5 mil (12.5) Jordan Poyer 4 yr $13 mil (3.25) Jon added $9.25 mil more in value
Honey Badger was one of my favorite players in the draft and I had a first round grade on him. He went in the 3rd round and became a steal for the Cardinals as he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL when healthy. That injury history is extensive though so it is worth monitoring but the Cardinals richly rewarded him nonetheless. Poyer is an interesting story as he went from draft bust with the Eagles to backup with the Browns to reliable starter.
Total 131.269 mil (44.44) 83.558 mil (35.31) Jon wins by adding $9.13 mil more in value

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  1. Reid permalink

    Very interesting. You could also consider looking at Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric.

    A large portion of a player’s positive value to a team often comes during their rookie contract, and the sum of a player’s AV over their first 4 years is one way to try to measure that. The 2nd contract is a great gauge of the value of a player heading into their 5th year. It often correlates with past performance, but it’s a look-forward stat. A player who explodes or gets hurt in year 4 might not get a 2nd contract that reflects the sum of their rookie contract value. The 2nd contract value does answer the question “Who is a better player 4 years from now?”, though. It’s partly a philosophical debate about how to measure draft picks.

    Just something to think about. Keep up the good work.

    • Thanks Reid. Glad to see you reading the blog still after all these years. Yeah I’ve not looked into that metric yet but have toyed with using profootballfocus ratings more. I agree that my ranking has a lot of flaws but it’s a start. Also it doesn’t take into account where they were drafted and how much a team actually paid. Comparing Jarvis Jones vs. Dion Jordan for instance doesn’t account that Jordan made $20.5 mil fully guaranteed while Jones got $8.7 mil due to being drafted 14 spots lower in the 1st round. Lots to think about but it was just a first swing at it. I’ll check out the AV metric as it sounds interesting.

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