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10 Things I think I think

April 27, 2017

The NFL draft is an hour away and with it is the crescendo of so much hard work, drama, rumors, etc. which makes this event so exciting. No one really knows how this will unfold but below I have 10 takes on how I think Thursday night will unfold.

  1. Myles Garrett goes #1: This isn’t too big of a reach as he’s clearly the best prospect and the Browns don’t have a star pass rusher, let alone two, so he fits a need. They also need a QB and Trubisky might not be there at #12 or even at #3 so there is a risk in passing on him but the analytics boys with the Browns will make the right call and take Garrett at #1 and figure out the QB situation in the next few hours.
  2. Mitch Trubisky is a Top 6 pick: I’ve heard a lot of people say that the QBs will fall on draft day and all the QBs will be available at pick #12. I doubt it. QBs notoriously rise on draft day to a level higher than their ranking on scouts boards AND Trubisky is being unfairly criticized. He reminds me of a combination of Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz yet seems superior to all of them as a prospect. Wentz just had a really good rookie year despite only 23 starts AND it was at a Division II level. Trubisky looked great in his 13 starts in a Top 5 conference and fits the profile of a very good NFL QB. He’ll be a Top 15 QB in 3 years. I guarantee it…unless he goes to the Browns where he’ll be a bust for sure.
  3. Titans trade down or go boring: Jon Robinson the GM of the Titans hit a home run last year in the draft moving down for a future 1st, then up for Jack Conklin who was an All-Pro as a rookie. He impressed me and seems to know what he wants his team to look like. At #5 I think they want to trade down but if they don’t get the right offer I suspect he goes blood and guts again this year and takes a boring DT in Jonathan Allen. Allen is a safe prospect who doesn’t wow you as an athlete but is a technician with those hands and looks like a 10 year pro already. I could see the Titans leave this draft with Allen at #5 and Forest Lamp at #18. It’d be such a boring draft and then when the Titans make the playoffs this year and have the hardest, toughest team in the league then everyone will be singing his praises.
  4. Gareon Conley isn’t drafted Thursday: He has a rape allegation that seems a little iffy (no arrest, no conviction, woman said no to group sex but yes to individual sex?) but raises a huge red flag on him character wise. Add in the fact that this CB class is so deep and has so many varying opinions on players at the top of the draft and there’s no reason for someone to roll the dice on Conley…so they won’t. He’s going to fall to the 2nd without even much drama I bet.
  5. Pass Rushers again become highly coveted: Every year the QBs and pass rushers come off the board quicker than people expect and I’m always surprised that others are um surprised. This draft has Garrett and then a huge drop off to the next group of pass rushers so it might be 8-10 picks after Garrett goes that the next one does but then the rush (pun intended) begins. Once the first team takes Haasan Reddick, Derek Barnett or Charles Harris the next two will go like lightning because there seems to be a noticeable drop off after these three (4 counting Garrett). Some like Jordan Willis, Takkarist McKinley  and Taco Charlton but these three have varying grades. Everyone seems to love Reddick, Barnett and Harris so teams seeking that obvious day 1 starting pass rusher will look to move up for these three. I’ve seen a lot of mocks with Charles Harris to the Cowboys but think he’ll be long gone by then.
  6. 49ers take a QB: I’ve read a lot about Kyle Shanahan’s system being extremely complex and detail oriented. I also know he didn’t do well with Johnny Manziel due to those issues but did do well with Kurt Cousins for those same reasons. This leads me to believe Shanahan is going to draft his QB in the 2nd or 3rd round and mental makeup will be as important as physical tools. Throw out Mahomes, Kizer and Dobbs as they don’t fit his profile and upgrade Davis Webb and Nathan Peterman. I think he takes one of those two guys in the 2nd round either at #34 or after a trade down from there or a trade up from #66. The 49ers are a wildcard as they have kept eerily quiet for such a young, inexperienced organization but I have to believe they see how little talent they have on their roster and try and trade down once or even multiple times. A trade down from #34 to the mid 2nd for Webb/Peterman seems logical.
  7. The Cowboys take a CB: I’d love to see Budda Baker or a trade down happen but I think Jerry is boring this year and stays at #28, rejects a few viable trade down offers to the early 2nd and takes a CB. My guess is it is Kevin King or Marlon Humphrey as the two things the Cowboys need at CB is size and ballhawk skills. At least getting one of those two prospects will address one of their issues.
  8. Cam Robinson is not the first OT off the board: He was a freshman All-American, 1st Team SEC the past two seasons and has been a well known prospect for awhile yet relative newcomers to the draft prospect ranks in Garrett Bolles and Ryan Ramczyk seem to be getting more love than Robinson. Cam is a mixture of Cordy Glenn, DJ Fluker and Keleche Osemele. Two of those three players ended up moving to OG so teams wanting an obvious LT, like the Broncos and Giants, will stray from Robinson who has a higher ceiling and go to the safer choices from Utah and Wisconsin.
  9. Packers take a RB: Call me crazy but the fact that they never even sniffed at perpetual thorn in their side Adrian Peterson when he hit free agency and currently have only Tim Montgomery and Christine Michael at RB makes me think they made a conscious decision (like the Cowboys did in regards to their secondary) to not address the position knowing they will draft one on Thursday or Friday. I think Thursday will find them with Alvin Kamara or even Dalvin Cook staring them in the face and they pull the trigger. Cook is the superior talent but Kamara is just a perfect fit for that offense so either could be special teaming up with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay
  10. Patrick Mahomes becomes a Cardinal: I wrote about this connection earlier in Mahomes draft bio as to me Mahomes is everything Bruce Arians wants in a QB as he’s mobile, tough and has ridiculous arm strength. I don’t know if Mahomes goes #13 to them, they trade down to take him later in the draft or they move up from the 2nd to get him in the late 1st but I think Arians wants Mahomes bad and will make a move.
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