2019 QB Rankings

1. Kyler Murray 5’10 ⅛ 207 Jr. He didn’t work out at the Combine, most likely because he put on a lot of bad weight to get to 207 lbs. He likely played in the 190 range and will immediately be the smallest QB in the NFL when he steps onto that field. He started at Texas A&M playing a bit as a change of pace QB in 2015 (686 60% 5/7 109 Rating), transferred to OU after a lot of drama with Kevin Sumlin and was a backup to Baker Mayfield in 2017 (359 86% 3/0 276 Rating) and a one year starter in 2018 winning the Heisman (4,361 69% 42/7 199 Rating). What’s amazing is he also ran for 1,002 yards in 2018 (7.15 avg, 12 TDs). He takes the reigns from Johnny Manziel as the quickest QB I’ve ever graded, is arguably the most elusive (Lamar Jackson still has that title but it’s close), and is in the running as the fastest (Mike Vick still #1 in my books) so he’s Top 2-3 in a lot of categories and projects as an elite runner. He was helped tremendously by having Lincoln Riley as his OC, Big 12 defenses as his regular opponent, my WR1 Marquise Brown as his top wideout, and his OL with four legit NFL prospects blocking for him. He had a lot of help but his tape is nonetheless good as he can really spin it and his arm strength is better than I gave him credit for when I casually watched him on Saturdays. He has good, albeit occasionally inconsistent, accuracy and he has the arm strength to throw deep with his feet set or on the run. Arguably my favorite part of him as a thrower though is that he really knows where to place the ball and must have watched Baker the past few years (one of the best I’ve ever graded) throw guys open. He had a tough 2018 Alabama game but scouting those throws you can see that he threw it low and away when defenders were blanketing his receivers and had some impressive throws that were exactly where he needed to toss it to avoid it being an INT. It also showed the issues with him though as Alabama beat him up and used a contain defense that took away a lot of his easy runs and wide open passes. They played him about as well as any college D played him all year and the offense still scored 34 points and he still threw for 300 yards and ran for 100 yards so pretty impressive for a “bad game.” It was his worst game though as it was the only game all year he had sub 150 Rating and only game he had less than 57% of his passes completed. That’s what I like about him as he has some serious red flags as a 5’10 200 lb QB but he has elite traits as a runner, just like Lamar Jackson had last year, and is so far advanced than Jackson or even Cam Newton was coming out of college. He already is great at the back shoulder throw and used it numerous times vs. Alabama. You didn’t see it a ton last year as he didn’t have to make those tougher throws so it was impressive to see him pull the trick out vs. Alabama when things got tough. I think people really underestimate how good his ball placement is and how he can anticipate defenders. He throws guys open better than any QB in this draft class. Add in his rare running ability and his underrated arm strength and I don’t see why he isn’t a legit franchise caliber QB prospect. As a runner he won’t be able to be used like Cam Newton in his prime where he gets a ton of carries and QB designed runs but he’ll probably be used like Russell Wilson where the scramble drill will be incorporated so often in the offense it will almost be like the 2nd option on every play, “okay that scheme didn’t work-scramble drill”. His quickness is rare, his vision as a runner is rare, his speed is rare (I’d say he’s a 4.3 athlete not 4.2 like Vick but obviously fast enough to be a special running threat), and he seems pretty tough despite his size. I actually worry more about his durability in the pocket than outside as the 270 lb DE blindsiding him in the pocket is where he is most likely to get injured. He’s just too quick for defenders to get a big hit on him in the open field. Overall I was very impressed with Murray’s tape as I learned he was a more polished passer than I initially thought. He has good accuracy, good arm strength, great ball placement, and great anticipation. Those last two items are what made me fully endorse him as I was shocked by how many times he was able to make a pinpoint throw vs. tight coverage. The fact he can do that as a pure passer, makes it silly that some people think he’s just a “dual threat” QB. If he was 6’2 and ran a 4.8 with his passing skills I’d still be very interested in him. A team should build an offense around his strengths and incorporate more rollouts, spread formations, and RPOs in their offense but he has the polish to step into an already established offense and not miss a beat. In the end Murray is a Top 5 talent as my #1 QB and surprises me by being every bit the prospect Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were last year. He’d settle in as #3 to them but is ahead of Jackson, Rosen, and Allen from last year and I have no qualms with him as the 1st Overall Pick if the Cardinals decide to go that way. 4/23/19
2. Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 6’3 ⅜ 231 Soph He ran a 5.04 40 (very bad) and ‘28 ½ vertical. His bad Combine didn’t surprise me as he looks very slow on film and isn’t just not a dual threat QB but will struggle avoiding rushers in the pocket. He redshirted in 2016, was a part time player in 2017 (565 70% 4/1 173 Rating), and then had a great year in 2018 (4,831 70% 50/8 174 Rating). His stats are pretty stunning as his 50 TDs didn’t just lead the nation (as did his 4,831 passing yards) but were the most TDs since Derek Carr in 2013, who also had 50. It was the most passing TDs any player has had in a season in 10 years. He plays faster than 5.04 40 as he has some quickness to him and uses his huge size well but he’s basically just a traditional pocket passer. He has decent accuracy but I wish it was better as he doesn’t have the pinpoint accuracy you want and his 70% completion percentage is a bit misleading. He had a good supporting cast and was given a very high usage rate as the Ohio State D surprisingly struggled. They gave up +20 points in 10 games and 39, 49, and 51 points last year. The fact they were 2-1 in those games shows why Haskins will be a high selection as he led a dominant offense. He has a strong arm and can make all the throws yet doesn’t have Drew Lock’s insane zip. My favorite attribute of Haskins is how good he is at surveying the field and reading defenses. He is one of the best I’ve ever graded in terms of that skill as he gets through his reads so quickly and constantly threw to his 3rd or 4th option, an even more rare trait considering he’s a Sophomore and a one year starter. It took me awhile to make the connection but he’s a more accurate, much more cerebral Dak Prescott. He threw his fair share of deep balls but he naturally plays the QB position very conservatively and focuses on the short and intermediate areas predominantly. He doesn’t have good touch or timing on his deep ball but makes up for it with great caution so he should always have a high TD/INT ratio. 54/9 as his career ratio is pretty insane as 4 to 1 is very good so 6 to 1 is impressive. Haskins is an easy evaluation but a tough grade as he projects as a high level bus driver who already appears to be superior to Dak Prescott in a lot of areas. He is elite at being careful with the ball, is elite at reading defenses and going through his reads, and is a big guy with a strong arm who has decent accuracy. He could start Day 1 for a franchise and be solid but he doesn’t have great velocity, accuracy, or the ability to throw a guy open and projects as a high end bus driver and not a franchise QB. As such he’s definitely worth a 1st round pick but I’d shy away from him as he isn’t the type of player that will win a championship for you unless he has a special supporting cast around him. He plays the game in a conservative, cautious way that will win a lot of regular season games but few playoffs games just like other bus driver QBs (Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Dak Prescott). He’s not my type of QB but I love his precociousness (dominated college as a redshirt Sophomore) and think his rare talent going through his progressions and reading defenses could sneak him out of the bus driver level to lower end franchise QB like Kirk Cousins did recently. Mid 1st as my #2 QB who projects as a high end bus driver QB and lacks the playmaking talents to move any higher up my board. 4/23/19
3. Will Grier West Virginia 6’2 ½ 217 Sr. He ran a 4.84 40 (average), ‘34 vertical (very good), 9’4 broad (average), and 4.28 shuttle (average). Grier has had a wild career as he started in 2015 at Florida as a true freshman (1,204 yds 66% 10/3 145 Rating) but was kicked out for a PED failed drug test. He then missed the 2016 season as he transferred to West Virginia and had two great years in the Dana Holgerson’s version of the Air Raid in 2017 (3,490 yds 64% 34/12 162 Rating) and 2018 (3,864 yds 67% 37/8 175 Rating). He’s now married with a family and will be 24 before his first game in the NFL so he’s an older prospect but also has gone through hell AND come out the other side so there’s something to like about knowing he won’t flinch at the first sight of trouble. I am an unabashed admirer of Grier and would love the Cowboys to take him as he plays the game I like my QBs to play with toughness, aggressiveness, and a spirit about him which is contagious to teammates and fans alike. He’s a mixture of Philip Rivers/Nick Foles/Ryan Fitzpatrick as he’s a gunslinger (Rivers/Fitzpatrick) who has great touch on his deep ball (Rivers/Foles) and is about as fiery of a competitor as you will see (example: 2018 Texas game). To me he throws the best deep ball in this draft class and a team being successful with him will need to be like the 2017-2018 Eagles with Foles as you lean on the running game and defense and then take shots deep. Take away his deep passing and I like the kids gumption but don’t see him translating as he is a mediocre at best QB on short and intermediate routes. On deep routes and touch passes (fades, back shoulder throws) he’s elite so a team will need to utilize his strengths as he doesn’t have a very common physical makeup. He lacks great zip on his throws which will hurt him throwing comeback routes. He has enough arm strength to make all the throws and has uncanny timing on deep throws but lacks the Rodgers/Mahomes flick of the wrist type arm talent which is all the rage right now. I also like his mobility as he has quick feet and knows how to elude rushers. He won’t be a dual threat in the NFL, wasn’t even one in college, but he can buy 2nd chances for his team. My favorite attribute of his running ability though is his willingness to not run as he has a rare calmness in the pocket which can’t be coached. He doesn’t get rattled by pressure and will sit in the pocket multiple seconds longer than other QBs who would just think they were being pressured and feel uneasy about it. I worry he could be benched down the road for his gunslinging mentality (reason one of his comps is Ryan Fitzpatrick) but if you watch the 2018 Iowa State game you can dislike him for other reasons (they lost 14-30) but you can’t dislike him for throwing it into double coverage. Regularly they dropped 7 or 8 into coverage and he showed rare patience yet never could get anyone open. I was actually impressed as they stayed in the game till the end due to him not making the boneheaded play to force the action. Yes it was a loss but it showed maturity. There are dozens of throws Grier made the past two years where he threw up what looked like a prayer but in those two years he had a 71/20 TD/INT ratio which is outstanding. In hindsight it really was a mature QB knowing he had 3 NFL caliber wideouts, throws a great deep ball, and was in a conference with bad defense so let her rip. I think he can be coached away from that extreme gunslinger mentality (see 2017 Vikings Case Keenum as a recent example) and I see a smart, mature QB so I think he’s coachable. Overall I think Grier has too many positives as an elite deep ball thrower, smart decision maker, natural leader, fiery competitor, and overall winning QB to pass on him just because he doesn’t have the strongest arm or has some inconsistencies accuracy wise in the short to intermediate range. I believe you can win with Grier as your bus driver QB who judiciously takes deep shots for big plays (see Nick Foles comparison) and think he’s a very underrated prospect in this draft. Mid 1st as my #3 QB who I am sticking by despite the rest of the scouting community leaving him out to dry. He might not start immediately but he’ll get his chance eventually and I expect him to be successful as a lower end starting QB who might surprise a bit due to his leadership, competitiveness, and elite deep ball which gives him a higher ceiling than most “bus driver” QBs. 4/17/19
4. Daniel Jones Duke 6’5 1/8 221 Jr. He ran a 4.81 40, ‘33 ½ vertical, 10’0 broad, and 4.41 shuttle with all but the shuttle being good to very good. He started as a true freshman in 2016 and was okay (2,836 63% 16/9 127 Rating), had a bad year in 2017 (2,691 57% 14/11 112 Rating), and his best year in 2018 but hardly great (2,674 61% 22/9 132 Rating). He’s a tall, statuesque QB with underrated athleticism who has just enough speed to make some nice scrambles when the defense isn’t paying attention (example: In the 2018 North Carolina game he did a zone read up the middle and made a safety miss, taking it 70 yards for the score barely outrunning a corner). His stats ranged from average to bad at Duke but a lot of people will defend him as he was outgunned most Saturdays and often times he had little to work with . He worked under famed QB guru David Cutcliffe (Peyton Manning’s mentor) and it shows as he’s a highly polished QB with good footwork and a nice throwing motion. He doesn’t have much zip on is ball but has very good touch and is adept at throwing the fade in the red zone. His touch is probably his best attribute as he can really throw a deep ball early and let his guy run under it, a skill which is tough to teach. He struggles getting the ball downfield so a team with him as the QB will accentuate the short passing game as he’s good at going through his reads and works well in a horizontal scheme with a variety of short to intermediate routes. Throw in the well timed touch deep ball, which he’s good at, and it can be a midlevel offense with him at the helm, especially if there is a quality running game supporting him. He’s been made fun of a lot lately by Twitter but he has some impressive moments and I can see why some teams like him. I’m not his biggest fan though as he’s very robotic in his movements, he doesn’t have good zip, he had poor stats most of his career (his 2017 numbers dramatically declining from his freshman year is a big red flag to me), and he projects as more of a great backup, below average starter. I see some Andy Dalton in him and that’s probably the argument to have as do you consider Andy Dalton on a rookie contract worth a 1st rounder? Some would say yes as he’d be cheap for 5 years. Others would say no as he’d be just a rental or puts you in the predicament of having to overpay for a below average starter. I lean toward the latter as to me you spend first rounders on foundation pieces not cheap rentals and I want no part of Jones on his 2nd contract as his upside is too limited. He was outplayed by his teammate Drew Lock at the Senior Bowl and his lack of arm strength was very noticeable at times that week in practice. Even that could be disputed though as he won MVP in the game so Jones is very much an eye of the beholder prospect as some will hate him, some will love him. He’s a tall, weak armed, cerebral QB who goes through his progressions quickly, has good accuracy, and great touch. I hate his lack of velocity, his mediocre tape against pressure, and his bad stats so he settles as an early 2nd round as my #4 QB who fits the mold of a cheap bus driver but doesn’t break the 1st round due to my lack of interest in re-signing him due to his lack of upside. 4/22/19
5. Drew Lock Missouri 6’4 228 Sr. He ran a 4.69 40 (very good), ‘31 vertical (average), 9’4 broad (average), and 4.12 3 cone (elite). He was flat out bad as a freshman in 2015 (1,332 49% 4/8 91 Rating), improved dramatically in 2016 (3,399 55% 23/10 133 Rating), continued his improvement in 2017 (3,964 58% 44/13 166 Rating), and was more efficient but threw much less in 2018 (3,498 63% 28/8 148 Rating). His steady improvement across the board his four years of college is very impressive and makes you wonder how high his ceiling is. Some compare him to Mahomes, and I see the comparison with the skinny frame and effortless arm strength, but I’ve always seen Jake Locker when I scouted Drew Lock. The strong arm, very good athleticism, toughness, and his squeaky clean persona all make it a good comparison. Also the inconsistent accuracy and the idea that he’ll develop into a complete QB cement my comp of the two. I can see how some scouts would fall in love with Lock as he has that rare combination of tall, athletic, and with great arm strength. It’s the same reason Rodgers and Mahomes are MVP candidates every year and Cutler got so many damn chances in the NFL. Lock has that effortless flick of the wrist which can allow him to dart a ball 30 yards regardless of where his feet are positioned at any moment. Yet he has some major red flags and it keeps me from fully embracing him as a prospect. His production was very uneven as South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky all shut him down last year (1 TD 5 INT in those 4 games combined, with him completing 50% or fewer of his passes in 3 of them!) while he had huge games vs. Tennessee Martin (76% 4/0), Wyoming (73% 4/0), and Memphis (79% 4/0). I don’t trust QBs who shit the bed when the competition level increases and that’s exactly what he did time and time again last year when he faced SEC level competition. Also he had a decent supporting cast with Emanuel Hall being one of my favorite WRs in this loaded draft class and one of multiple guys who could play on Sunday. Watching the 2018 Alabama game he got off to a terrible start with a bad throw on a back shoulder throw (his first throw!) for an INT which was returned to the 3 yard line (basically a pick six). It didn’t get any better as he threw three straight TERRIBLE passes for INCs, all of which were within 7 yards of the LOS. He improved from there but 0-4 for 0 yards and 1 INT with all four being bad to terrible throws. I just don’t trust this kid’s accuracy as he goes stretches where he can’t complete anything. He has Josh Allen type accuracy issues on short throws and to me it’s the #1 attribute you look for in a QB so I just can’t get too excited about him. Also I think he has major issues with pressure and doesn’t make quick reads. There is a lot of tape of him taking FOREVER in the pocket and he just doesn’t seem to have a good ability to see the field or anticipate throws. I see the height, athleticism, and arm strength so there will be a long line of teams looking to draft him as their #2, redshirt him a year (we can be just like the Chiefs!), and roll him out in 2020 but Mahomes never had these accuracy issues and few people coach QBs as well as Andy Reid so I doubt it works for Lock and whomever tries that plan out on him. In the end he’s a high upside guy who I don’t believe in as he has major accuracy issues, struggles with pressure, doesn’t seem to handle big games very well, and overall projects as a future bust in my eyes. If I was a GM he wouldn’t be on my board as I don’t trust him and think he’s going to be just a big tease his entire career. That being said, did you see that 50 yard throw he made on the move? Kidding. Late 2nd round as my #5 QB who has the height, athleticism, and arm strength that all bring visions of Rodgers/Mahomes but who lacks the accuracy or decision making to be a quality starter and I expect to be a bust. 4/22/19
6. Tyree Jackson Buffalo 6’7 249 Jr. He ran a 4.59 40 (elite), ‘34 ½ vertical (elite), 10’0 broad (above average), and 4.28 shuttle (average). He’s a confusing measurables guy as he’s 6’7 250 but runs a 4.59 40? That’s such great size/speed that TE honestly should be considered if QB doesn’t work out. He started as a true freshman in 2016 (1,772 53% 9/9 105 Rating), probably had his best year in 2017 (2,096 60% 12/3 148 Rating in only 9 games), and then a decent but down year in 2018 (3,131 55% 28/12 137 Rating). His completion % is very poor and his 49/24 TD/INT ratio might not seem bad but 2 to 1 isn’t good AND he played against very poor competition. He’s got a little Joe Flacco and a little Paxton Lynch to his game as he’s a tall guy with a cannon (Flacco) but also is a tall guy with confusing athleticism. It’s confusing because he’s a lumbering athlete who isn’t smooth at all but then runs a 4.59 40 and looks very fast straightline. That combination of height, arm strength, and speed also brings to mind Josh Allen. I didn’t know anything about him before the draft process but am very intrigued with him as a mid round guy as a project type. He’s extremely raw but the tools are there to develop as it’s rare to find a 6’7 guy with speed who has a cannon like he does. I could see Bruce Arians try to get him in the mid rounds to have a plan in 2020 if Jameis Winston doesn’t work out as he could be good in a deep ball offense. Watch his highlight reel and you might think he’s Cam Newton with how big he is and how many plays he makes with his legs. Delve in deeper and you realize he’s not really much of a runner (sub 200 yards rushing each of his last two years, Allen had+700 yards rushing in those two seasons combined for comparison) outside of the red zone where he is very effective (11 TDs the past two years). Jackson has poor accuracy, has a long windup (it seems like he’s trying to throw the ball as hard as he can on every rep), and has a long way to go before he’s NFL ready. I’m not a huge fan of size/speed guys like him anyway but getting one in the mid rounds is a very different scenario than taking Josh Allen in the Top 10. He’ll probably end up as a bust a la Logan Thomas, another guy with such good size/speed that he did eventually move to TE, but his ceiling is so high that he’s worth a shot, especially in a deep ball offense as that is probably what intrigues me the most with him. Late 3rd round as my #6 QB who is a long term project but has rare size/speed and arm strength with comps like a poor man’s Josh Allen or Logan Thomas being valid. If I was a GM he wouldn’t be on my draft board but I see the intrigue and at some point he’s worth rolling the dice on due to his rare traits, regardless of the fact that I think he’s a future bust. 4/22/19
7. Ryan Finley NC State 6’4 213 Sr. He ran a 4.73 40, ‘30 ½ vertical, 9’8 broad, and 4.20 shuttle all of which were average or slightly above average. He barely played as a true freshman in 2014 for Boise State (27 pass attempts), was a backup again in 2015 (485 66% 1/4 117 Rating), transferred to NC State and became a starter in 2016 (3,055 60% 18/8 135 Rating), had basically the same year in 2017 (3,518 65% 17/6 136 Rating), and his best year in 2018 (3,928 67% 25/11 148 Rating). He’s a tall, skinny player with good accuracy and nice touch on his passes who was a very good college QB with mediocre tools for an NFL starter. He’s on the starter/career backup bubble as he isn’t very athletic, doesn’t have a very strong arm, and was a good college QB but hardly spectacular. Add in the fact he transferred and there are a number of red flags arguing against him being a starter. I really like how accurate he is though and he seems to be a mature player who understands the game. He has an even keel about him which shows maturity and he probably would work well as a backup, Josh McCown type as he’d relish that role which many hard core competitors abhor. He had two NFL caliber receivers in Harmon and Meyer and was a good distributor for them. He has a little Kirk Cousins to him in style and the way he plays the game. If he had a stronger arm I’d be much more interested as it’s pretty weak velocity wise and puts him more as a career backup in my eyes than a guy I expect to ever start. I wasn’t very high on Cousins coming out either so sometimes these guys slowly develop and become legit starters but I think he’ll be a good #2 and more of the career backup than the developmental starter type #2. Mid 4th round as my #7 QB who I see as a career backup but who has great accuracy and maturity so he should be good in that role. 4/23/19
8. Jarrett Stidham Auburn 6’2 ⅜ 218 Jr. He ran a 4.81 40, ‘31 vertical 9’2 broad, and 4.33 shuttle. All are very mediocre measurables for a guy considered an elite size/speed QB. He began his career in 2015 at Baylor (1,265 yds 69% 12/2 198 Rating), sat out 2016 due to transferring, had a good opening year in 2017 at Auburn (3,158 yds 67% 18/6 151 Rating), and a disastrous 2018 (2,794 yds 61% 18/5 137 Rating). Stidham came into 2018 as the hot QB and had a 1st round grade on many boards. Not on mine as I’ve never been a fan of the tall, statuesque QB with great athleticism. He has poor accuracy, doesn’t read the field very well, and I’ve never seen him as a future NFL starter. He’s more athletic than his Combine measurables showed but he isn’t the rare physical specimen a Josh Allen was last year and I gave Allen a 2nd round grade due to the same weaknesses Stidham has. He can buy time with his feet, he has a very NFL caliber “live” arm, and at times he makes the wow play but he just isn’t very accurate and lacks the rare size/speed ratio of a Cam Newton or Josh Allen to possibly overcome it. Also I really disliked his decision making in 2017 when he had good numbers so obviously his numbers regressing across the board in 2018 made me even less interested in him as a prospect. I see bust with Stidham but know that he has his supporters in the scouting community so he likely goes in the 2nd or 3rd round despite my sheer disdain for him. Mid 5th round as my #8 QB who is a lower ceilinged size/speed ratio QB, a type I almost always dislike anyway. He is one of the more overrated players in this draft and I expect him to be a bust. If I was a GM he wouldn’t be on my draft board but am giving him a 5th round grade as he does have some obvious tools to work with as a project #2 type. 4/21/19
9. Clayton Thorson Northwestern 6’4 222 Sr. He didn’t work out at the Combine. He had a bad year as a true freshman in 2015 (1,522 51% 7/9 96 Rating), a much better 2016 (3,182 59% 22/9 126 Rating), a similar year in 2017 (2,844 60% 15/12 121 Rating), and his best year in 2018 (3,183 61% 17/15 121 Rating). He’s a tall QB with very robotic movements who has good accuracy and goes through his progressions well. He doesn’t have a very strong arm His 32/27 TD/INT ratio the past two years is really bad. One of the worst of any QB I’ve ever graded. He’s like Daniel Jones in that he didn’t have a very good supporting cast but his QB Rating sub 130 all four years of his career is also just bad. Also Jones made much better decisions with the ball while Thorson has a lot of bad film where he just tosses prayers up. He was on my list as some had Top 5 round grades on him but I don’t see it. He has mediocre arm strength, isn’t very athletic, is very robotic, had downright bad numbers in college (poor supporting cast noted but still), and looks like a career backup at best. He has some flashes of NFL throws and is good at going through progressions and running an offense but he’s a #3 QB in my eyes as I don’t even see enough talent to consider him a developmental type #2 with starter potential. Free Agent as my #9 QB who I see as a career backup and am surprised some view him as a mid round prospect. 4/22/19