2024 QB Rankings

1. Caleb Williams USC 6’1 ⅛ 214 Jr. He began his career in 2021 with Oklahoma eventually beating out Spencer Rattler for the job in the second half of the year (1,912 65% 9.1 YPA 21/4 TD/INT ratio, 170 QB Rating), transferred in 2022 to USC where he won the Heisman (4,537 67% 9.1 YPA 42/5 TD/INT ratio, 168 QB Rating), and then had a slightly down but still great year in 2023 (3,633 69% 9.4 YPA 30/5 TD/INT ratio, 170 QB Rating). He also had 21 rushing TDs the past two seasons at USC and is a bonafide dual threat. He was 12-0 when his team allowed less than 34 points. Daniel Jeremiah made this point and comped it to Patrick Mahomes final year at Tech when the defense was ranked 128th in the country. Caleb’s defense last year at USC was 121st and it felt like he tried to put on the Superman cape too often and got into some bad habits. That being said his INT rate at USC was 1.1% which is insanely low so I strongly disagree with people saying he’s reckless with the football. His two year TD/INT ratio was 72/10 (7.2 to 1 which is elite) so he takes care of the football. He also was incredibly efficient when kept clean as he only had 2 TWP last year without pressure (best in the class), 16 with pressure (worst in the class). When clean he had a 93.4 PFF passing grade (best in CFB), 22/1 TD/INT ratio, and a 10.0 YPA. Keep him clean and he’ll be a ruthlessly efficient superstar. When he is pressured, coach him up to accept an incomplete pass or punt as an acceptable outcome, something he’ll probably do himself once the stench of the USC defense is behind him, and he should go back to 2022 Caleb who was amazing against pressure as well. He’s the only player in college football history to have a +10.0 adjusted yards per attempt in every season. This is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and it’s amazing 100% of people aren’t sold on him. The doubters are limited but there should be none as his tape is special and there are a few who don’t see him as QB1. He has elite pocket awareness, elite elusiveness, put up spectacular numbers in college, has rare improvisational talents, and also is a very mature and calm presence in the pocket. That ability to dominate you by efficiently picking you apart like Tom Brady and then improvising and destroying you like a Josh Allen or Mahomes is what entices me the most about Caleb. It’s also interesting that the kid with rare talents and special production now has doubters and will come in with a chip on his shoulder. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a Top 5 QB as a rookie and immediately a Pro Bowler. Watch his calm when his pocket is holding up as it’s rare to find that trait in a dual threat. He’s going to be a very good rusher but not a Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton type. He’ll be more of a Russell Wilson type that runs predominantly on scrambles and ad hoc plays. He doesn’t actually appear that fast and I think people overrate his speed. It’s his elusiveness that is special and at 6’1 215 he’s pretty thick and breaks a lot of tackles. It’s also his vision that’s rare as he has the best pocket awareness that I’ve ever graded. I wrote about it earlier in the year on Twitter as I feel like it’s historic for a prospect. Unfortunately later in the year it got him in trouble but that’s not surprising when your defense is so bad and your OL isn’t very good. He tried to do to much but the potential he has as a scrambler is right up there with Josh Allen who I consider the best in the league at it. He also has the flick of the wrist arm strength which gives him the ability to throw it +50 yards while on the run. The Bears should always have deep speed in their supporting cast for Caleb, much like the Chiefs have done with Mahomes, so he can improvise with the deep ball as he has some Texas Tech vs. Baylor like film of him throwing bombs in stride on the run vs. pressure. These plays are incredibly rare to see so I have to comp him to Mahomes as a prospect 7 drafts ago. Caleb definitely grew up watching Mahomes as his style is very similar with some mannerisms, the spin move, the improve, and the flick of the wrist arm strength. Caleb is a better athlete, Mahomes has a better arm but the comparison is valid. His most fun film is ad libbing out of the pocket but he’s actually a very polished QB and reads defenses well, gets the ball out in rhythm, and runs an offense very efficiently. He clearly missed Jordan Addison last year and I am not terribly impressed with either of his WRs. Most of the big plays they made were ad libbed from him and he didn’t have a lot of easy throws. It’s telling that in his “down year” his QB Rating went up despite his supporting cast going down. That’s what franchise QBs do and is another reason why I consider him a true blue chip prospect. Overall Caleb is everything you want a modern QB to be except tall and humble. He has some immaturities a team will have to sort out and a PR coach would be helpful as he didn’t put his best foot forward this draft cycle. Yet on the field he’s almost spotless. He has elite pocket awareness, great accuracy, is good at reading defenses, is a clutch performer, his team appeared to love him, and he’s the rare player who can dominate both in the pocket and on scrambles. Caleb isn’t a prospect to nitpick or overthink. He’s the best QB prospect I’ve ever graded and Andrew Luck in 2012 is the only reasonable comp of the past 15 years. Top 5 as my #1 QB 4/3/24.
2. Drake Maye North Carolina 6’4 ⅜ 223 Jr. He measured ‘9 ⅛ hands which are very small, only JJ McCarthy had smaller hands in this class. He barely played in 2021 (10 attempts), had his best season in 2022 (4,321 66% 8.4 YPA 38/7 TD/INT ratio, 158 QB Rating), and then a slightly down but still good 2023 (3,608 63% 8.5 YPA 24/9 TD/INT ratio, 149 QB Rating). He also had over 1k rushing yards and 16 TDs the past two years as a runner so he’s more athletic than you’d expect for the tall pocket passer. On film Maye is a tall, athletic pocket passer with a cannon who throws the best ball of any QB in this class. He ends as QB2 for me but make no mistake HE IS THE BEST PASSER in this class. He also would be QB1 in almost any draft so he’s the Malik Nabers to MHJ/Caleb. Put on the highlight reel for 2 minutes and you’ll see at least 5 spectacular throws. He has a cannon, he is accurate, he is a gunslinger, he throws with anticipation, and he carried a bad team but still put up pretty good numbers. There has been constant criticism by the media on Maye, unsure if it’s more anti-Maye or pro-Daniels (Heisman)/pro-McCarthy (National Champion) but I can’t remember a less respected elite QB prospect. The closest is Mac Jones but he had questionable tools while Maye looks and plays just like Justin Herbert, my comp. I don’t get it as the film is great and the throws are 100% translatable to the NFL. No QB threw fewer screens than Maye and he was constantly attacking downfield. His aDOT was 7.6, best in class, and far higher than any other QB in the class except Daniels 7.3 (most were in the 5’s or 6’s, Nix was 3.6!). He was pressured on 347 of his 1,056 dropbacks (bad OL) the past two seasons yet threw for a 17/7 TD/INT ratio in those situations. It speaks to his ability to make plays under difficult circumstances and is what makes me fall in love with him. That also shows up when looking at his career “big time throws” rates as he was 8.1%, tops of all top QBs in the past two drafts (2nd was Stroud, 3rd Caleb, 4th Penix, 5th Bryce). The kid throws darts all over the field, has the ability to throw guys open, shows well against pressure, and has all of the tools you could ask for in a franchise QB. He ranks 1st the past two seasons in both big time throws and passing grade by PFF (91.5-an elite grade). Only Spencer Rattler had less help from his supporting cast than Maye did and it’s important to put his numbers into context as he had borderline elite numbers despite limited help.You could see this play out when Tez Walker joined the team as he wasn’t a superstar, I gave him a late 2nd round grade, and he had barely practiced with the team but he immediately was his top target and Maye made him very productive last year. I can only imagine his numbers if he had a true star WR like Caleb had with Addison last year, Penix with Rome, Daniels with Nabers/BHJ, etc. As a runner he has solid speed, looks 4.6ish, and has a little elusiveness to him but he isn’t anything special. It’s more that you’re surprised he’s anything as an athlete due to his frame and look but he does have a little juice to him so he’ll do the rare long scramble run but it won’t be a big part of his game. The footwork criticism of his is valid. He needs to clean it up and it affects his accuracy. He has a penchant for floating left in the pocket for no reason and often bails on a clean pocket due to seeing ghosts. He lacks Caleb’s rare stillness in the pocket where he’ll just sit for 7 seconds as he sees no pressure so he doesn’t move. Maye would never sit in a pocket for 7 seconds and gets antsy. He clearly missed Josh Downs last year and needed better weapons. His 2023 film was constantly him having to throw into tight windows and it’s impressive that his TD/INT ratio didn’t go down more (5.4 to 2.7) as guys just didn’t get open regularly for him. Put him on a team with a good OL and obvious threats in the passing game and Maye will be a star. It’s what makes him so enticing to the Vikings as Maye to Jefferson/Addison/Hock would be dynamic. This is one of the best pure throwers to come out of the draft in a very long time. Trevor Lawrence’s film never wowed me and Caleb’s elite grade is partially related to his running/improv skills so it’s reasonable to say this is the best pure passer to come out of college since Joe Burrow in 2020. He’s a guy that will carve you up all day if you can’t get to him with pressure and again he’s perfectly translatable to the current NFL. I don’t see the hang up on him. I think he’s closer to QB1 than he is QB3 as he has clearly better film than Caleb if going solely off pocket passing. He also is far superior at reading a defense, working the middle of the field, or throwing in tight windows than Daniels. Overall Maye is an easy grade as I loved his film, love his big frame and big arm, and think he projects as an immediate franchise QB who will have a similarly dominant rookie year to Justin Herbert when he came out. The comparison is extremely obvious with their frames, cannon arms, and ability to thread the needle. I also like Maye’s collegiate career more than Herbert’s and see him as a better leader, more vocal than the introspective Herbert. Ignore Chris Simm’s crap about him being QB6, this is the next superstar QB who will dice up secondaries immediately if he goes to the right team. Top 5 as my #2 QB who is the 3rd best QB to come out in the past 5 drafts only behind Caleb Williams and Joe Burrow 4/6/24.
3. Jayden Daniels LSU 6’4 210 Sr. He’s an older QB who will be 23 ½ years old on draft day. He began his career at Arizona State and was outstanding as a true freshman in 2019 (2,943 61% 8.7 YPA 17/2 TD/INT ratio, 149 QB Rating), he only played 4 games in the weird Covid year (701 58% 8.3 YPA 5/1 TD/INT ratio, 146 QB Rating), had a bad 2021 (2,380 65% 7.9 YPA 10/10 TD/INT ratio, 136 QB Rating), and then transferred to LSU where he was good in 2022 (2,913 69% 7.5 YPA 17/3 TD/INT ratio, 145 QB Rating), and great in his Heisman 2023 (3,812 72% 11.7 YPA 40/4 TD/INT ratio, 208 QB Rating). The numbers he put up in 2023 don’t get nearly enough credit as they should. His 10 to 1 TD/INT Ratio is historic as 7 to 1 is elite. His 208 QB Rating is the best I’ve ever graded (best in +15 years). Mac Jones at 203 was the previous best top QB prospect and it didn’t work out great but the other top ones were Burrow (201), Tua (199), Kyler (199), Baker (198), Zach Wilson (196). It’s a pretty impressive list and he’s on top. Also his 11.7 YPA is also the best I’ve ever graded (best in +15 years). Kyler (11.6), Baker (11.5), Hurts (11.3), RGIII (10.7), and Cam Newton (10.1) being another incredible list of superstars that he topped. I said this a few years ago with Mac Jones and it’s true again with Daniels, he just had the greatest college football season ever for a QB. Add in his 1,134 rushing yards and 10 TDs, none of which count towards his historic passing stats and he was an all-time great college QB. The worry though is that Nabers is also one of the best WR prospects to come out in years and BTJ is maybe the best #2 WR on a college team since Justin Jefferson so how much of his stats are just easy throws to these elite prospects? On film Daniels is a tall, extremely thin player who has that special flick of the wrist throwing action which produces elite velocity. He throws darts all over the field and can moon a ball 50 yards on the run. As a passer his two elite traits are his TD/INT ratio, he is outstanding at avoiding turnovers (79/10 career TD/INT ratio if removing his 2021 season), and his deep ball accuracy. He has outstanding touch and timing on his deep ball and he really unlocked Nabers/BHJ. Yes his supporting cast gave him quite a few easy shots but he usually hit them in stride anyway and he did it against good and bad defenses. His accuracy is very underrated both on intermediate and deep throws. He was best of the perceived top 7 QBs in accuracy on throws +15 yards downfield without pressure, ie are they accurate on intermediate/deep throws, at 86% well above everyone as most were in the mid 70s. He doesn’t show much ability to throw on anticipation and he didn’t do a lot of extensive reads on defense, most of his looks were schemed throws or one side of the field reads, but if you give him an open receiver he will be one of the best in this class at making an accurate throw. People think of him too much as a dual threat as he is a very good pocket passer and deserves more credit. Yet as a runner he’s special and it’s why people emphasize that aspect of his game as it could unlock a lot for him in the NFL. He has legit 4.4 speed and is one of the fastest QBs I’ve ever graded. RGIII is a good comp for his speed and he is definitely faster than Willis or LJax. He isn’t as elusive as those two though but has a unique quick step at the last second, almost like a matador working a charging bull, which barely makes him avoid tacklers. He does it at almost full speed and very quickly so it usually works but it’s a risky move and sometimes he gets obliterated by a defender. There are numerous clips of him being destroyed on a run as a defender saw the move coming and timed the cutback. With his very slim frame at 210 lbs and his penchant for big hits it worries me that he’ll be injury prone in the NFL but he hasn’t been in college. That is just one of multiple valid concerns with Daniels. His pressure to sack rate is 24.5% which is atrocious. The only recent QBs who were worse were Hendin Hooker, Sam Howell, and Will Levis. Hooker and Levis both had terrible pocket awareness and Howell held the ball too long and was the most sacked QB in the NFL in 2023. Also he almost exclusively threw to the outside and I think it is due to his struggles reading defenses and how messy it can get in the middle of the field. He threw to the middle of the field on intermediate throws only 9.3% of his throws. It’s the second lowest percentage of any QB drafted in the first round with Justin Fields being the only QB worse. Combine his thin frame, his advanced age, his poor pocket awareness, his likely inflated numbers due to his historic receiving corp, his limited ability to throw on anticipation, and his struggles to work the middle of the field and he’s a risky prospect who will probably always be a flawed NFL starter. Yet despite those risks I’m still in on Daniels as he’s a true dual threat and is one of the most accurate dual threats I’ve ever graded. People don’t give this kid enough credit how accurate he is and with his RPO potential and deep ball prowess I think it’ll be very easy to scheme around his deficiencies and produce a lethal offense. In a class with two superstar high end prospects, he isn’t going to be higher on my list than QB3 but I see a very high ceiling with Daniels and consider him comparable to Anthony Richardson last year. Richardson is a much bigger guy, came out much younger, had a special pocket awareness to him, and showed glimpses of being able to read a defense very well and throw on anticipation so they couldn’t be more different when reviewing the details of each prospect. Yet both have elite rushing potential to go along with a flawed passing profile that I think you can work around. Daniels actually is the superior passer and will give a team no pause for concern over accuracy issues like Richardson did. Both will need a smart OC to scheme around their flaws but both do certain things incredibly well as a passer which should be easily taken advantage of due to their rare talents as rushing threats. I see Daniels being a very exciting starting QB in the NFL. He will have spectacular games but also very poor games as throws won’t be so easy in the NFL so he’ll be inconsistent but the ceiling is very high for him and Top 10 QB could definitely happen. It’s rare to find a guy with his height, his rushing ability, his TD/INT ratio, and his overall accuracy. I think he’ll be schemed around very easily and be a high end starter who I compare to a mix of RGIII (elite speed, great deep ball, thin frame) and DeShaun Watson (flick of the wrist thrower, good at avoiding turnovers, accurate). Top 5 as my #3 QB who I would rank as the 4th best QB in the past two drafts behind Caleb, Maye, and AR-15 4/6/24.
4. JJ McCarthy Michigan 6’2 ½ 219 Jr. He was a part time player in 2021 but had decent numbers (516 58% 8.7 YPA 5/2 TD/INT ratio, 152 QB Rating), was the full time starter in 2022 leading his team to the semi-finals (2,719 65% 8.4 YPA 22/5 TD/INT ratio, 155 QB Rating), and had his best year in 2023 leading his team to the national championship (2,991 72% 9.0 YAC 22/7 TD/INT ratio, 167 QB Rating). McCarthy is a good example of how the perception of a player changes while I stay the same but it makes it seem like my opinion on the player has changed. He’s been a mid 1st in my eyes since late 2022 as I’ve always been impressed with his accuracy, his mechanics, his ability to read a defense, and his underrated athleticism. To me he’s a rich man’s Jimmy Garoppolo with inconsistently great accuracy, mediocre arm strength, and a guy who has the rare ability to read a defense and thread a needle despite arguably mediocre tools. Last year when everyone was hating McCarthy and saying he wasn’t a first rounder, I was a defender as he was a mid 1st to me. Now there are rumors he could be QB2 and is a surefire Top 5 pick and now I look like a critic. I haven’t changed as to me he’s a high end bus driving QB who maybe sneaks into the next tier due to very good athleticism and talents as a thrower when a play breaks down.He’s the antithesis of Penix and is incredibly accurate on the move. His 71.4% accuracy on the move was tops in the class. He also is a great athlete with speed, quickness, and great spatial awareness which makes him very difficult to sack. If you’re making the argument he’s a top end QB prospect then it’s his athleticism and ability to throw on the run as those are unique for a bus driving QB and makes me wonder if I’m underrating him. What I see though is a guy with mediocre arm strength who was a peak performer and as highly polished of a QB prospect as you will find due to Jim Harbaugh coaching him up. He looks like a highly polished, low ceiling player who has already learned the QB position. He looks left to draw a safety away before throwing right, he has the best footwork and mechanics of any QB in this class, and teams rave about him “on the board” with how he understands an offensive system and how to attack defenses. The more complicated the offense the better chance McCarthy will be a star as his tools are somewhat mediocre but his mind is top notch. His experience is also something to highlight as he won a national championship in 2023 and barely didn’t make it to the title game in 2022, despite the local draw I considered Michigan unlucky to lose to TCU in the quarterfinals and saw the TCU blowout by Georgia to not be terribly surprising. McCarthy is a natural leader who took a high profile program with very limited “big game” success before he came and made them a clutch performer. His 28-1 career record is astounding and shouldn’t be dismissed. Teams want to draft winners and he’s a winner. Yet the success was a large part due to Corum’s dominance as a runner, the defense being top notch, and him having a very underrated receiver in Roman Wilson to target on often advantageous game situations due to their rushing and defensive success. When he threw it though he was very efficient. 72% completion is an amazing number. 44/12 TD/INT ratio the past two years is solid but not great. Last season among QBs with at least 40 deep ball attempts he ranked 2nd in completion % and adjusted completion %. That stat stood out to me as I did not consider him a great deep ball thrower. I see him in the vein of Garoppolo as a QB who will target the intermediate routes predominantly and be very good in the middle of the field as his ability to read a defense is better than his velocity on his throws. I still consider this to be the case but if I’m wrong on McCarthy and he ends up as a Top 2 QB from this draft it will be because Harbaugh limited his volume and I underestimated his arm strength and deep ball talents. He’s a rhythm passer who is always on time and throws a good ball on short and intermediate routes. His lack of velocity will limit his outside route throws and I don’t see him being a high end deep ball thrower despite the analytics saying otherwise. Garoppolo as a passer and Alex Smith as a runner is a great comp for McCarthy. The fact that both players have been successful game managers makes me think McCarthy will be in that vein but will be a long time starter so I think he’s overrated but I do think he’ll be successful. Mid 1st as my #4 QB 4/6/24.
5. Bo Nix Oregon 6’2 ¼ 214 Sr. He measured ‘10 ⅛ hands (big). He started an NCAA record 62 games and is by far the most experienced QB in this class. Nix is an older kid, he’ll be 24 on draft day, who began at Auburn and was an inconsistent but solid QB. He flashed as a true freshman in 2019 (2,542 yards 58% 6.7 YPA 16/6 TD/INT ratio, 125 QB Rating) and then had similar year in 2020 (2,415 yards 60% 6.8 YPA 12/7 TD/INT ratio, 124 QB Rating) and 2021 (2.294 yards 61% 7.1 YPA 11/3 TD/INT ratio, 130 QB Rating). The fact those 3 seasons are so similar shows his lack of development as he didn’t really grow beyond his freshman year. Auburn and him parted ways and he went to Oregon where he was put in better situations and had great stats in 2022 (3,593 yards 72% 8.8 YPA 29/7 TD/INT ratio, 166 QB Rating) and 2023 (4,508 yards 77% 9.6 YPA 45/3 TD/INT ratio, 188 QB Rating). He was almost the 2023 Heisman trophy winner but if you look at the film it’s easy to argue he wasn’t anything special. My comp for him has been Blake Bortles for quite awhile as he has an NFL frame, is mobile, and has flashes of greatness but his inconsistency and inability to attack downfield makes him a career backup at best. Some of his stats are special (45/3 TD/INT Ratio! 9.6 YPA, 77% completion percentage, 12-2 last year as a starter in a Power 5 program) and I keep hearing his name buzzed as QB5 and a surprise pick in round one. One deep analytic metric that has been popular is this: his pressure to sack rate is 11.8%, 4th best of any recent QB prospect (1st-3rd best are Penix, AR-15, Mac Jones). Combine that and his TD/INT ratio and you have two elite metrics but then you put on the film and you realize it’s all a mirage. Oregon made his life ridiculously easy and had him do a quick game most of his two years there. They had two speedsters on the outside, a stud running back, and let him dink and dunk constantly to set up predetermined shots downfield. His accuracy is inconsistent and varies from average to very bad. His ability to read a defense is hard to gauge as he was always in spread formations with a lot of routes but if you watch him closely it looks usually like he’s reading one defender or two passing options and almost always went to his first read. Oregon had a very QB friendly plan and regularly they’d spread a team out, run fast upfield, and he’d dump it off quickly for a nice gain. It was an effective offense but isn’t translatable to the pros. If he’s successful it will be as a dink and dunker comparable to Kenny Pickett. Pickett went in the first round and I see a better athlete than Pickett so QB5 in the first could be real but I think that’d be a bad decision as guys that can’t threaten a defense in the intermediate and deep areas almost never succeed in the NFL. So many of his throws were to guys schemed wide open and were within 5 yards of the LOS. I can’t remember a guy with more gimmes than Nix and I think he’s going to struggle mightily as a rookie. The two things I love about Nix though are his improvisational skills and his lack of mistakes. He is dynamic maneuvering around in the pocket and making ad lib plays. Most of his elite pressure to sack metric was Oregon giving him countless short yardage dump off throws he could take at the first sign of pressure but some of it was his talent to move around in the pocket. Add in his ridiculous 45/3 TD/INT ratio, regardless of the easy throws that still is impressive, and it gives me some hope he can develop into a low end starter. Pickett/Bortles are both good comps as guys with good athleticism who lack accuracy, the ability to thread the needle, or threaten a defense in the intermediate or deep areas of a field. I see the same with Nix so if a team drafts him they have to expect him to be a dink and dunk game managing QB and should give him rollouts and move the pocket for him to accentuate his mobility. I’m not a fan of these types and expect Nix to be a bust so I would take him off my draft board as GM but for this ranking I’d give him an early 3rd round grade as my #7 QB 3/21/24. Update: I moved him up from early 3rd to early 2nd and from QB7 to QB5 after seeing some of his elite accuracy numbers. I still don’t like how dink and dunk he is but I stated he lacked accuracy and the stats say that couldn’t be further from the truth. I knew about his 77% accuracy but that was inflated due to his insanely low ADOT (4th lowest in the country). Yet if you look at his QBR in the pocket (93.1, best in class) or throwing under pressure (82.1, 1st in FBS) he looks amazing. I still dislike some of his tape but I’ve realized I was wrong on him as far as accuracy and he now looks to me like he’ll be a low end starting QB in the bus driver/system QB mold. He keeps everything in rhythm and is on time and accurate with his throws. He also has a sneaky good ability to ad lib so there’s maybe more to him than just being a system QB. The system is so QB friendly it’s a tough evaluation but after seeing some stats on his accuracy, which showed me that I was clearly wrong on my initial take, I went back to the film and he actually reminded me a little of Dak. He doesn’t anticipate, he doesn’t have a cannon, and he isn’t a true dual threat but he makes the right reads and makes an accurate throw to open receivers on a very consistent basis. He’s the antithesis of Penix as he doesn’t thread the needle or make the WOW throws but he will consistently make a good throw if the scheme can get a guy open. I want more out of my QBs than that but I think he’ll be a starter in the NFL and be decent so I had to change my grade on him. Early 2nd as my #5 QB 4/24/24.
6. Spencer Rattler South Carolina 6’0 ¼ 211 Sr. He began his career at OU where he barely played in 2019 (11 attempts), had his best year as a collegiate in 2020 (3,031 68% 9.6 YPA 28/7 TD/INT ratio, 173 QB Rating), he then lost his starting job to Caleb Williams in 2021 (1,483 75% 7.9 YPA 11/5 TD/INT ratio, 155 QB Rating), transferred to South Carolina and had two solid years in 2022 (3,012 66% 7.6 YPA 18/12 TD/INT Ratio, 139 QB Rating), and 2023 (3,186 69% 8.0 YPA 19/8 TD/INT ratio, 148 QB Rating). Spencer has been on my radar since his OU days and I’ve always liked his play but not necessarily his personality. His style of play is similar to Baker, Sam Howell, Minshew, and others in that vein and I have always been a fan of this type. My actual comp is Case Keenum though as I see him being more similar in style and frame to Keenum than the thicker typers like Baker/Howell. Rattler has had an early to late 2nd round grade on my board for a couple years now and it hasn’t really changed. I suspect he goes in the third but at that spot he’d make roughly 5-6 mil over 4 years (Malik Willis in the mid 3rd was 4 years 5.1 mil) and I think you can win with a QB like Rattler or Howell making $1 mil a year while you make a dominant roster around him so maybe teams will start taking these types a little earlier. On film Rattler is a short guy with decent weight and a very strong arm. I think his rushing is overrated but he’ll run a little and had 16 career rushing TDs. His best season ironically was his first full season at OU in 2021 and he never again had as good of a QB Rating or TD/INT ratio. He’s a step below Howell as a prospect as he isn’t as good of a decision maker and his 37/20 TD/INT ratio the past two years is bad. That’s even more worrisome as Howell was benched partially due to his decision making (sacks taken probably more so than INTs) and Rattler is probably a high end backup due to his propensity for INTs. A decent comp might be Nick Mullens due to his reckless nature but gunslinger mentality. His TD/INT ratio is bad but his INT totals aren’t bad so I think it’s more that he didn’t have a ton of TDs. His supporting cast wasn’t very good and they were 77th in scoring offense last year. Yes the QB deserves some blame for that but watching the film he was accurate and made the right reads. I didn’t see a lot of meat left on the bone and think his stats are being held against him unfairly. He’s also tough as nails and the play vs. North Carolina where he stood tall in the pocket and threw a strike despite getting obliterated by a rusher speaks volumes. On film he has a strong arm, gets through his reads quickly, is accurate, is tough, and has some underrated athleticism. I think it’s telling that a Lincoln Riley schemed offense gave him good numbers and he could be a better pro than collegiate. Watching his 2023 Florida film, his best game statistically, it’s easy to see how he might be drafted in the third and be a starter in a year or two for an NFL team. Poor man’s Baker Mayfield isn’t going to make you think Super Bowl but at $1 mil a year on a rookie deal I think it’s enticing. Overall I like Rattler more than most and have for a while. He ends as my best QB outside the Top 4 studs as I liked his film much more than Nix and his tools much more than Penix. If I was looking for a QB outside the first round I would target Rattler or Bean as they both intrigue me. He’ll turn 24 as a rookie so he’s another older QB prospect but there’s a lot less projection on him than Bean and far more consistency than Penix so he ends with the higher grade. Late 2nd as my #5 QB who is enticing as a low end starter with a gunslinger mentality a la Howell, Minshew, Fitzpatrick, and my official comp which is Case Keenum 4/3/24. Update: No change in Rattler’s grade but he drops from QB5 to QB6 as I moved Nix above him.
7. Jason Bean Kansas 6’3 205 Sr. He’s a very old prospect who will turn 25 years old before training camp starts. He began at North Texas and barely played in 2018-2019. He had a decent showing in the odd 2020 season (1,131 yards 55% 7.8 YPA 14/5 TD/INT ratio, 145 QB Rating) and then transferred to Kansas where he was terrible in 2021 (1,252 yards 56% 6.9 YPA 6/6 QB/INT Ratio, 118 QB Rating) but then turned it around in 2022 (1,280 yards 64% 9.4 YPA 14/4 TD/INT ratio, 171 QB Rating) and was great in 2023 (2,130 yards 62% 10.7 YPA 18/7 TD/INT ratio, 175 QB Rating). His YPA is an elite stat as only Jayden Daniels (11.7) was better than his 10.7. That’s the 2nd best YPA in the past 3 seasons of college football. The YPA is one of many metrics that put him in elite company and got him on my radar. Most don’t have him as a guy going in the first 4-5 rounds but he’s moving up due to spreadsheet teams seeing him as a diamond in the rough. He was 2nd best in career “big time throws” in the past two draft classes only behind Drake Maye and ahead of Stroud (3rd) and Caleb Williams (4th). He also was rarely sacked and was right next to Brock Purdy on the top right quadrant for sacks. His deeper analytics are outstanding so what’s he like on tape? He’s a good framed QB with outstanding speed who has some impressive running ability. He’s very elusive and looks to have 4.4-4.5 speed (he wasn’t invited to the Combine). I’d comp his running ability to a Ryan Tannehill level threat as he’ll be able to run regularly but won’t be a dual threat. He throws a very catchable ball. Has an NFL arm but not a cannon and is pretty accurate. He’s tough to grade as Kansas didn’t have him throw a ton, he only had 2 games last year of 300 or more yards, and he threw regularly to open wide receivers. It also doesn’t help that he was absolutely stomped by Texas and Oklahoma, the two highest rated teams he played last year, with a sub 50% completion and 1 TD/2 INT ratio. Yet that’s what makes him intriguing as this looks very similar to the film and style of play and reasons why Brock Purdy was drafted so late but became a success. Bean went to a shit program at Kansas and they were solid with him at QB (9-2 in 2023 in the games he started, ignoring the Tech game he was hurt early in). He’s 25 years old, has a below average arm, and doesn’t have a ton of passing volume on his resume so I’m not predicting Brock Purdy 2.0 but my comp is Gardner Minshew as that mobile player with good accuracy who is smart and will be a quality backup. He has great pocket awareness, is very calm under pressure, he reads defenses very quickly, and he has solid accuracy. I also love his rushing ability as he’s both elusive and very fast. In the pocket Gardner is a good comp, as a runner Stetson Bennett is a good comp. Bennett flamed out due to alcoholism but he looked promising in Rams camp/preseason. He has a much stronger arm and better passing film than Bean but Bean has a better frame and would be able to run a little more. Neither looked like dual threats but both could run 3-5 times a game to keep a defense honest plus scrambles. His elusiveness in the open field was surprising. He shakes people and is very tough to bring down. Add in his elite metrics in many passing categories and I see a high end backup here and someone I’d consider starting to see if he could catch lightning like Minshew did a few times early in his career. If he was 2 years younger and had a stronger arm I’d be interested in him as a late 1st/early 2nd, his tape is that good. Early 3rd round as my #6 QB who is my sleeper in this QB class due to great film and outstanding analytics 3/21/24. Update: No change in Bean’s grade but he drops from QB6 to QB7 as I moved Nix above him.
8. Michael Penix Jr. Washington 6’2 ¼ 216 Sr. He’s had a very long college career which began in 2018 at Indiana where he barely played. He made the field in 2019 and was very efficient (1,394 69% 8.7 YPA 10/4 TD/INT ratio, 158 QB Rating), regressed a bit in 2020 (1,645 56% 7.5 YPA 14/4 TD/INT ratio, 137 QB Rating), only played in 5 games in 2021 and was atrocious (939 54% 5.8 YPA 4/7 TD/INT ratio, 102 QB Rating), and then transferred to Washington. In 2022 he resurrected his career with a great year (4,641 65% 8.4 YPA 31/8 TD/INT ratio, 151 QB Rating), and then his best year in 2023 (4,903 65% 8.8 YPA 36/11 TD/INT ratio, 157 QB Rating). He measured ‘10 ½ hands (huge, especially for his smaller stature). On film Michael is a shorter QB with poor speed and questionable arm strength who lacks great tools but makes up for it with accuracy, an ability to read a defense, and some outstanding throws which show a rare talent for threading a needle vs. coverage. The easy comp is Tua as short lefties with mediocre tools but it’s a reasonable one. Lefty Nick Foles is another reasonable comp as his good touch and ability to throw a dime on one play but with too much inconsistency for me to be a huge fan of. His pressure to sack rate is 6.5%, best of any recent QB prospect (2nd best being AR-15 who was special at 9.9% roughly 50% greater than Penix rare score). His pocket awareness is outstanding and it’s one of a few things that keep me from being completely out on him. He was amazing in the Texas BCS playoff game making a ton of incredible throws in tight windows. He arguably has the best touch of any QB in this class and will be most successful if he’s given jump ball artists like a Mike Evans type. He and Rome were an incredible connection and it’ll be important that he has a bigger wideout on the outside that he can loft balls up to as he’s outstanding at that play and most QBs surprisingly aren’t. His 2023 Michigan game (BCS Championship) was atrocious (53% 1/2 TD/INT ratio, 5.0 YPA! 94 QB Rating!). I think it popped a lot of bubbles with scouts who were trying to overlook his poor tools. He led the nation in passing yards but was only 20th in QB Rating so he was sometimes more volume than efficient. Add in his inconsistency, despite historic volume (he had 2 of the 5 most pass attempt seasons of the past 6 years!), and it makes me worried that he’ll be even more erratic if put in a game manager role. He turns 24 as a rookie so he’s one of the two old QB prospects (Daniels). He also has torn his ACL, dislocated his SC joint, and he’s the weakest armed QB in the class. He also was the worst of the 7 QBs in accuracy on throws +15 yards downfile without pressure, ie are they accurate on intermediate or deep throws, at 69%. That’s not surprising as he was inconsistent in his accuracy and amazing throws mixed with bad misses were interchangeable on film and happened consecutively. His 2023 Utah game is a good example as he had some terrible misses but also had some wow throws and it’s hard to say whether it was a good or bad game. I’d lean bad but 328 yards 2/0 TD/INT ratio and a win by scoring 35 points vs. a good D isn’t too bad. He also is by far the worst in this class at throwing spirals and he often threw wobblers. Peyton Manning famously did that too so it isn’t necessarily a sign of being a bust but it worries me. He ran a surprisingly good 40 (4.55) at his pro day but it doesn’t translate at all to the field and he’s very slow. He has great pocket awareness but he has zero rushing ability and is painfully slow outside the pocket. He looks 4.9ish so I have no idea where that 40 came from. Also he’s odd in that he’s great against the rush in avoiding sacks but terrible at throwing vs. pressure or on the run. Get him off his initial spot and he usually looks bad. Penix is a tough evaluation as there are some special throws with him and his stats the past two seasons were very solid at Washington. I ended up fading him because his tools are very poor (weak arm, no rushing threat, somewhat short, older prospect), his resume is a huge red flag (he was basically benched at Indiana) and his film was extremely inconsistent. He regularly missed wide open guys and it confused me as he would then throw a bullet between two defenders that wowed me. It happened over and over again and it’s hard to rationalize. In the end though, a smaller guy with a weak arm and no mobility is going to need to be more consistent and more accurate down the field to be a long term starter. I see Penix as a short term starter who has his moments but ends up losing the job a la Sam Howell last year with the Commanders. Once that happens his tool set will probably keep him as a career backup and I think he’ll shine in this role. If you’re selling me on Penix as a starter it’s that he has great pocket awareness, can thread the needle vs. a defense, is very experienced, is great at reading a defense, and an NFL coach can maybe tone down his inconsistencies with better footwork. To me though, he’s a poor man’s Tua and that scares me. He isn’t mobile, he struggles against pressure, and he has a weak arm so to me the playbook is blitz the hell out of him and make him throw dimes over the top with touch. He can do it but not consistently and it’s not a winning formula. His tool set limits a team tremendously as he doesn’t have the arm strength to make comebacks and curl throws on the outside. He also throws a good deep ball timing wise but would have to throw it early in a route like the Dolphins do with Tua under McDaniels which limits the deep passing game. Overall Penix had a great college career but doesn’t project as a starter. I like him as a career backup who will get a chance to start at some point but probably won’t succeed. I actually preferred Penix tape to Nix but Nix profiles to have a much better chance to be a low end starter so I gave Penix a poor grade due to expecting him to be a career backup. Late 3rd as my #8 QB 4/3/24.
9. Joe Milton Tennessee 6’5 ¼ 235 Sr. He measured ‘10 ¼ hands (very big), had a ‘35 vertical (elite), and 10’1 broad (elite). Milton is a 24 year old prospect who should be even older but came in as a freshman somewhat young. He’s been around since 2018 but barely played from 2018-2020 at Michigan In 2021 he transferred to Tennessee and was a backup to Hendon Hooker in 2021 (375 yards 52% 6.0 ypa 2/0 TD/INT ratio, 113 QB Rating) and 2022 (971 yards 65% 11.8 ypa 10/0 TD/INT ratio, 204 QB Rating). In 2023 he finally got his chance and was inconsistent with okay numbers (2,813 yards 65% 7.9 ypa 20/5 TD/INT ratio, 147 QB Rating). Milton is a massive framed Cam Newton look alike with elite arm strength. He has poor man’s Anthony Richardson vibes with his frame and film but the longer you look at him the less he seems like a viable QB prospect. I’m disappointed he didn’t run a 40 as I suspect it would have been a good time AND I see him more as a TE prospect than a QB prospect. As a QB he has a cannon, an elite size/speed ratio, has nice touch on his deep ball, is good at protecting the ball (30/5 TD/INT ratio the past two seasons), and has improved each year. I left him with the QBs as he’ll be drafted as one but my comp is Logan Thomas as a gigantic framed QB with a cannon who won’t succeed as a QB. Thomas moved to TE after 3 unsuccessful years as a QB. The problem is Milton is already 24 so giving him 3 years to realize he’s not a QB will make me less interested in him as a TE convert since he’ll be nearing 30 by then. At Tennessee it was noticeable that the program downgraded at QB when Hendon Hooker’s 28/2 TD/INT ratio was replaced by Milton’s 20/5. The offense went from best (46.1 points/game) in the country to 35th (31.8 points/game). Their star OC Josh Heupel left, but Joey Halzle, the QB coach the prior two years, took over and kept the same offense. It gave Joe plenty of open targets and was a very simplified offense which saw him throw to his first read constantly. His accuracy is below average, his footwork is inconsistent, and his ability to read a defense is impossible to measure at this point due to their offense. His elite arm strength makes outside throws and an offense based around 9 routes, posts, and comebacks to be his best bet for success. He also has good speed and a frame that would allow him to run but he lacks any elusiveness and too often barreled directly into defenders which is something he can’t continue to do in the NFL. He often lost the strike zone mid game and went from somewhat accurate to erratic based on the drive. You can see this in the 2023 Alabama game where he lost his accuracy late in the 1st and was way off on every throw on one drive and then regained it later. You can’t have that inconsistency in the NFL and is why I don’t think he’ll make it even as a backup. Some of his tape is actually pretty solid so a team like the Eagles or Colts might draft him as their 3rd QB since he fits their starter’s dual threat style. Career backup is a possibility but I think he’ll end up being a bust and moving to TE. The most damning critique of him is that Tennessee seemed to scheme every play for him and eliminate all decision making for him beforehand. His runs were almost always designed runs, not scrambles off passing plays, and his passes were almost always to the first read. I think he will struggle mightily in the NFL as a rookie and might be an immediate bust like Matt Corral was a few years ago for the Panthers. Late 5th round as my #9 QB who I expect to be a bust at QB and move to TE. I’d only draft him as a TE but still give him a draftable grade due to his elite size/speed ratio and cannon arm so career backup like a Marcus Mariota could be a possibility 3/17/24.