2019 NFL Draft Class Review, Cowboys options, 10 Things I Think I Think, and My Guys

2019 NFL Draft Class Review: My Big Board is complete with 190 names on it. Overall it looks to be a very good draft class. I have four players with elite grades (Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, and Josh Allen). Sweat is my outlier as some love him, some think he’s only okay. His size/speed ratio is elite and combined with his arm length, motor, strength, and good production in the SEC I predict poor man’s JJ Watt with him so I’m a tad surprised he isn’t getting more love. I’ve learned over the years that my “1st round criteria” is less stringent than others and it’s no different this year as I have 33 1st round grades. I see some scouts with 10 or 15 1st round grades each year and just laugh. They don’t really understand what 1st round grade means if you only give it to 20 guys or less EVERY YEAR. It’s become almost fashionable to be extra selective on who gets a 1st round grade but I digress….it’s just a silly practice I see permeating the draft scouting industry. This year I think the top end of the draft class is good but not great yet the depth in this class is special. I think there are a lot of really good players to be had in the mid to late 2nd this year. I’m talking Pro Bowl players that will come out of the mid 2nd without me blinking an eye. After that it plateaus a bit from the late 2nd through the early 4th and then craters into undrafted free agent territory. I’d say there are 100-120 players I really like in this class. I use to be less skeptical of the mid round guys but as I get older and more experienced I’ve learned that most of the guys in Rounds 5-7 won’t be worth shit. That’s why I scout 150 players plus extras (this year I had 40 extras) as it ends up making me miss very few players while reducing the still substantial workload. Below is my ranking of the positions in this draft:

1. EDGE
2. TE
3. DT
4. WR
5. S
6. OT
7. QB
8. CB
9. C
10. LB
11. RB
12. OG

 

I am an unabashed lover of this EDGE class with 3 of my 4 highest grades (4 also of my top 5) going to EDGE prospects. Sweat and Burns are two guys I love that are polarizing so they are my two predictions for “steal of the 1st round” as one likely drops tonight. Also the TE class is historic as I gave three 1st round grades. Some disagree with me on Jace Sternberger, see below, but I think he’s going to be a really good player for someone. DT is some people’s #1 position for this year and I can see why as Williams/Oliver/Simmons/Tillery all have star potential. I’m a little lower on Williams, very iffy on Oliver, and a bit lower on the two Clemson DTs compared to others rankings so it dropped to the 3rd best position group but it still is a great group. On the other end of the spectrum was LB with basically three studs (White, Bush, Wilson) and not much else, RB with no stars in the class at all but some good depth in the 3-4 round area, and OG which is possibly the worst OG class I’ve ever graded. That will result in some reaches and is possibly why a guy like Chris Lindstrom or Josh Jacobs is being mocked as a late 1st rounder despite the tape telling me otherwise. Finally there is the S class which had only one Top 20 player (Nasir Adderley) for me but two 1st round grades (Thornhill the other) and four 2nd round grades. The class really falls off after that, key statement for Cowboys fans, so it’ll be important to get your starter at safety in the 1st or 2nd otherwise you’re probably out of luck. I have 8 starter caliber safeties (like Marvell Tell much more than the consensus) and most boards have 7-8 so on Day 2 it will be interesting to see them get taken one after the other and to see who is still available at #58. For more on Cowboys draft day specifics, see below.

Cowboys Draft Options: The Cowboys are becoming notorious for their disregard of draft day subterfuge as they openly talk about who they like, who they don’t like, and the media seems to have an unnatural ability to know what their draft day plan is weeks before the day itself. It’s infuriating to me as a fan as it can and someday will result in a team jumping them for “their” guy but so far it hasn’t happened (possibly happened last year at #50 when the Eagles moved up to #49 for Dallas Goedert but Dallas insists their guy the entire time was Connor Williams which is somewhat believable so who knows). Last year everyone knew Leighton Vander Esch was their guy and he still “fell” to them at #19. Two years ago everyone expected a pass rusher in the 1st round followed by numerous DBs in the 2nd-onward yet they were still able to come away with quality talent in Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Xavier Woods-I’ll ignore the draft mistake of Taco Charlton for the moment. Three years ago everyone knew Ezekiel Elliott was their guy unless Jared Goff dropped yet that also ended up working out. My point is that they don’t really try and hide their intentions so…they seem to be ready to draft one of the top safeties (Johnathan Abram, Taylor Rapp, Juan Thornhill, Darnell Savage, Deonte Thompson) if one of them drops but will pivot to DL if those guys don’t. What’s interesting though is that I think I listed them even in the Cowboys preferred order as there is a lot of buzz on Abram and Rapp and much less on Savage or Thompson. My guy is Juan Thornhill. He is the #2 safety on my board, Nasir Adderley is #1 but is now projecting as more of a late 1st, Thornhill very well could be there at #58, and he is exactly what this defense needs to take it to the next level. He’s my “dream pick” at #58 but below I’ve listed additional guys that are likely options, what I think of them, and how they’d fit this team.

• Juan Thornhill, see above, he’s a late 1st rounder on my board and he’s the ball hawk safety this defense needs on the back end. Byron Jones and Chido both are good players but neither are ever going to be high INT guys so they need two playmaking safeties on the back end to make up for those weaknesses. A duo of Xavier Woods and Thornhill would give great versatility to the safety group and would increase the INT total immediately. This D is bordering on greatness. Adding turnover machines is the next step to making it great and Thornhill projects as such.
• Johnathan Abram, he’s a late 2nd rounder on my board and I’m not as high on him as some are. He’s a one dimensional box safety who isn’t a great fit to me for this D. That being said, he’d be an upgrade over Jeff Heath and fits the Kam Chancellor role in this Seattle 1 high system Kris Richard is continuing to implement. As such I think he’s actually their #1 safety so let’s hope he is taken before pick #58, or that the Cowboys are smarter than Jon if he does become the pick.
• Taylor Rapp, an early 2nd rounder on my board, he’s one of my favorite players in this draft. Going into the Combine he was projected as a late 1st but ran a poor 40 and now there are rumors he drops to the 3rd round.I love Rapp and he immediately becomes my queued up “dream pick” if Thornhill is selected before #58. He doesn’t have great athleticism for a safety but he has the size and strength to actually play nickel linebacker so he’s an interesting guy and has the playmaking ability I want in my DBs.
• Darnell Savage, a mid 2nd rounder on my board, Savage is a good fit for this defense. He has a high upside but is pretty raw so he probably will be worse as a rookie than the three safeties listed above but has Pro Bowl potential if he can put it all together. I’m intrigued but he’s my #4 safety behind Thornhill, Rapp, and Thompson both in terms of grade on my board AND fit for the Cowboys D.
• Deonte Thompson, early 2nd rounder on my board, he for some reason has not been mentioned as much as the four safeties above but I think he’s a good fit for their D. He’s another playmaker on the back end, like Thornhill, and is what the Cowboys need so I’d like him at #58. I’d love Thornhill, would really like Rapp, but would be quite fine with Thompson. That’s my order with Savage then Abram bringing up the rear. Abram would by no means be a disaster by the way, it just isn’t my preferred safety as he’d be another DB with limited ball skills. Below are my disaster picks. 🙂
• Zach Allen, late 3rd rounder on my board, I’m obviously strongly hoping he is not the pick at #58. I get why they like him as he’s a tweener DT/DE like Tyrone Crawford who might be playing his last year for the Cowboys. That being said he isn’t twitchy and won’t be a dominant pass rusher at either spot. I love his run stopping ability but he’s a guy I’d say was a solid (hardly great) pick in the late 3rd round so if he goes in the late 2nd I’d characterize it as a disaster.
• Jaylon Ferguson, early 4th rounder on my board, he has a lower grade than Allen but I might be more comfortable with him at #58 as some scouts view him as a 1st rounder. I obviously do not but every scout views players differently so at least I’d feel comfortable knowing some scouts really love this guy. No one has a 1st round grade on Zach Allen, some do on Ferguson and the pass rush productivity is there with Jaylon. I see him being too tight and slow to be in the pros what he was in college but, again, some disagree with me so it’s a possibility he’s the pick and I’m just wrong (see Vander Esch last year).
• Jace Sternberger, he’s a mid 1st on my board, I’m out on a limb with him being ranked ahead of TJ Hockenson but give this 2-3 years and then @ me okay? I know what I’m doing and that is me taking the slightly taller, better route runner, better red zone target (especially on jump balls) and guy who has smooth athleticism and much better production in 2018 over the better blocker who is beloved by the scouting community. Years ago I was the only one saying Zach Ertz was better than Tyler Eifert. Years later I am unequivocally right and Ertz is the comp for Sternberger so I might just be 2 for 2. In regards to the Cowboys, I think they really like Jace but probably as a 3rd rounder not a 2nd rounder.

 

10 Things I Think I Think for the 2019 NFL Draft

1. I get the vibe the Cowboys are very fluid with their 2nd and 3rd round picks. Without a first I could see them move up into the 2nd a bit to make sure they get that one impact player for next year as they look to be legit contenders this season. Also I could see them move back out of #58 if all the safeties are gone and try and get a 4th while getting Allen or Ferguson 5-10 picks later. Same in the 3rd as I could see them package their 4th and 3rd to move up into the early to mid 3rd so they get two impact players. I don’t see them moving back off #90 by the way.
2. My dream scenario is Juan Thornhill at #58 and Jace Sternberger at #90. I’d be quite excited to move up into the middle 3rd for Jace, or Dawson Knox to a lesser degree, if they were available.
   1. The Cowboys have two fourth rounders (128 & 136) so they have the fodder to move up, especially in the 3rd round which is dramatically cheaper than moving up in the 2nd.
3. I’m buying the rumor that the Redskins love Dwayne Haskins and are trying to move up into the Top 5 for him.
   1. Snyder and Haskins knew each other long before the draft process began, he’s a DC kid, and they clicked on the pre-draft visit. Haskins is a very likable guy and Snyder has dealt with fallings out from both RGIII AND Kirk Cousins the past half decade so I could totally see Snyder saying “this is my guy. I want to draft a franchise QB who sells tickets for me AND I get along with. Go get him, direct order!”
4. I’m buying the rumor that the Giants love Daniel Jones and he’s legitimately in play for the 6th Overall Selection.
   1. If he falls past #6 though I’ll be curious where he goes as the Dolphins, Broncos, and a few others teams are in the QB market but who knows what they think of Jones who I have a 2nd round grade on as do many others.
5. I’m selling the rumor that the Redskins are moving up into the Top 5 for Daniel Jones to skip the Giants. I think that’s just the Redskins tweaking the Giants plus a little subterfuge to hide their true intentions on Haskins.
6. I think Daniel Jones will both be a bad selection as a Top 15 selection but also won’t be the disaster he’s being made out to be. My comp on him is Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton for 5 years at cheap salaries is hardly a disaster. It also is hardly a “great” choice.
7. I’m buying the rumor that Jon Gruden loves Kyler Murray and that he would trade Derek Carr. I think Gruden is just waiting for a reasonable offer for Carr and he’s out. Ironically enough he loved him on ESPN’s QB camp but seems to have changed his tune after coaching him. Carr is a glorified bus driver. He throws a beautiful ball and had a ½ season stretch where he played like an MVP, but for his other 4 ½ years he’s been basically an above average starting QB in the bus driver mold. He’s possibly a Top 20 QB, definitely not a Top 15, and I have my doubts if he’ll EVER be a Top 10 QB so I’d roll the dice on Murray too if I were Gruden. Murray has star potential, Carr going into his 6th season clearly does not. Getting 5 first rounders in the next two drafts is important so you have the fodder to move up for “your guys.” If the #1 Overall Pick is really available, go get your guy Gruden! Seriously doesn’t it excite you with the idea of the 2020 Raiders IN VEGAS BABY with Chucky on the sidelines high fiving Kyler Murray and Antonio Brown after a TD drive? It does to me. They immediately become a fun, interesting, competitive team. Also they’re in the AFC West. How do you compete against Patrick Mahomes for the next 10 years? Kyler Murray, if he pans out, is probably the best way to do that. (Yeah I heard you in the back say Khalil Mack, very funny.)
8. Rashan Gary, Cody Ford, Daniel Jones, Chris Lindstrom, and DeAndre Baker are all guys who will go in the Top 40 selections who I do not like. Gary is a late 2nd but has massive bust potential, and is likely a Top 10 selection! Ford is a 4th rounder who I don’t see how he could possibly stay at OT like some believe. Maybe he is a good OG but even there he looks slow. I’ve consistently had differing opinions on OG vs. the consensus but usually come out pretty good. (Quenton Nelson last year was a miss by me but Joshua Garnett/Laken Tomlinson/Chance Warmack are all recent first rounders I had much lower grades on which I was proved right in the end) We shall see what happens in regards to Ford 3 years from now but I just don’t see 1st round tape. Daniel Jones is a bus driver, not sure why he’s getting Top 10 love. Chris Lindstrom tested out of the gym Combine wise but I didn’t love his tape, surprised he’s a late 1st all of a sudden. Finally DeAndre Baker looks like a low ceiling zone corner. Yes I know he allowed 0 TDs the past two years but he sure seemed like a scheme guy not a great all around athlete. Those are my biggest “discrepancy guys” and are ones I’m excited to keep tabs on in the future.
9. Daniel Jones recent buzz has downplayed the guy who I think is the most interesting evaluation tonight, Drew Lock. There is some film of his that makes me go “holy shit that was a Patrick Mahomes level throw. He has that rare “flick of the wrist” laser ball which only a few players have (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Jay Cutler). It’s a special trait but dear God people did you watch the 1st quarter of the 2018 Alabama game? He was so embarrassingly bad I don’t really know how you can get past that. You look at his numbers and he definitely fits the bill of a great QB against bad defenses and a flat out bad QB against good defenses. Not interested. I gave him a late 2nd round grade but if I was a GM I’d take most QBs off my board who I don’t love as you only can carry three guys a year and it takes a lot of work to develop them so you shouldn’t be constantly shuffling them in and out aka you take one, you usually keep them all four years of their rookie contract. That being said Lock is not my type of QB as I want toughness, I want leadership, I want accuracy, and Lock is none of those things. Will Grier on the other hand….
10. The multiple pick teams will be fun to watch tonight. I can’t remember the last time there were fewer teams picking in the 1st round as the Raiders have three picks, the Seahawks have two picks, the Packers have two picks, and the Giants have two picks. One of those teams is sure to do something wild like package them for a move up we aren’t expecting or trade them both to others to get like 6-7 2nd round picks (Seahawks might just do that if there isn’t a pass rusher available they like). Multiple 1st rounders gives teams options so I’m excited to see how that all shakes out.

My Guys

Every year I post a ranked list of +150 players that I scouted yet it becomes too long and too difficult to discern just who I love/hate at times so below are guys I love who I’d pound the table on draft day. Obviously putting all my top ranked players is no fun so these are the guys I really believe in at their draft value or, more likely, guys I am much higher on than the consensus.

Expected 1st rounders

• Kyler Murray QB
• Montez Sweat EDGE
• Brian Burns EDGE
• Greedy Williams CB
• Nasir Adderley S
• Jeffrey Simmons DT

Expected 2nd rounders

• Marquise Brown WR
• Hakeem Butler WR
• Juan Thornhill S
• Taylor Rapp S
• Sean Bunting CB

Expected 3rd rounders

• Jace Sternberger TE
• Will Grier QB
• Jachai Polite EDGE

Remainder

• Emanuel Hall WR
• Andy Isabella WR
• Caleb Wilson TE
• Bobby Okereke LB
• Gary Jennings Jr. WR
• Max Sharping OT
• Dru Samia OG
• Diontae Johnson WR

I hope you enjoyed my pre-draft analysis the past few months. Tune in tonight, Friday, and Saturday for live blogging of the draft itself. -Jon