2023 NFL Draft Review

This article is long overdue but I was running into a lack of motivation on writing it. It’s easy to see why as I was very disappointed in the Cowboys draft and am frankly shocked at how they addressed certain areas of need. Yet first off let’s get to a quick overview of teams that I think actually did draft well. Most place a Top 5 teams list but to me there were clearly 4 teams that stood out and I had trouble adding a fifth so I’ll just leave it at 4 as these were clearly a tier ahead of everyone else in my eyes.

Eagles-The Eagles had a well publicized “great draft”. The media jumped all over them selecting three Bulldogs this year, to team with quite a few already on their roster, and made them the winner of Day 1. I don’t completely disagree with that argument as I LOVED their first pick Jalen Carter and think he could be a Top 5 defensive player in the league someday. Yet I do think the media overrates Bulldogs and goes off “chalk” picks like Carter/Nolan Smith who everyone knew. I graded Nolan Smith a couple tiers below Drew Sanders and Sanders went in the mid 3rd so you can argue it was a far better selection than Smith in the late 1st yet few in the media even knew who Sanders was so Smith would be fantasized as the steal and Sanders would be ignored entirely by most outlets. That kind of thing happens every year as the media gushes on the powerhouse players (Stroud, Young, Jaxon, Carter, Smith) but quite often these players underwhelm. Did Jordan Davis do anything really last year? Yet he was a great pick. Did Nakobe Dean do anything for the Eagles? Yet he was one of the steals of the draft. On my board Davis was a bad pick and Dean was always a 3rd round type LB so the media had both wrong and their rookie years went exactly how I would have expected. I just point that out as the Eagles have become a fashionable pick as best drafting team yet they actually have a pretty mediocre track record over the past 5 years. Jalen Reagor, Andre Dillard, and Derek Barnett are first rounders in that span and all are huge busts. Cam Jurgens, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Sidney Jones are second rounders in that span and all are also huge busts. I distinctly remember hearing how great Dillard and Barnett were and that Jones was one of the steals of the draft so it’s important to remember that first impressions aren’t always the right impressions. That being said, the Eagles draft in 2023 was great and I think it deserves the praise it received. I think Nolan is a bit overrated and I think Kelee Ringo will be a flat out bust, definitely not a steal it’s being made out to be, but Jalen Carter is a great roll of the dice at 9th Overall. They began with that pick and ended in the 7th round with an absolute steal in DT Moro Ojomo so they bookended their draft with outstanding picks and filled in the middle with solid value. I specifically loved Sydney Brown the S in the 3rd as I had a late 1st/early 2nd round tier grade on him and it was both great value and one of the few need areas for the Eagles. The Eagles were the #1 seed in the NFC, went to the Super Bowl, and appear to have improved their roster (Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, DeAndre Swift, Rachaad Penny). It’s a scary team right now and this draft class just added to their amazing depth.

Colts: Their draft class will forever be tied to how Anthony Richardson works out as they swung for the fences at 4th Overall and I think it’ll prove to be the right move as he’s not just a physical freak but shows glimpses of being a highly polished pocket passer which I think was not seen by the majority of draft evaluators this cycle. Let’s understand that I think Richardson is going to be the 2nd greatest rushing QB of all time, ahead of Vick and behind only Lamar Jackson. That’s the floor with him as he’s going to put immense pressure on a defense with his legs and a creative RPO scheme will have defenses shaking their heads. Yet what really wowed me was how natural Richardson was as a passer in certain highly important areas of the QB position. His ability to “feel” the rush, move around in the pocket, and buy additional time was 2nd best in this class only behind Bryce Young. One of the big flaws I saw with Stroud was his lack of feel for the rush and I think he could have very bad discrepancies between pressure/no pressure stats. Richardson is built like a tank so he can throw off rushers but his innate feel for them and how to step around them is special. Also his ability to read coverages shocked me with how developed it was. He clearly had a better understanding of coverages and how to read a defense than Levis or Hooker. Add in his elite arm strength and elite release, both of which were 2nd best in the class behind only Levis, and you have a number of very high end attributes solely based on him as a pocket passer. He had some bad film in 2023 but he also had a ton of great film and I was surprised how many people had already written off the 20 year old. I see him as a superstar and it’s why I graded him as the best prospect in this entire draft. Yet the Colts had a great draft after the Richardson pick and I liked or loved every pick of theirs until the late 5th when guys I hadn’t evaluated were going off the board. Julius Brents in the mid 2nd was great value. I mentioned on draft day that a guy with his size, length, and physicality would often “rise” into the 1st round on many other years yet this CB class was so deep everyone knew they could get good guys in the 2nd so there was no CB run in the 1st. Brents at 44 was a great get at a high value position like cornerback. Josh Downs in the 3rd was a solid pick. Some loved him, some hated him, and I was in the middle as he is so damn polished and quick and effortless in his routes and how he plucks the ball that I loved his film but come on he’s a shrimp and easily could be a bust solely based on size. In the 3rd it made a ton of sense and fits perfectly next to those two huge wideouts on the outside (Pittman, Pierce) who play a completely different game than Downs. Also one of my steals of the entire draft was the Colts selection at 110 of Adetomiwa Adebawore. He’s a DE/DT tweener that I like a lot more than Luka Van Ness who went at pick #13. He’s a better athlete than Van Ness and had better production so it’s not like I was too far out on a limb on that analysis but somehow he dropped and I think the Colts got a difference maker. Richardson has the highest upside of any player in this draft and Adebawore has the potential to be the biggest steal of the entire draft so the Colts did a lot of things well.

Browns: The Browns didn’t have a first or second round pick so they won’t make a lot of “top draft teams” this year but I still consider their draft to be special as they got amazing value in rounds 3-7. They began with Cedric Tillman in the 3rd who I had a 1st grade on and think he’ll be the #2 WR within 1-2 years across from Amari Cooper. He’s that physical X receiver that pairs perfectly with the smaller, faster Cooper who runs precision routes and isn’t a red zone threat. Dawand Jones a massive RT was not even a guy I liked that much, I had a 3rd grade on him-some had a 1st, but in the 4th? That’s good value to me, arguably the steal of the draft to many. PFF had a 1st round grade on him and I never got it as he has quickness issues and doesn’t bend well but he’s also 380 lbs and has long arms so in the run game he’ll be a difference maker. Later in the 4th they took DE Isaiah McGuire who is a power rushing 4-3 SDE who pairs nicely with perennial double digit sack artist Myles Garrett. I gave McGuire a late 2nd grade so he was another steal. Finally they took in the 6th Luke Wypler who I was advocating the Cowboys take in the 3rd or 4th. I have no clue why he dropped but he projects as an early career starter at OG or C and is exactly how you want to address the IOL as starters found on Day 3 are common at those positions. Overall it was a clinic on how to get great value after Rounds 1 & 2 as I think they’ll come out of the draft with 3-4 starters and all at ridiculously cheap salaries.

Steelers: The Steelers had the best draft of any team in my opinion as they got 5 players in my top 40, 4 outside the first round, and those highly graded players are how you really win a draft. It’s always fun to grab a guy I ranked 80th at 210 or something but if I rank them 80th there is still a decent chance they are a bust. It’s good value but might end up being nothing whereas getting 5 players I grade as at least mid 2nd round grades means I expect all of them to become starters. Going into the draft I knew Nick Herbig was going to be one of my “steals” this draft as no one mentioned him despite him being one of PFF’s highest graded pass rushers each of the past two seasons and one of the only rushers in this class to have back to back double digit sack seasons. Great production, great Combine results, and great PFF grades usually means you’ll be a quality starter but somehow he still dropped to the 4th round. That was their best value pick but moving up in the first to sneak past the Jets for OT Broderick Jones (OT1 on my board, went OT4) was a steal in it’s own way. Word is Belichick traded down with the Steelers on a worse offer solely to fuck the Jets and it felt that way as Jones easily could be the best OT from this class and the gap between his consensus grade vs. the next OT (Anton Harrison) was huge. I love when a team can maneuver around the draft board and get “their guys” all weekend. It started on Thursday with Jones and continued on Friday with the first pick as they got Joey Porter Jr. who not only was good value but of course had the family connection through his dad, a longtime Steelers great. Knowing how to move up for value at a key spot while also getting value later on cheaper picks (Keeanu Benton at 49 was the exact same grade and profile I gave Mazi Smith at 26) is something the Cowboys could learn from. I feel like the Steelers draft really hit home for me as it was what the Cowboys draft COULD have been. They moved up a few spots to get their guy (Kincaid at 24 would have been a great trade up), then they took a run stopping DT in the mid 2nd (Keannu Benton = Mazi Smith), and then later got a steal in TE Darnell Washington who pairs perfectly with the smaller, more athletic Pat Freirmuth (or a lesser version like Jake Ferguson). It was a great example of value equaling need, something many teams struggle to accomplish as it too often feels like they choose one over the other.

With that being said we come to the Cowboys draft. First I’d like to point off that my grade of them is far from the only grade that matters but most people saw them with one of the worst drafts of any team. Chad Reuter ranked their class 23rd, Dane Bugler ranked it 24th, Thor Nystrom ranked it 32nd, and Ryan Wilson ranked it 32nd as well. So most people had them as a bottom 3rd to worst draft class. That’s the range I’d give them too as I saw all of their picks except Deuce as being a slight reach to huge reach. Thor wrote, “It felt like Dallas went into each day with a plan to take specific positions in specific slots, and were unable to move off the plan to take advantage of the values dropping to them.” I thought the same thing as the Kincaid selection by the Bills at 25 probably changed the entire course of the draft for Dallas and had a domino effect. If Kincaid was there at 26, I think he was their pick, which then means Luke isn’t their pick in the 2nd so they go either DT or OL in the 2nd (Cyrus O’Torrence OG, John Michael Schmitz OG/C, Zacch Pickens DT, Byron Young DT all being good values taken in the next 12 picks), and if the Cowboys came out of the first round with a high end playmaker like Kincaid in the 1st and a value pick in the trenches in the 2nd then no one would have complained about their Rounds 4-7 no namers. The issue is that on first glance the draft appears to have netted a high end run stopping DT, a developmental TE, a developmental LB, a scat back, and a bunch of late round roll of the dice types. Maybe some of these hit but it felt like their 1st was a 2nd, their 2nd was a 3rd, their 3rd was a 4th, and then they went straight to late round developmental guys. There was no value in any pick outside of Deuce off my board or the “Consensus Board”. That board is the proper one to go off of as it’s fine if I don’t like a guy the Cowboys take but if no one likes them at that spot then it’s likely a bad pick. Perfect example is Trevon Diggs who I famously hated. Obviously I was wrong on that but I said that draft review about Diggs having some big time supporters around the league as a steal. No one saw Luke Schoonmaker as a steal at 58. It’s even worse in that he was the 5th tight end taken yet still in the 2nd round. This TE class was deep but not that deep and I think the Cowboys were caught with their pants down when LaPorta and Musgrave were taken FAR faster than anticipated. The smart strategy would have been to move off the TE position and address something else but they instead reached, showing TE was the huge need I thought it was and why a move up for Kincaid made so much sense in the first. I think he’s going to be one of the best TEs in the league within 1-2 years and it’ll be a huge pain for Cowboys fans but moving down from 26 into the early 30s for a Levis wanting team like the Titans would have made sense too. That goes back to my statement on the Steelers draft as moving up for Kincaid made sense but moving back for LaPorta (or Mayer or whomever you valued at TE a huge need spot) would have also made sense. TE was a huge position of need and this was one of the better TE classes in recent years so it’s disappointing the Cowboys only came away with a developmental type. Yet the same could be said of the RB position as well. The Cowboys cut Zeke, franchised Pollard, and desperately needed to add a quality #2 back if they were to be able to low ball Pollard and/or moneyball the position with Dak set to be a $60 million cap hit in 2024. Instead the Cowboys passed on these RBs I highly valued (I added how many times the Cowboys passed on each back): Roschon Johnson (1x), Israel Abanikanda (2x), Evan Hull (3x), Zach Evans (5x), DeWayne McBride (5x). All of these backs were of the bigger, more physical variety who seemed like a natural pairing with Pollard. Tony isn’t the biggest back and isn’t the most durable yet the Cowboys are 1 injury away from rolling out Ronald Jones and 170 pound Deuce as their RBBC. It’s a scary proposition but the OL depth is just as scary as 1 injury brings a no-name into the starting lineup and the Cowboys are coming off a season where Tyron Smith and Terrance Steele missed extensive time. The team stated Schoonmaker is a great blocker and fits the position profile they wanted. It also fits the defense first draft philosophy the team seemed to employ this year and matches McCarthy’s comments about Kellen Moore’s fast paced offense and his mismatched goal of scoring the most points. It all adds up to the Cowboys wanting to be a more run heavy team and I’m all for that but they then pass on Darnell Washington twice at TE, the best blocking TE I’ve graded in years, and don’t address the running back position till pick 212 and with a scat back? That’s the problem with this draft as no matter how you cut it, it doesn’t really make sense. TE was a need area so that’s why you reached for Schoonmaker? Then why didn’t you trade up in the 1st for Kincaid or in the 2nd for Mayer/LaPorta? DT is an important position and worthy of a 1st round grade? Then why did you always undervalue it and never spend a Top 50 pick on the position at any time in the past 25 YEARS! If you are shifting to a more run centric team (trade Cooper, not re-sign Schultz) then why didn’t you address RB until it was the highest player on your board in the 6th round? The Cowboys didn’t show any rhyme or reason in this draft, didn’t address needs properly with high picks, and didn’t get good value. It all adds up to a pretty mediocre haul. On the bright side though, Mazi Smith is a good player and is a reach but not a huge one at 26. I don’t believe in drafting DTs in the first round who aren’t pass rushers but he was an elite run stopper and should start next to Osa on Day 1. I love that fit and see the combination of Mazi as a two gap run stopper and Osa as a one gap penetrator being a great duo. Add in the insane depth the Cowboys have at DE (Parsons/Lawrence, Fowler/Armstrong, Williams) and it’s adding to one of the best DL in the entire league. Also you can’t ignore the possibility/probability that Dan Quinn is the Cowboys coach in 2024. He clearly had a lot of input on this draft and I think the shift in philosophy from never addressing the DT position, something I disliked, to addressing it with their highest pick, something I also disliked (and no I don’t see that as hypocritical because I see DT as a position you can easily address in the 2nd and 3rd round so you should address it there. I have the same opinion on TE which is why only the best like Kincaid should be taken in the 1st), was probably done at Quinn’s urging. Parsons loves Dan Quinn and wants him as the coach. Vander Esch talks openly about his charisma and energy and how they feed off of it. This is becoming a defensive oriented team and I don’t disagree with that as I don’t think you can win with Dak leading a dominant offense and need him to be a game manager with a great defense and run game. Run stopping DT in the last 1st isn’t great value but it does add a needed piece to an already dominant defense so it’s not terrible, I just think it cascaded into many later bad decisions and resulted in a poor draft. Also LB Demarvion Overshown is one of the few picks that had a lot of backers. Louis Reddick said it was his favorite pick of the 3rd round and that caught my eye. Overshown is a very physical player who is still growing into his body (former safety). I like his frame and his physicality but he has poor instincts and is raw so I had him a little later as an early 4th. Another reach for me but at least he has his fan club and I like him next to Damone Clark as that’s another good fit so I can see what they are envisioning with that pick. Finally there were a number of no names on Day 3. PFF had rankings much lower than the Cowboys draft spot on those players and none except Deuce made my evaluation list so all can be considered reaches but I did like one pick after watching the film. Asim Richards the OT out of North Carolina is a good prospect and I would have given him a 3rd round grade. He has a great frame, long arms, and a very bendable body. I see him as a RT long term and, while I would have liked to see the Cowboys take a stud IOL like O’Cyrus Torrence who could start at LG on Day 1, I think Richards is a steal at 169 and could very well be a starting RT in 2024 or 2025 for the Cowboys. Overall I did not like this draft, nor did most draft analysts. The Cowboys rightfully have a great reputation as drafters but it’s really a mixed bag as they are unequivocally the best team drafting 1st rounders (proven by multiple metrics) and have a great history recently on 4th rounders (Richards interestingly was their 4th pick) yet their 2nd and 3rd rounds have been mediocre. I don’t think Mazi will look like a steal like Tyler Smith, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons have but he won’t be a bust like Taco Charlton. The Cowboys added 5 players (Mazi, Luke, Overshown, Asim Richards, and Deuce Vaughn) that I expect to stick. It’s not a great haul and I don’t see any future Pro Bowlers but the roster is still stacked and adding two super physical players on an already great defense shows fans what the future of the Cowboys probably looks like. Expect a ground and pound offense which sets up the Cowboys defensive first philosophy to be even more noticeable as the transition from McCarthy to Quinn continues.